UK coronavirus death rate ‘clearly steeper than Italy’

New data also suggest the USA is ‘destined to end up the worst-affected country in the world.’

The UK appears to be on course to have a steeper coronavirus death rate than Italy, concerning new statistics suggest. 

Both the UK and USA are set to pass Spain’s record of peak daily deaths as the Covid-19 crisis escalates, according to statistics put together by The Financial Times. 

While Italy and Spain’s daily tolls appear to be plateauing, Britain now seems to be on a steeper trajectory than coronavirus-battered Italy, while the USA is ‘destined to end up the worst-affected country in the world.’

Today, the UK recorded another 708 deaths as its total deaths topped 4,000. 

In the USA, case and death numbers continue to rise at an alarming rate – now standing at more than 300,000 and 8,000 respectively, according to worldometers. 

John Burn-Murdoch, who specialises in statistics for the FT, explained on Twitter that, cumulatively, the US’s death slope is ‘still far steeper than any other at this stage.’

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NEW: Fri 3 April update of coronavirus trajectories

First, daily new deaths
• US & UK both likely to pass Spain for peak daily deaths
• Daily death tolls in the thousands to become the norm in US
• UK now clearly steeper than Italy

Live charts: https://t.co/JxVd2cG7KI pic.twitter.com/82L1B5mx35

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 3, 2020

Asking ‘why’, he continued: ‘(The) US is now dealing with multiple overlapping outbreaks, keeping the pace up. US will likely have highest death toll globally within a week.’

Mr Burn-Murdoch continued: ‘US still boldly going where no country has gone before, at >20k new confirmed cases per day. Destined to end up the worst-affected country in the world.’

Italy, and more recently Spain, have been seen as epicentres of the outbreak but appear to have turned a corner in recent days, following strict lockdowns.

Both countries, and France, now appear to have a plateauing daily death rates. 

And cases in cumulative form:
• US very much in uncharted territory. Now accounts for 1-in-4 confirmed cases worldwide
• India perhaps stabilising again. Shows the importance of watching medium-term trends, not short term bumps which could be due to data backlogs pic.twitter.com/T9YCSMplfG

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) April 3, 2020

South Korea and China’s death rates appear to have been stable for far longer. 

Meanwhile, in Sweden – one of the few countries not implementing a lockdown – daily new infections seem to have picked up again after flattening following an apparent mid-March peak.

All the data relies on official figures being accurate and does depend on the level of testing each country is undertaking.

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