Why did Rishi just call an election when he’s so far behind in the polls?
Does anyone else still have Things Can Only Get Better stuck in their heads?
That’s the song campaigner Steve Bray blasted behind the prime minister yesterday, as he announced a July general election in a speech outside Downing Street.
It’s one of two things people are likely to remember most from that moment – alongside the image of Rishi Sunak completely drenched in London rain.
You might argue it was a fairly inauspicious start for a Conservative campaign that already faced an extremely steep mountain to climb.
The party has been sitting behind Labour in the polls for about a year and a half at this point, and Sunak has historically poor satisfaction ratings with the public.
So why did he decide this was the best time to call a vote?
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For the PM, it might have been less a case of ‘things can only get better’ and more a case of ‘this is about as good as things are ever going to get’.
Yesterday morning, the Office for National Statistics announced that inflation had fallen around 0.9% from March to reach 2.3% – not a long way off from the Bank of England’s 2% target.
This may have been the moment when Sunak decided there was enough ground to run a campaign focusing on the area where the Tories have always been most comfortable: the economy.
There were suggestions he may have also timed the vote to coincide with the first migrant flights to Rwanda, but on LBC this morning he conceded this would happen ‘after the election’.
Where the inflation and national debt figures leave Sunak’s five priorities
Halving inflation and cutting debt were two of Rishi Sunak’s priorities set out for last year.
But figures released on Wednesday show that, while inflation continues to fall towards the target level, national debt has risen.
Plenty of work remains to be done before the government can go into a general election campaign claiming success on all five key issues.
Below, Metro looks at each of his priorities and the progress on achieving them.
– Halve inflation
The Prime Minister met his pledge to halve inflation in 2023.
Mr Sunak needed inflation to fall to below 5.4% in order to meet his target, and the final figures for last year showed this had been achieved, with inflation falling to 4% by December.
The latest figures published on Wednesday show inflation continues to fall towards the Bank of England’s target of 2%, with price rises slowing to 2.3% in April.
This is the lowest level since July 2021, but the decline was smaller than expected as economists had predicted CPI would fall to 2.1% in April.
However, the PM said the news marked ‘an important moment for our country, for the economy, and shows that our plan is working’.
– Grow the economy
Growth over 2023 was weak, with the UK falling into a recession in the second half of the year.
Estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest the economy grew by just 0.1% over the whole year, with the first three months of 2023 being the only quarter of the year that saw any growth.
The UK economy rebounded out of recession with faster-than-expected growth over the first quarter of 2024, according to official figures.
The ONS said gross domestic product is estimated to have risen by 0.6% between January and March.
It comes after two quarters of decline – which means a technical recession – in the second half of 2023.
The International Monetary Fund said the UK economy is set for a ‘soft landing’ as it grows faster than previously expected following recession last year.
But the global financial agency stressed that ambitious structural reforms to improve living standards ‘are urgently needed’ ahead of a general election later this year.
– Reduce debt
The national debt rose over the course of 2023, and remains at levels not seen since the early 1960s.
The latest figures show the UK’s overall national debt was £2.69 trillion in April, or 97.9% of gross domestic product, and 2.5 percentage points more than at the end of April 2023.
Borrowing overshot expectations during the month, in part due to higher debt costs, with the Government having to pay £8.6 billion to service its debt in April. This was the highest amount for 10 months.
The Chancellor’s 4p off national insurance contributions cost around £20 billion.
ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: ‘While central government spending and income overall both rose on this time last year, a large drop in national insurance contributions meant receipts did not grow as fast as spending.’
– Cut NHS waiting lists
NHS waiting lists remain higher than they were when the Prime Minister vowed to cut them but have continued to fall from their peak.
The waiting list for NHS treatment reached an estimated 7.54 million in February, up from 7.21 million in January 2023 when Mr Sunak made his pledge.
Mr Sunak admitted towards the end of last year that he had failed to cut NHS waiting lists but still claimed some success in April with the publication of the latest data, which showed waiting lists had fallen for the fifth month in a row after reaching a peak of 7.77 million in September.
