10/11/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Video of north Korea's parade

2. North Korea unlikely to fire new 'monster' ICBM before US election

3.  Kim Jong Un Just Showed The World The War Machine He Built While Feinting Diplomacy

4.  U.S. calls for negotiations with North Korea to achieve complete denuclearization

5. Tearful Kim Jong Un says North Korea will mobilize nuclear force if threatened

6. North Korea unveils 'monster' new intercontinental ballistic missile at parade

7. Kim Jong Un Marks 75 Years of North Korean Communism With Giant New Missile

8. China's Xi promises support for China-N.Korea relations in letter to Kim: KCNA

9. Analysis: North Korea's Kim speaks softly, shows off new military might

10. SKorea worries about missile shown in NKorea military parade

11. Documentary claims to expose North Korea trying to dodge sanctions

12. Commentary: Fake news coming out of North Korea can be fact checked but isn't

13. Biden will meet Kim Jong-un if necessary to denuclearize N. Korea: adviser

14. U.S. 'disappointed' to see N. Korea prioritize weapons: U.S. official

15. U.S. analyzing N. Korea's military parade in consultation with allies: defense dept.

16. Biden's election to mean stronger alliance with S. Korea: experts

17. North Korea Unveils Two New Strategic Missiles in October 10 Parade

18. Donald Trump 'is furious' after Kim Jong Un unveils massive ICBM

 

1. Video of north Korea's parade

For anyone who is interested in watching the north Korean parade in celebration of the 75th anniversary of the Korean Workers Party here is a link to the video. It is narrated un English by journalists from NK News. Note the photo below is of the new liquid fuel road mobile ICBM that can target the US - we just do not know if the north has miniaturized a nuclear warhead yet but it has missiles that can strike CONUS. I call it the Hwasong 15 on steroids but it will be interesting to see what the intelligence community names it. Of course first they need to assess if it is even real and not a mock-up. After all north Korea is masterful at denial and deception.

 

2. North Korea unlikely to fire new 'monster' ICBM before US election

asia.nikkei.com

Probably accurate.  This parade laid the groundwork for future blackmail diplomacy and I think he will wait until after the election if he does a test shot at all.

 

3. Kim Jong Un Just Showed The World The War Machine He Built While Feinting Diplomacy

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · October 10, 2020

Some good photos of the new ICBM, the SLBM, as well as conventional systems and individual soldier equipment.  And I concur that it was a very well-produced showcase.

I think the title is accurate. while the regime was feigning diplomacy it improved its military capabilities across the board.  The regime is conducting political warfare with juche characteristics.

That said, I doubt these conventional weapons systems and advanced equipment are fielded throughout the nKPA. In fact we may be seeing all of its advanced capabilities in this show.  I am sure the ground intelligence analysts are searching for all the supposedly new anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems as well as the armored vehicles.  Satellite imagery for the coming days will be important to observe where all these systems go.  Do they go to operational unit locations or do they go to warehouses for the next parade.

The north conducted its Byungjin policy for some 5 years (ending it in 2018 I believe). Roughly translated the Byungjin Policy was the simultaneous development of nuclear weapons and the economy.  I wonder what the regime calls its policy of simultaneous development of nuclear weapons while conducting fake diplomacy?

 

4. U.S. calls for negotiations with North Korea to achieve complete denuclearization

uk.reuters.com · by Andrea Shalal

Of course the regime is masterful at getting something for nothing.  What if this Hwasong 15 on steroids is just a mock up? (I am sure the intelligence analysts are pouring over the video and photos to determine its authenticity - as an aside with tomorrow being Columbus Day and this a three day weekend, I am reminded of this tweet I saw  yesterday - "North Korea, ruining three-day weekends for intel analysts since 1950.")

But what if the north has built this to support negotiations?  Without ever conducting a test shot what if the north is willing to give this up in return for sanctions relief?  The regime will trade a system that it has never fielded (and perhaps never intended to field) for the concessions it wants.  This would be the north's political warfare at its finest.

 

5.  Tearful Kim Jong Un says North Korea will mobilize nuclear force if threatened

New York Post · by Dana Kennedy · October 10, 2020

More useful photos and my comments in the article.

