What the UK’s coronavirus death rate graphs really look like on true scale

The increase is masked by one axis leaping from gaps of 100 to 9,000.

A Government graph showing coronavirus death rates during the UK’s daily press conference suggests a far less alarming increase than a standard graph might. 

It means the line highlighting the increase in deaths follows a fairly steady 45 degree increase – while figures plotted in a different way reveal a worryingly dramatic upward curve. 

On the Cabinet Office’s graph, one axis – showing the number of deaths – has equally-sized gaps to stand in for different numerical increases – with 0 to 100; 100 to 1,000 and 1,000 to 10,000 all given the same portion of the axis. Meanwhile, another widely cited graph uses intervals of 500-1,000; 1,000-1,500 and 1,500-2,000.  

That means the increase in Covid-19-linked deaths is far steeper than the official graph’s line implies. The chart from the site worldometers, which has been tracking coronavirus data worldwide, shows a more dramatic curve, by having intervals of 500 on the left axis.

There are a number of ways of plotting graphs, with the Cabinet Office Briefing Room chart using a ‘logarithmic’ scale and the worldometer a ‘linear’ scale. 

Yesterday there was a startling increase in the number of people who died after contracting the virus in the UK, with the latest toll of 381 taking the total to 1,789. There were 180 deaths on Monday and 209 on Sunday. 

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It came as new data from the Office for National Statistics suggested the true death count could be 20% higher than official figures have shown.

The official chart, shown on slides at a press briefing on national TV, shows a ‘global comparison of deaths’, which illustrates how Britain is on a roughly similar trajectory to France.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, the chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said: ‘There is no “right” way of drawing the graphs.

‘A linear scale is appropriate for looking at absolute levels, and so giving an impression of the magnitude of the problem. 

‘But it is difficult to use them to compare trends and so on.- a logarithmic scale is appropriate when looking at relative levels –  comparing trends between countries, monitoring rates of increase in cases and deaths, ‘doubling times’ and so on.’ 

I’ve put together an interactive visualisation of the numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths. The design is very much inspired by the @jburnmurdoch’s charts in the FT. 1/ https://t.co/XLdNlKGa8a pic.twitter.com/bwiUwINjbZ

— Jo Michell (@JoMicheII) April 1, 2020

He continued: ‘But it makes it difficult to get an impression of the size of what is going on.

‘There is also the issue of whether to show cumulative or daily counts – these also have their advantages and disadvantages.’

Tracking deaths since ‘day zero’ – the first day a country records 50 deaths (March 16 in the UK) – the Government chart shows that the country is following a similar course to a number of countries, with Italy, the United States and France all relatively close. 

It is not clear from the chart when Britain’s growth will trail off, after the country imposed strict lockdown rules.  

Viral videos have been explaining the use of statistics and the importance in the increase in the rate of deaths.

Metro.co.uk has contacted the Government for comment. 

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