GOP plays the Trump card at its own peril

Trump is more likely to pick a second in command who is likely to follow him to the depths of hell and defeat in the fall for him and his MAGA followers. 

Donald Trump may not own Trump Tower for long but he owns the Republican Party lock, stock and barrel through Election Day. The GOP will pay a price in November for playing the Trump card and letting him run wild. 

After securing the GOP presidential nomination weeks ago, the former failed president managed to push his favored Ohio Republican Senate candidate, former used car dealer Bernie Moreno, over the top in Tuesday’s primary. Moreno will face endangered Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown in November. 

Moreno’s win proved Trump’s dominance over what used to be the Party of Lincoln, but it comes with a cost. Both Trump and Democrats benefitted from the primary outcome. 

Moreno was the most devoted Trump clone in the spirited three-way race for the nod; therefore, he is the easiest candidate for Brown to defeat in November.  

So much so that a Democratic independent expenditure group affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) spent almost $3 million for an ad boosting Moreno in the GOP primary. 

Trump’s staunch support for Moreno is just one sign of his determination to rally his red capped acolytes to the polls at the expense of reaching out to independent-minded voters in the Cleveland and Cincinnati suburbs.  

These voters and their counterparts in the suburbs of Phoenix, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee will determine whether Republicans win the White House and gain control of the U.S. Senate.  

So far, Trump has given every indication he will go full tilt MAGA in his quest for a second term. But a series of right-hand turns won’t lead him directly to residency in the White House or Republicans to control of the Capitol. 

Incendiary statements that disturb swing voters are still the order of the day for the Donald. At a campaign appearance for Moreno just before primary day, Trump let it all hang out.  

He said that there would be a “bloodbath” if he loses the election. In the same speech he doubled down on his criticism of undocumented immigrants when he described some of them as “animals,” not "people.”  

He also promised to pardon the violent weapon wielding rioters who invaded the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He described them as “unbelievable patriots” and said the imprisoned traitors were “hostages.”

The former president’s hard right campaign extends beyond words to deeds.  

As Trump’s grip on his party tightens, his bad behavior and angry rhetoric squeezes out officials who served him during his first and, hopefully, only term in the White House.  

Trump’s Vice President Mike Pence recently announced that he would not endorse his former boss. Nikki Haley, Trump’s United Nations ambassador and his closest rival for the GOP nod, has pointedly refused to support him weeks after she left the race. 

The absence of Pence and Haley endorsements for their party’s presumptive standard bearer raise the question of whether the Grand Old Party will break camp in Ronald Reagan’s big tent or Trump’s pup tent. 

But the clearest sign of Trump’s intention was his list of potential running mates. It included a number of die-hard Trump clones like South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott but not Haley, the woman who proved to be his strongest competitor for the GOP grand prize.

If Trump weren’t Trump, and more mindful of independents, he would add Haley to the ticket. His calling card in his caucus and primary wins was the angry and bellicose temperament which the MAGA faithful can’t get enough of. But the anger doesn’t work as well with the swing voters who are tired of his invective. 

Haley is the perfect remedy. She shares Trump’s extremist positions on abortion and immigration but she does it with Southern charm and a smile on her face. She’s an extremist like Trump but not nearly as bombastic. 

Her persistence in the GOP race demonstrates that she has an independent streak, which is the last thing Trump wants in a running mate, even if it helps him and other Republicans win. 

Trump is more likely to pick a second in command who will follow him to the depths of hell and defeat in the fall. 

Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster, CEO of Bannon Communications Research and the host of the  progressive political podcast Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.