At the time, he said: ‘Today’s statistics clearly show we are making headway towards that goal.
‘A drop of almost 200,000 in the last five months shows what the NHS can do for patients.’
The figures also showed a significant drop in the number of people waiting more than 18 months for treatment, which had risen in each of the previous six months.
However, some 36,000 people waiting for community treatment, which included some of the people waiting the longest, were not included in the figures.
– Stop the boats
The Prime Minister was forced to admit in December that there is no ‘firm date’ for ‘stopping the boats’, despite making it one of his priorities for 2023.
A total of 29,437 people crossed the English Channel in small boats in 2023 and, while this represents a reduction from 45,755 in 2022, the crossings are still a long way from ending.
The number of migrants to have arrived in the UK in small boats across the Channel in 2024 is already approaching the 10,000 mark.
On May 18, the total number of migrants arriving via the route was 9,803.
This compares with 7,217 by the same date last year and 8,693 in 2022.
The Government’s Rwanda Bill became law in April after weeks of parliamentary deadlock, paving the way for deportation flights to get off the ground.
However, it remains to be seen whether the legislation will deter significant numbers of migrants from crossing the Channel, as ministers have claimed.
But any evidence that the number of people crossing is reducing will be hailed as a success by the Government as it seeks to make progress on a flagship policy.
And there’s always a chance that Labour make a monumental cock-up on the campaign trail over the next six weeks and dramatically knock their chances. Sunak might have ideas about the opposition’s biggest weaknesses and how he can make them squirm.
However, the biggest reason for calling the election was probably the simplest: he’s running out of road.
British law requires an election to be held within five years of the last one, which means the PM had until January 2025 at the very latest to hold the vote.
Opposition parties were already arguing that he’d overstayed his welcome, and pushing the date much later would not have helped stave off the image of desperation.
An avid proponent of maths, Sunak might have calculated that it was the time to grit his teeth and plough ahead – if an electoral miracle is going to happen for the Tories, he may as well gamble on it happening in the next six weeks.
Key questions about the General Election
Rishi Sunak has finally called a General Election. Here are the key things to know:
– When will the next election take place?
The election will be held on Thursday July 4.
– What happens to Parliament and the Government when an election is called?
Once the King grants the Prime Minister permission to hold a general election, the Prime Minister can set a date to dissolve Parliament and the polls take place 25 working days later.
Parliament must complete all business before it is dissolved – bills that have not already received Royal Assent will not become law and cannot be continued into the next parliament.
Prorogation – as the formal end to the parliamentary session is known – may take place a few days before dissolution.
MPs must clear their offices – whether they intend to stand down or run in the election.
– How will the election campaigns work?
Parties decide themselves when to launch their manifestos – since 1997, Labour and the Conservatives have launched their manifestos between 18 and 29 days before the polling date, according to the Institute for Government.
– How are the parties faring in the polls?
The Labour Party is leading with 45%, with the Conservatives trailing behind at 24%, opinion polls published May 22 show.
Reform was polling at 11%, the Lib Dems at 10% and the Green Party at 6%.
This is based on a seven-day rolling average.
– What are the key policy battlegrounds?
The long-term future of the NHS and immigration policy will likely be key battlegrounds in the run-up to the General Election.
Sir Keir Starmer recently unveiled a pledge card with six ‘first steps’ a Labour Government would take. These include measures to invest in the NHS, education and policing, to set up a new national energy company and an elite border force, and to promote economic stability.
– What ID will voters need on election day?
Acceptable forms of ID include a passport, driving licence, Proof of Age Standards Scheme (Pass) cards, Blue Badges and some concessionary travel cards. The Government has also said it intends to make veterans’ ID cards a valid form of voter identification after former service personnel were turned away from polling stations at local elections.
Voters can also choose to cast their ballots by post, for example, if they live abroad or are away from home on the day. This must be organised ahead of time.
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