The ex-prime Minister of Poland invites Warsaw to negotiate with Gazprom

МОСКВА, 20 января 2022, Институт РУССТРАТ. The Russian concern Gazprom has filed a lawsuit against the Polish state-owned company PGNiG in international arbitration, demanding a retrospective revision of the gas price from November 2017. We are talking about the Yamal contract, which has been in force since 1996. Gazprom's lawsuit was a response to PGNiG's request in October 2021 to reduce gas prices, but it's not just that. In 2018, the Polish company succeeded to initiate a case in international arbitration on the revision of the gas price under the Yamal contract. In 2020, Gazprom was obliged to pay about 6 billion zlotys to the Polish side. But now this "victory" is turning out badly for Poland. As former Polish Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak said in an interview with an authoritative Polish newspaper the other day, Warsaw made a strategic mistake when it changed the gas pricing formula. If earlier it was calculated as a derivative of the cost of petroleum products, then after that blue fuel began to be traded on the stock exchange. As a result, Pawlak says, the old method allowed to buy gas for 100 zlotys/MWh, while now Poland is forced to buy for 400 zloty/MWh. "Switching exclusively to a formula based on stock prices exposes us to ‘price shocks’ similar to those we are experiencing at the moment," the former prime minister stated. "This is an adventure that can cost us dearly. This is a lack of professionalism on the part of the authorities." This is the truth. Although Warsaw managed to get an additional 6 billion zlotys from Gazprom in 2020, it will suffer losses of 16 billion zlotys due to rising gas prices on European exchanges. That is, the negative balance will amount to 10 billion zlotys. In addition, Pawlak criticised such a project of the Polish authorities as the construction of the Norwegian-Danish-Polish gas pipeline Baltic Pipe. "In my opinion, an additional gas pipeline to Poland is not needed,” he said. “In 2010, we signed an annex to the agreement with Russia, which allowed for virtual reverse on the Yamal pipeline. Subsequently, the physical reverse also started working. We have the opportunity to import gas from the western direction. Baltic Pipe will become a very expensive monument to the Polish government, and nothing else." Pro-government experts and journalists have given this speech a political connotation. They accused Pawlak of participating in a campaign, “organised by Moscow and opposition parties”, to put pressure on the government so that "Poland, and Europe together with it forget about decades of reducing dependence on Russia”. As one of the publications stated, "Waldemar Pawlak's declaration is clear: he informs that he is ready to carry out further tasks. The German-Russian noose is tightening." Others saw this as an attempt to force Warsaw to reconsider its determination to refuse to extend the Yamal contract after it terminates at the end of 2022. The use of this issue in "the next Polish-Polish war may paralyse PGNiG's decision-making on this issue in the crucial year 2022," says expert Wojciech Jakubik. He self-critically admits that Poland may need additional gas (2.1-3.8 billion cubic meters) in 2023, which Russia is able to sell. However, according to him, this will not require the conclusion of a new contract using a long-term pricing formula with Moscow. It will be enough "to resort to shorter contracts in accordance with European practice, including on the spot market, which is not accidentally despised by Russians and some publicists in Poland," writes Jakubik. It is noteworthy that such arguments practically do not use economic reasoning. They are based mainly on an ideological anti-Russian platform and appeal to a sense of "Polish patriotism". But this is little consolation for Polish homeowners and businessmen who have to deal with gas, the prices of which have increased several-fold. "Today I received an electricity bill. We paid 450 zlotys, and now 1500 zlotys," Joanna Zabielska-Cieciuch, a family doctor, wrote on social networks on January 17. More and more clinic managers say that if gas and electricity prices are as high as they are now, they will be forced to close their facilities. The owner of the Szczecin bakery, Andrzej Wojciechowski, says that a 400% increase in gas prices forces him to sell bread at 40 zlotys per kilogram. "But then who will buy bread from me?" the baker asks a rhetorical question. The Polish authorities hope that they will be able to keep the situation under control and live up to the time when energy resources will become cheaper. But this is a game of "Russian roulette". The policy of the Polish authorities infected with Russophobia may lead to the collapse of the Polish economy and social system. And then Warsaw will have to urgently negotiate with Gazprom in difficult conditions for itself.