 

6. North Korea unveils 'monster' new intercontinental ballistic missile at parade

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith · October 10, 2020

This says it all: “This missile is a monster,” said Melissa Hanham, deputy director of the Open Nuclear Network.  But is it real or is it Memorex (for those old enough to remember those commercials)?

 

7.  Kim Jong Un Marks 75 Years of North Korean Communism With Giant New Missile

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin and Andrew Jeong

Don't be duped by Kim's tears.  Crying on command is a north Korea trait.  Of course for all other Korean people in the north crying on command for the dear, great, supreme leader Marshall Kim Jong-un and his father and grandfather is a survival mechanism: failure to cry on command and on camera may result in being sent to the gulag, or worse.

 

8. China's Xi promises support for China-N.Korea relations in letter to Kim: KCNA

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · October 10, 2020

"Copy furnished" to all those pundits who think China will solve the nuclear problem in north Korea.

 

9. Analysis: North Korea's Kim speaks softly, shows off new military might

Reuters · by Josh Smith · October 11, 2020

Big missiles speak louder than words. And Kim showed us more than just big missiles.

 

10.  SKorea worries about missile shown in NKorea military parade

AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim · October 11, 2020

As it should.  Not because the monster missile is a threat to the ROK.  It is a threat to the alliance. It is a threat to the Moon Administration's vision of peace at any cost.  It is an indication of the true nature of the Kim family regime and that nature does not comport with the fundamental assumptions the Moon administration has made about it and upon which it has based its policy and strategy since Moon took office.

 

11. Documentary claims to expose North Korea trying to dodge sanctions

BBC · by News

Something a little different than our missile and parade focus.

Unfortunately, this streams only in the UK.  I will try to figure out how to get access. (I set my VPN to the UK but for some reason the BBC still thinks I am not in the UK!!)

Excerpt:

The film is funny, grotesque and at times barely credible. "I am a film maker who craves sensation," Brügger admits in the film.

But Hugh Griffiths, who was co-ordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea between 2014 and 2019, called the revelations in the film ‘highly credible’.”

"This film is the most severe embarrassment to Chairman Kim Jong-un that we have ever seen," said Griffiths. "Just because it appears amateurish does not mean the intent to sell and gain foreign currency revenue is not there. Elements of the film really do correspond with what we already know."

 

12. Commentary: Fake news coming out of North Korea can be fact checked but isn't

channelnewsasia.com · by Martin Weiser

I don't know.  I think it is kind of hard to fact check the teleport theory.

 

13. Biden will meet Kim Jong-un if necessary to denuclearize N. Korea: adviser

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 11, 2020

Hmmm..... Interesting timing on this report.  I wonder if the advisor is speaking out of school.  But whatever the future holds for nuclear negotiations we can credit President Trump's unconventional, experimental top-down, pen-pal diplomacy with breaking the taboo of meeting with a north Korean leader. It will provide future President's with flexibility.  (notice what I did there - my comments imply that Kim Jong-un and north korea will continue to exist as we change administration in the future)

 

14. U.S. 'disappointed' to see N. Korea prioritize weapons: U.S. official

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 11, 2020

Disappointed, yes,  but certainly not surprised. I think every Korea watcher expected and predicted seeing some kind of new "strategic weapon."

 

15. U.S. analyzing N. Korea's military parade in consultation with allies: defense dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 10, 2020

As we should and must.  And I can't help but repeat this tweet as I think about all the intelligence analysts hard at work in Korea, Hawaii, and DC.  Tweet: "North Korea, ruining three-day weekends for intel analysts since 1950."

 

16.  Biden's election to mean stronger alliance with S. Korea: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 11, 2020

The Korean press is expressing its preference (Yonhap is a semi-official news outlet in Korea)

 

17. North Korea Unveils Two New Strategic Missiles in October 10 Parade

38 North · by Vann H. Vam Diepen and Michael Elleman · October 10, 2020

 

18.  Donald Trump 'is furious' after Kim Jong Un unveils massive ICBM

Daily Mail · by Keith Griffith · October 11, 2020

Reportedly. By whom? (an unnamed source told Vox national security reporter Alex Ward.)

 

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