11/10/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Seoul must revamp North Korea policy under Biden era

2. Moon hopes to continue Trump's engagement with N. Korea

3. ‘Squeezing’ N. Korea for nuclear talks could backfire: experts

4. S. Korean lawmakers planning visits to U.S. to form ties with Biden

5. Defense experts predict quick cost-sharing deal between South Korea, Biden administration

6. 21 USFK-affiliated individuals test positive for COVID-19

7. China and North Korea are allies, but what happens if Kim Jong-Un goes too far?

8. New virus cases in triple digits for 3rd day; authorities warn of upping social distancing level

9. Why Joe Biden could face a North Korean nuclear standoff before he even takes office

10. S. Korea considering arranging Moon-Biden phone talks at 'appropriate time': foreign ministry

11. A simple strategy for negotiating with North Korea in the next administration

12. New challenges and potential for the U.S.-South Korea alliance under Biden And Moon

13. For South Korea’s president, Biden's win is both good news and bad news

14. Activists call for U.N. probe of 'voluntary' North Korea repatriation from Japan'

15. South Korea investigation ongoing into North Korean man's defection

16. Late Pres. Kim Dae-jung exchanged letters with Biden in the 1980s

17. Authorities in locked down Hyesan sell rice to hungry families

 

1. Seoul must revamp North Korea policy under Biden era

Dong-A Ilbo · November 10, 2020

It is critical that Seoul re-examine its assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime and its objectives to dominate the Korean peninsula. And there needs to be combined (ROK/US) analysis and strategy development.

 Here is my recommendation from a forthcoming paper assessing the last four years and making recommendations for the future (yes, brace yourselves for all the think tanks offering advice to the next administration):

On October 30th President-elect Biden published a special contribution to Yonhap News Service outlining his views on the ROK/U.S. alliance and security on the Korean peninsula:

“Words matter -- and a president's words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades.”[1]

Develop an Alliance Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: Through the existing State Department-Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy working group[2] reassess the strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime and its objective to dominate the Korean peninsula.  Develop a combined strategy with a long-term focus on solving the “Korea question,” e.g., unification, in addition to deterrence, defense, and denuclearization.[3]

[1] Vice President Joe Biden, “Special contribution by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden,” Yonhap News, October 30, 2020, (https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201030000500325)

[2] David Maxwell, “Strategic Working Group Strengthens U.S.-South Korea Alliance,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies Policy Brief, January 19, 2020,( https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/01/03/strategic-working-group-strengthens-u-s-south-korea-alliance/)

[3] The Korean War Armistice Agreement, Panmunjom, July 27, 1953, (https://www.usfk.mil/Portals/105/Documents/SOFA/G_Armistice_Agreement.pdf) See Paragraph 60 for the “Korea question.”

 

2. Moon hopes to continue Trump's engagement with N. Korea

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Jin-myung & Ahn Jun-yong · November 10, 2020

Please, President Moon, re-examine your strategic assumptions about North Korea. The past four years (and the past 7 decades) provides irrefutable evidence that your assumptions (that Kim Jong-Un wants peace, is willing to reconcile, will negotiate in good faith, and will denuclearize if he receives security guarantees and sufficient concessions) are false. You cannot base strategy on these false assumptions. Furthermore, it is time to develop a combined ROK/US alliance strategy for dealing with North Korea as it really is and not as we would wish it to be.

 

3. ‘Squeezing’ N. Korea for nuclear talks could backfire: experts

Korea Herald · Choi Si-young · November 10, 2020

Will they turn these words into action?

I hope the incoming Biden administration will listen to the advice of its advisors rather than dangerous recommendations of simple appeasement.

 

4. S. Korean lawmakers planning visits to U.S. to form ties with Biden

Yonhap News Agency · 김나영 · November 10, 2020

Four years ago, I participated in similar events with Korean legislators and government officials asking to figure out the incoming Trump administration. The thing that is ingrained in my memory is this assessment from an American scholar who said there are three things that guide then President-elect Trump and his decision making: 1) his personal satisfaction, well-being, and how a decision affects him; 2) his family; and 3) his perception that he is winning (everything is judged in terms of "I win, you lose").   I also remember the advice on how to deal with SMA negotiations (cost sharing). To meet the future demands for funding US troops in Korea known to be forthcoming, an American recommended that South Korea simply reduce the amount of US defense articles it buys and shift those funds to the cost sharing agreement. US defense companies would see reduced revenue, but it would be judged a win because the Koreans would be "forced" to pay more for US troops. This was in November 2016.

