Team LeBron is somehow favored over Team Giannis before the NBA All-Star teams have even been decided

Trying to predict an All-Star game is one thing. Trying to do it before the teams are decided is just wild.

For the first time since the NBA changed the format of the NBA All-Star Game to allow the voting leader of each conference to select their teams, the All-Star draft will be held directly before the game.

It’s going to make for fascinating television to see each team captain, this year LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo, pick teammates right there on the spot like a schoolyard basketball game involving superstar athletes.

It’s also going to make it hard for bettors to gain an edge, not knowing how the teams stack up until right before tip-off. Unsurprisingly that didn’t stop sportsbooks from placing early odds on the game.

Team LeBron (-125) is favored over Team Giannis (+105) at BetMGM and other sportsbooks, which sounds surprising on the surface. Most people will tell you Antetokounmpo is the better player in 2023, having more recent team and individual success. Plus, James is battling a foot injury. Judging off captains alone, you would think Team Giannis should have an edge. On the contrary, DraftKings and FanDuel have them as a two-point underdog.

Team LeBron is undefeated at the All-Star Game (5-0).

Early odds like James’ team to come out on top again over Team Giannis (even though teams haven’t been decided yet).

I’m seeing a 2-point spread across different books. pic.twitter.com/sk2IvRGSi2

— prince j. grimes (@pgprincej) February 16, 2023

It begs the question how exactly they’re determining who should be favored and by how many. The answer might just be rooted in how well James has drafted. In five straight years as a captain, Team LeBron is undefeated at the All-Star Game, including wins against Team Giannis in 2019 and 2020, and wins with Antetokounmpo as a teammate the past two years against teams captained by Kevin Durant.

It’s silly to think any past success in an exhibition where players go half-speed 90% of the time will translate in the future. So this is still a coin toss if you ask me. But based on past success, it makes sense that Team LeBron is favored.