10/22/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Does Palantir See Too Much?
2. Top US general in Afghanistan says he's holding back to give Taliban peace deal a chance
3. The Mystery of the Immaculate Concussion
4. Pentagon's New Plan to Fight China and Russia in the Gray Zone
5. James Stavridis on global order amid potential election chaos
6. Defense Policy Board and China
7. China's influence operations offer glimpse into information warfare's future
8. New American military base in Pacific would show how US-China cold war is heating up fast
9. Canada's Parliament Labels China's Abuses in Xinjiang 'Genocide,' Urges Government Action
10. Cheap drones versus expensive tanks: a battlefield game-changer?
11. The Next Ninety days and China's Coming Invasion of Taiwan: 3 November 2020 as possible D-Day
12. Despite Military Improvements, Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Still 'Highly Risky' Says Former Pentagon Official
13. Department of Defense Releases 2020 Military Intelligence Program Budget
14. The Post-American Order
15. How two ex-Green Berets were lured into a disastrous failed coup in Venezuela
16. Is Lockheed Building the Air Force's Secret Fighter?
17. Why Social Media Is So Good at Polarizing Us
18. Iran trying to meddle in U.S. election, Russia has obtained American voter info, national security officials say
19. Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition
20. Is China Preparing for War in the Taiwan Strait?
21. US approves $1.8bn weapons sale to Taiwan
22. 'Maximum Pressure Brought Down the Soviet Union' and Other Lies We Tell Ourselves
23. Strategic Upheaval, Overhyped, or Something in Between? Forecasting the Relative Impacts of Cyber and Space Technologies
24. Resistance and Resilience in Asia - Political Warfare of Revisionist and Rogue Powers
1. Does Palantir See Too Much?
The New York Times · by Michael Steinberger - Oct. 21, 2020
Yes????
2. Top US general in Afghanistan says he's holding back to give Taliban peace deal a chance
militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · October 21, 2020
3. The Mystery of the Immaculate Concussion
GQ · by Julia Ioffe
More on the targeting of our intelligence officers.
4. Pentagon's New Plan to Fight China and Russia in the Gray Zone
Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · October 21, 2020
This is the key point. "Yet the rivalries with Russia and China involve far more than the possibility of large-scale war. They also involve struggling in the shadows - shifting the status quo without resorting to open violence, or seeking to undermine rivals through subtle, ambiguous strategies." This is why we need an American Way of Political Warfare. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE300/PE304/RAND_PE304.pdf
5. James Stavridis on global order amid potential election chaos
The Economist · by James Stavridis
An important message. Do not attempt to explicit US domestic challenges. Conclusion: "The message to any would-be geopolitical destabiliser is that America will respond vigorously. Do not mistake domestic squabbling for an unwillingness to stand firm internationally, from anywhere to anywhere. As the great pageantry of clash and cacophony that typifies American democracy takes place again this year, no one should underestimate the country's preparedness and resolve. As American citizens focus on the election, American institutions remain focused on maintaining global order."
6. Defense Policy Board and China
washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz
Bill Gertz assesses the members of the Defense Policy Board.
7. China's influence operations offer glimpse into information warfare's future
NBC News · by Olivia Solon and Ken Dilanian · October 21, 2020
We need to pay attention. This is the competition: Closed societies versus open societies. Authoritarian regimes versus democratic nations. Those who want to control their people and others, execute rule by law, deny human rights, and ensure the economy and industry supports the politics of the leaders to ensure the party remains in power versus those who value freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights.
8. New American military base in Pacific would show how US-China cold war is heating up fast
From Russia's RT news service.
9. Canada's Parliament Labels China's Abuses in Xinjiang 'Genocide,' Urges Government Action
10. Cheap drones versus expensive tanks: a battlefield game-changer?
aspistrategist.org.au · by Malcolm Davis · October 21, 2020
Everyone must be studying the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in great detail and with great concern.
11. The Next Ninety days and China's Coming Invasion of Taiwan: 3 November 2020 as possible D-Day
Small Wars Journal – by William M. Darley
12. Despite Military Improvements, Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Still 'Highly Risky' Says Former Pentagon Official
news.usni.org · by John Grady · October 20, 2020
Key points from Randall Shriver:
While "the PLA [People's Liberation Army] is getting better" at amphibious warfare, moving "tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands" of troops "across 80 nautical miles of water" and then successfully fighting an active resistance in mountainous terrain is not likely, Schriver said.
China "prefers to win without fighting," he added. That does not mean Xi is backing down on eventual reunification, a goal he wants to reach by the centennial of the founding of the Chinese communist party in 2021.
13. Department of Defense Releases 2020 Military Intelligence Program Budget
defense.gov – 21 October 2020
Spoiler alert: $23.1 billion. But of course, no further details, just the top line.
14. The Post-American Order
Foreign Affairs · by Kori Schake · October 21, 2020
15. How two ex-Green Berets were lured into a disastrous failed coup in Venezuela
Business Insider · by Graham Flanagan
16. Is Lockheed Building the Air Force's Secret Fighter?
defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber
It is a good thing we still have the Skunk Works.
17. Why Social Media Is So Good at Polarizing Us
WSJ · by Christopher Mims – 19 October 2020
It sure is. I see this every day on the social media pages of the interwebs. But here is the author's solution (can we break our addiction?): "Based on my own reporting, I'd call that a ringing endorsement for avoiding social media as much as possible - especially just before and after an election."
18. Iran trying to meddle in U.S. election, Russia has obtained American voter info, national security officials say
CNBC · by Dan Mangan, Kevin Breuninger · October 21, 2020
KEY POINTS
Iran and Russia have both obtained information about American voters' registrations and are trying to influence the public about the upcoming U.S. presidential election, national security officials said.
Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said that Iran has been sending "spoofed emails designed to intimidate voters, incite unrest and damage President" Donald Trump.
19. Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition
The 400 page tome can be downloaded at this link: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/Books/SA2020/Strategic-Assessment-2020.pdf?ver=-NTckVdG56-CfFYJ73PTgg%3d%3d
20. Is China Preparing for War in the Taiwan Strait?
The National Interest · by J. Michael Cole · October 21, 2020
But it is uncertainty that should be worrying us.
21. US approves $1.8bn weapons sale to Taiwan
22. 'Maximum Pressure Brought Down the Soviet Union' and Other Lies We Tell Ourselves
warontherocks.com · by Philip H. Gordon · October 22, 2020
Conclusion: "The Cold War analogy with the Soviet Union does, of course, demonstrate how a dangerous adversary can be contained, and it provides hope that in the long run, even hostile regimes can evolve in a relatively positive direction. But the Soviet Union's positive evolution, whose timing could not be controlled nor predicted, took place not as a result of a U.S. policy of total confrontation, let alone military intervention, but at the end of a long, patient, process of deterrence, diplomacy, arms control, soft power, and alliances. As they formulate policy today, current leaders would do well to keep this actual history in mind - rather than the dangerous caricature embraced by Trump and his supporters."
23. Strategic Upheaval, Overhyped, or Something in Between? Forecasting the Relative Impacts of Cyber and Space Technologies
mwi.usma.edu · by Marina Favaro · October 21, 2020
24. Resistance and Resilience in Asia - Political Warfare of Revisionist and Rogue Powers
My thoughts.
"Reasoning will never make a man correct an ill opinion which by reasoning he never acquired."
- Jonathan Swift
"The sign of an intelligent people is their ability to control emotions by the application of reason."
- Marya Mannes
"Technology is so much fun but we can drown in our technology. The fog of information can drive out knowledge."
- Daniel J. Boorstin
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