 

5. Defense experts predict quick cost-sharing deal between South Korea, Biden administration

Stars & Stripes · Seth Robson · November 10, 2020

I think Koreans would make a mistake in thinking that a new administration will simply agree to current proposals. I am sure they are going to thoroughly examine the issues. Yes, it will not make exorbitant demands. But it will want to ensure a fair and equitable sharing of costs and there are some costs (unique to US forces stationed in Korea) that are rising. These costs, such as declining access to adequate training facilities, will drive up training costs if US forces have to train off-peninsula to maintain qualifications in accordance with regulations.

 

6. 21 USFK-affiliated individuals test positive for COVID-19

Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · November 10, 2020

This is troubling on one hand and yet also gives us confidence in the US military in Korea and how it is handling the pandemic. I worry the Korean government could make demands for more testing or some other mitigating actions before USFK affiliated personnel depart the US. However, it is good these 21 infected personnel were identified and properly processed and isolated to reduce risk.

 

7. China and North Korea are allies, but what happens if Kim Jong-Un goes too far?

National Interest · Robert Farley · November 10, 2020

One of the many $64,000 questions about North Korea (and China)

 

8. New virus cases in triple digits for 3^rd day; authorities warn of upping social distancing level

Yonhap News Agency · 강윤승 · November 10, 2020

 

9. Why Joe Biden could face a North Korean nuclear standoff before he even takes office

Time · Steven Borowiec · November 9, 2020

The danger is if Kim thinks the transition chaos provides him an opportunity to advance his political warfare strategy. If he thinks there will be no serious response from the US and that his actions will result in the incoming administration giving into demands for sanctions relief, he could be sorely mistaken.

 

10. S. Korea considering arranging Moon-Biden phone talks at 'appropriate time': foreign ministry

Yonhap News Agency ·송상호 · November 10, 2020

What is the appropriate time? I would have thought Foreign Minister Kang would be carrying a letter of congratulations on her trip to DC.

 

11. A simple strategy for negotiating with North Korea in the next administration

CSPS (GMU) · George Hutchinson · November 10, 2020

My good friend, George Hutchinson, offers sage advice that I can summarize with Sun Tzu: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.” I just hope we don't need 100 battles to solve the "Korea question."

 

12. New challenges and potential for the U.S.-South Korea alliance under Biden And Moon

Forbes · Scott Snyder · November 9, 2020

Key point from eminent Korea watcher, Scott Snyder. The incoming Biden administration does not mean automatic alignment on North Korea policy.

 

13. For South Korea’s president, Biden's win is both good news and bad news

Foreign Policy · Morten Soendergaard Larsen · November 9, 2020

The fundamental problem will be the difference in strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. We must align our assumptions and then develop a coherent integrated combined strategy to focus on deterrence, defense, denuclearization and solving the "Korea question" (unification).

 

14. Activists call for U.N. probe of ‘voluntary’ North Korea repatriation from Japan’

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · November 9, 2020

The ROK, US, and Japan (and the international community) must focus on North Korean human rights as a basic part of foreign policy and not an exception.

 

15. South Korea investigation ongoing into North Korean man's defection

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · November 9, 2020

I do not know in what part of the DMZ this occurred, but we should keep in mind that, in accordance with the Comprehensive Military Agreement of 2018, at least 12 guard posts within the DMZ have been dismantled and destroyed. I am not sure if that had an effect on this incident. But I would say the over dependence on technology to replace soldiers' boots on the ground increases vulnerability.

 

16. Late Pres. Kim Dae-jung exchanged letters with Biden in the 1980s

Dong-A Ilbo · ksy@donga.com · November 10, 2020

I would attribute this to some young advisors who were unfamiliar with Korea, and Korean culture, and naming conventions.

 

17. Authorities in locked down Hyesan sell rice to hungry families

Daily NK · Lee Chae Un · November 10, 2020

Corruption, dwindling government funds, food shortages, draconian population and resources control measures:  all indicators.

 

“You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity.”

- Robert A. Heinlein, The Green Hills of Earth

“Living beings everywhere compete for the means of existence. Competition takes the more intense form we call conflict when … contenders try to hamper, disable, or destroy rivals.”

- Jack Hirshleifer, The Handbook of Defense Economics, vol 1,  Keith Hartley and Todd Sandler, (eds).

“Human nature will not change. In any future great national trial, compared with the men of this, we shall have as weak and as strong, as silly and as wise, as bad and as good. Let us therefore study the incidents in this [war] as philosophy to learn wisdom from and none of them as wrongs to be avenged.”

- Abraham Lincoln, November 10, 1864