Who’s afraid of RFK?

While RFK may not win the presidency — or even a single state — he can certainly play a crucial role in the eventual results.

It was reported last week that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was considering NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers among the final options for his vice presidential pick. When the story broke, Rodgers was on an ayahuasca retreat in Costa Rica — surely a psychedelic first in American history.

The attacks on Rodgers — and by extension Kennedy — came almost immediately. CNN published a strange piece about how Rodgers had privately shared Sandy Hook conspiracy theories 11 years ago. It was thinly sourced, old and, as I discussed on NewsNation, ethically dubious journalism disguising obvious opposition research.

Its impact is irrelevant, but the moment is instructive. We learned last week that “allies of Biden” have started a Super PAC explicitly aimed at attacking third-party challengers, of which RFK is only the most prominent; Jill Stein and Cornel West are already declared, and while No Labels is pursuing it, that possibility is looking slimmer by the day. The consensus-pushers in our society are worried, and they should be.

The VP pick may not end up being Rodgers, an early supporter of RFK. Others being considered include former “Dirty Jobs” host Mike Rowe — although the smart money is on Nicole Shanahan, a lawyer and major RFK donor.

But what is undoubtedly true is that the RFK run matters — and it could swing 2024 for former President Donald Trump. And the corporate press — who, along with the Democratic establishment, is terrified of a second Trump term — is keenly aware of this prospect.

While Trump and Biden are historically unpopular, RFK has a favorability vs. unfavorability average of 45 percent vs. 35 percent. He’s polling at a steady 15 percent average nationally, and even better in some very important states. He’s performing particularly strong with key demographics like Black and Latino voters, as well as young voters — even beating both Biden and Trump in some polls in that category.

“It seems clear that in any of these battleground states where the margins are going to be thin, the more candidates in the race, the worse for Biden,” Tom Bevan, founder of RealClearPolitics, told me. “A point or two in the big six battleground states could make the difference, depending on where they make the ballot.” (Trump edges Biden in the RCP average in a two-way race, but he performs even better when RFK is included.)

“Making the ballot” is a key element to this. Right now, Kennedy is officially on the ballot in only four states, and getting close in another 15 or so. But that’s not going to make the seismic impact he wants, or needs. So pay attention to what happens over the next two months.

“Part of the reason he’s choosing a running mate now is that some states don’t allow a presidential candidate on the ballot without a running mate,” Chris Stirewalt, host of “The Hill Sunday,” told me. “With the Libertarian nomination, he would have the chance to focus on campaigning. Without it, he will be necessarily focused on ballot access more than anything else.”

Yes, RFK is courting the Libertarian Party, which holds its convention in Washington D.C. beginning on May 24. If he can land that nomination, he will suddenly have a 50-state apparatus ready to make serious electoral waves.

Take Arizona, for example. In the latest poll that includes RFK, he gets 18 percent, while Trump tops Biden 37 percent to 33 percent. Or Wisconsin, where Trump is up two or three points in recent polls that don’t include RFK, but up four or six points with Kennedy factored in. But then … what about if former Green Bay Packers legend Aaron Rodgers is Kennedy’s VP?

“The last time a VP actually mattered was 1960,” said Bevan. “I suppose it’s possible Rodgers could win a few votes, but he’s already a pretty polarizing figuring, not to mention a New York Jet.” Fair point.

Here’s a hypothetical. Kennedy as Libertarian Party nominee gets an infusion of cash and ballot access across the country and begins winning over moderates and anti-Trump/anti-Biden voters (of which there are many). Could he begin to surge in his home state of California? Biden is up around 19 points over Trump in the state. But what if Kennedy ends up getting 25 percent — a not inconceivable number? Could Trump then pull out a Golden State win, and signal a historical landslide shocker?

Bevan poured a little cold water on that one. “The only state that is currently close, that no one is talking about, where Kennedy could make a difference is Minnesota,” he told me. Biden is up about three points over Trump there. But even more than most states, Minnesota has a lot of voters unhappy with the two main choices. One recent poll of a head-to-head matchup found 11 percent “undecided” and another 9 percent choosing “preferring other candidates.” This comes as a remarkable 20 percent of Minnesotans voted “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary earlier this month.

RFK blocking a Biden win in Minnesota would give Trump a victory in a swing state he didn’t even win in 2016.

Which brings us back to the Acela Media, which failed to anticipate the 2016 election results just as badly as Hillary “Never Went to Wisconsin” Clinton did. The media has the mental scars and night terrors and therapy bills to remind them they can’t make the same mistakes again.

So, watch the fury unleashed if RFK emerges as a real player — and particularly in the key swing states. Prepare for all the greatest hits that put Kennedy on the “disinformation dozen” collaboration between the Biden administration, mainstream media and tech platforms, aimed at banishing him from digital existence and polite society. Prepare for hysteria.

Because it’s eminently clear already that while RFK may not win the presidency — or even a single state — he can certainly play a crucial role in the eventual results. He’s a Kennedy, after all.

Steve Krakauer, a NewsNation contributor, is the author of “Uncovered: How the Media Got Cozy with Power, Abandoned Its Principles, and Lost the People” and editor and host of the Fourth Watch newsletter and podcast.