Expert sums up Armenia’s foreign policy in 2016
Last year was a year of challenges for Armenia’s foreign policy.
The four-day war in early April, which was followed by a settlement process, proved to be a shock of the year, Gevorg Melikyan, Associate Fellow, Political Developments & Security Programme, Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA), told Tert.am as he summed up Armenia’s foreign policy and relations with great powers throughout the year 2016.
The four-day war and process of settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
The Armenian side has for over 20 years been seeking a peaceful settlement of the conflict. The settlement process is painful and causes new problems for known or unknown reasons for lack of a new peace agreement, a non-aggression pact signed by Azerbaijan and international pressure on Azerbaijan. In this respect, such developments (i.e. the four-day war) are painful processes for Armenian society.
The OSCE Minsk Group is viewed as a mediator in this process, proposing to the conflicting parties solutions that may or may not be accepted. The OSCE Minsk Group should not be expected to force either party to accept its proposals nor can it do so under its mandate.
Under the circumstances, instead of knocking at the door of the OSCE Minsk Group, the Armenian side should be well aware of its own policy and force the enemy into steps that are in the Armenian side’s interests.
Recognition of the Armenian Genocide by the German Bundestag
It did not actually change anything in international recognition of the Armenian Genocide. Only 20 or 30 percent of countries could recognize it, which does not guarantee quality.
Turkey will never admit the Armenian Genocide and cannot be forced to do so. Different tools and tactics are needed for Turkey rather than France, Germany or the US, to admit the fact. Turkey maintains excellent relations with Germany and with the other states that have recognized the Armenian Genocide. Even if the United States recognized the Armenian Genocide, it would not make Turkey do it. Turkey may just refuse to accept it.
The Armenian Cause was not on the agenda in Turkey.
Armenian-Turkish diplomatic processes cannot be known as confidential negotiations took place.
Armenia-EU relations
A framework agreement between Armenia and the EU was delayed for political reasons. A few years ago Armenia refused to sign an association agreement with the EU and joined a different union.
The EU discontinued negotiations with Armenia and resumed them over a framework agreement. In fact, given the situation, the EU is trying to adapt the new agreement to it. Overcoming the political obstacles requires time.
No agreement will be signed before April.