6 dark-horse College Football Playoff contenders in 2019

Looking beyond the top favorites, what other teams have an outside shot to make the College Football Playoff?

Days before the official start to the college football season and a little more than a week out from the first true football Saturday, Clemson and Alabama are massive favorites to win the national championship.

Shocking, we know.

Beyond those two teams, the competition for the remaining two spots in the four-team College Football Playoff is a little less clear cut. So it’s possible that a dark-horse playoff candidate could sneak its way.

Of course, a team with an outside shot at the playoff would not only need to have an incredible regular season that exceeds anyone’s expectations, but it also probably needs a little bit of luck and a few good bounces throughout the year. Though unlikely, it’s still very possible for a dark-horse team to contend for a national championship.

But what makes a dark-horse playoff team? That answer is subjective, but we came up with our own criteria.

Teams among the top-5 in the 2019 preseason odds to make the playoff are excluded for obvious reasons, as are teams that have played in a playoff game in the last two seasons. That means Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Notre Dame and Oklahoma are ineligible, and we’re throwing in Ohio State too because — despite having a new coach and transfer quarterback — most people would probably agree it’s not a dark-horse team either.

Here are six teams — listed, not ranked — that could have an outside shot at the playoff.

Couple things to note first. Of the 20 playoff teams so far, eight of them have had Heisman Trophy finalists on their rosters that year. Also, in the first five seasons of the College Football Playoff, a two-loss team has not made it, and, based on the selection committee’s past behavior, it’s unlikely but possible for a strong not-conference champion to be chosen.

1. No. 6 LSU (10-3 in 2018)

(Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports)

The Tigers could have a path to the College Football Playoff. It’s a difficult one, though not impossible, but it’s a multi-step process, like with anyone else on this list. The top obstacle keeping LSU out of the playoff this year — like it so often is — is being in the same division as Alabama. Rather than hoping the Crimson Tide have an unlikely meltdown, LSU just needs to beat them on the road this year. Beat Bama, end the regular season with no more than one loss, win the SEC championship game and the Tigers can steal a playoff spot. All easier said than done — especially considering they’re riding an eight-game losing streak against Alabama going back to the 2012 BCS title game — but it’s possible.

Despite losing players like Devin White and Greedy Williams on defense, LSU has a strong secondary returning, along with the addition of five-star recruit Derek Stingley — the top cornerback and No. 3 player overall in the country — leading the nation’s fourth-best recruiting class. Couple that with a veteran offense led by quarterback Joe Burrow and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire — though both need to be consistent — and the Tigers could make a run at the playoff. But if Alabama dominates the way it’s expected to, LSU has to win that regular season matchup and advance to the conference title game.

2. No. 13 Oregon (9-4 in 2018)

(Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports)

Whether or not the Ducks are capable of making the playoff could be determined in Week 1. They open the season with against Auburn at AT&T Stadium in Texas, and should they win, it’s reasonable that they could also get the W in their remaining 11 regular-season games and win the Pac-12 championship. Auburn should be a good measuring stick for Oregon, and if the Ducks’ defense can take advantage of the Tigers having a young quarterback — whoever the starter ends up being — they can win. Behind a veteran offensive line, quarterback and preseason Heisman Trophy candidate Justin Herbert is expected to have an explosive year after returning for his senior season instead of entering the 2019 NFL Draft, where he would have easily been one of the top passers.

Should Oregon lose its season-opener but win out, a one-loss Pac-12 team, even if it’s the conference champ, might not be playoff-worthy compared with the other contenders. If multiple playoff favorites somehow don’t lose a game, an undefeated Pac-12 champion might not even cut it. The Ducks could be looking at at least a 10-win season, but with an early road game against Stanford, their playoff hopes could also be ruined by the end of September.

3. No. 22 Syracuse (10-3 in 2018)

(Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports)

A serious dark-horse team here, the Orange have to beat Clemson in the Carrier Dome in September. Syracuse lost to the Tigers by four points last season and shocked them with a three-point upset in 2017, so it’s possible with a few lucky breaks. Aside from that loss to Clemson last season, Syracuse’s only other defeats were in overtime to Pitt and an ugly one to eventual playoff team Notre Dame. The Orange don’t have to deal with the Fighting Irish this season, so after Clemson, their toughest games might be Pitt and NC State. But if Dino Babers and his team can pull off an upset against Clemson, get to the ACC championship game and win and then maybe get some help from chaos in another conference or two, they could get to the playoff.

To win 10 or 11 games, they’ll be heavily reliant on their defense, which has eight starters returning. And they’ll need all the stops they can get as sophomore quarterback Tommy DeVito works on replacing Eric Dungey — who has the program record for career passing yards — as the starter.

4. No. 10 Texas (10-4 in 2018)

(Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)

It might not even be fair to call Texas a dark-horse playoff candidate while having the 8th-best odds to be among the final four. But if the Longhorns return to the Big 12 championship game, win and have no more than one loss on their record — and it can’t be a bad loss — it would be hard for the committee to deny Texas a shot. That makes their path to a playoff spot a bit simpler than the others here.

However, they would still most likely have to play Oklahoma twice again, and if they go 1-1, they need to win in the game that matters more — the currently hypothetical Big 12 title game matchup. And we’re still not ready to say Texas is back back, but should it build upon last season’s 10 wins, that may change.

5. No. 17 UCF (12-1 in 2018)

(Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)

Call it disrespectful, arrogant, rude, typical, whatever, but the Knights almost certainly aren’t going to make the playoff. Despite forcefully making the argument a couple years ago and being 25-1 over the last two seasons, another undefeated season for the Group of 5 team likely still isn’t good enough compared with one-loss Power 5 squads. And repeating their success might be particularly difficult without quarterback McKenzie Milton, who finished sixth in Heisman voting last year. Milton went down with a gruesome knee injury in November and is not expected to play this season. So with UCF looking to Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush, another one-loss season might be out of reach — much less the playoff. However, if — IF, IF, IF, IF — the Big Ten and Big 12 implode while the Pac-12’s champ has multiple losses, UCF could finally get what it wants.

Either way, the Knights are making a lot of noise and helping push the conversation forward about the playoff format and possible expansion, and that’s all good. College football needs a team like this. But until the Knights’ schedule gets stronger and they continue winning, the selection committee — should it continue its past behavior — will keep ignoring them.

6. No. 15 Utah (9-5 in 2018)

(Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports)

The Utes could really capitalize if they repeat as Pac-12 South champions — a feat that shouldn’t be too difficult as the division doesn’t have another obvious challenger — and if other conference title contenders falter. Their biggest challenge should be Washington on the road, and they might have to face the Huskies a second time if both teams advance to the conference championship game.

As USA TODAY Sports noted, the Utes’ defensive line is anchored by two All-America contenders in Bradlee Anae and Leki Fotu, while veteran running back Zack Moss can carry the offense after Utah led the Pac-12 in rushing yards in 2018. The Utes are a dark-horse team in a dark-horse conference, but if they return to the conference championship game and win this time, they could have an outside shot at the playoff with some help from chaos in other conferences.

Who’s not in this group?

Auburn: The Tigers not only have to adjust with a young quarterback — again, we still don’t know who that will be — but they also have a rough schedule with games against Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M after opening the season against Oregon.

Washington: The Huskies are facing a lot of turnover this season — a big reason why Oregon or Utah can take control in the Pac-12 — so it doesn’t seem like their year to return to the playoff.

The Big Ten: Beyond Ohio State and Michigan, which have good preseason odds to make it to the playoff, it would likely take way more than luck for teams like Penn State, Michigan State or Wisconsin to get a shot at a playoff spot.