08/03/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Issue of USFK that comes after defense cost negotiations

2. U.S. Arms Control Special Envoy tweets photos of nuclear assets

3. The cycle of retaliation should be broken (Japan - Korea)

4. Commentary: South Korea will outperform many developed economies in this coronavirus downturn

5. UN report: N.Korea continues nuclear development

6. Crisis in 2021? (Korean Peninsula)

7. N.Korea Keeps Earning Illegal Cash for Nuke Development

8. N.Korea Tightens Lockdown

9. Heavy rain pummels central S. Korea; casualties reported in landslides

10. Seven more US troops test positive for coronavirus upon arrival in South Korea

11. New virus cases drop to 23, local infections at 3-month low

12. Donald Trump the deal maker may look to North Korea for US election 'October surprise'

13. Analysis | Why Japan's Feud With South Korea Isn't Going Away

14. Japan Warns Korea over Asset Seizure

15. There Shall Be No God But Kim Jong Un

16. Forced Abortions, Collective Punishment: Here's What Happens to Women Who Try to Escape North Korea

17. Unification ministry denies probe into civic groups targets N.K. defectors

18. Kaesong's civil defense forces in a state of "emergency mobilization"

 

1. Issue of USFK that comes after defense cost negotiations

donga.com · August 3, 2020

Of course the Koreans are paying close attention to what is happening with troop adjustments in Europe. They are parsing every word for clues about what will happen with US forces in Korea.  They are paying attention to Nate Freier's Army War College report on the Army in INDOPACOM.

 

2. U.S. Arms Control Special Envoy tweets photos of nuclear assets

donga.com · August 3, 2020

Kim and Xi: this photo is for you.

 

3. The cycle of retaliation should be broken (Japan - Korea)

donga.com · August 3, 2020

The cycle of retaliation should be broken

 

4. Commentary: South Korea will outperform many developed economies in this coronavirus downturn

channelnewsasia.com · by Troy Stangarone

I was not expecting to read this.  Good analysis from Troy Stangerone.

 

5. UN report: N.Korea continues nuclear development

www3.nhk.or.jp

I am not sure which report the NHK is talking about.  Is this the last UN Panel of Experts report or is there a new one that has not been released?

 

6. Crisis in 2021? (Korean Peninsula)

m.koreatimes.co.kr · John Burton· August 3, 2020

North Korea Organization and Guidance Department: The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial · Robert Collins· 2019

My crystal ball is kind of hazy.  Certainly there could be a crisis.  Your guess is as good as mine.

It is Military First Politics versus policy.  Also, the Byungjin policy ended in 2018. 

Just as an aside, I call your attention to Robert Collins' important analysis here.  This is just an excerpt. There is a lot of detail in Bob's report.

 

7. N.Korea Keeps Earning Illegal Cash for Nuke Development

english.chosun.com· August 3, 2020

I still have not found the most recent UN Panel of Experts report.

 

8. N.Korea Tightens Lockdown

english.chosun.com· August 3, 2020

All the indicators seem to be there.  But still no definitive reports on what is happening and of course other than the defector report there has been no admission of an outbreak by the regime.  north Korea i see neither doing an excellent job of suppressing information or its draconian population and resources control measures are really preventing or mitigating an outbreak. Or a combination of both!

 

9. Heavy rain pummels central S. Korea; casualties reported in landslides

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · August 3, 2020

I wonder how bad it is in the north.  With the hillsides stripped of vegetation the potential for landslides is even greater in the north and they do not need to receive as much rain as is falling in the South.

 

10. Seven more US troops test positive for coronavirus upon arrival in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · Kim Gamel· August 3, 2020

 

11. New virus cases drop to 23, local infections at 3-month low

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 3, 2020

South Korea is managing.

 

12. Donald Trump the deal maker may look to North Korea for US election 'October surprise'

SCMP · Eduardo Baptista· August 3, 2020

I doubt President Trump is going to use north Korea for an October Surprise.  To get a deal with north Korea there would have to be immediate sanctions relief and that would set the clock back two decades as Kim's blackmail diplomacy would be completely justified as he would have achieved a key objective in his long con.

But I do hope journalists will keep calling attention to an October Surprise because if/when something happens it will not be a surprise so perhaps that in itself will be a deterrent - if you cannot achieve objectives because they are dependent on surprise then why take the action at all?

 

13. Analysis | Why Japan's Feud With South Korea Isn't Going Away

The Washington Post · by Isabel Reynolds

This is definitely not good for our linchpin and cornerstone alliances in Northeast Asia.

 

14. Japan Warns Korea over Asset Seizure

Things may go from bad to worse.

english.chosun.com  · August 3, 2020

 

15. There Shall Be No God But Kim Jong Un

The National Interest · by James W. Carr · August 2, 2020

The authors are commissioners on the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom. I am happy to see these recommendations such as making human rights an agenda item in negotiations having DRL prioritize north Korean information projects, and to fill the position of the special Envoy for Human Rights in North Korea.

Religious beliefs are very important for the situation in north Korea.  First, they undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime Second, they give the Koran people hope.  Third, religion will be very important during the unification process when the regime is no longer in power and the Juche ideology has been found to be a lie.  Korans in the north will be hungry for faith in some belief and there will be nothing that will provide this better than religion, any religion.

 

16.  Forced Abortions, Collective Punishment: Here's What Happens to Women Who Try to Escape North Korea

Vice · by Junhyup Kwon

I hate to keep forwarding these tragic and horrific stories. But we cannot let the evil nature of the Kim family regime go unnoticed and unchecked.  And let us think for at least a moment about the suffering that is taking place every day in north Korea and to those who are trying to escape the hell that is north Korea.

 

17.  Unification ministry denies probe into civic groups targets N.K. defectors

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 3, 2020

The MOU doth protest too much.

 

18.  Kaesong's civil defense forces in a state of "emergency mobilization"

dailynk.com · Jong So Yong ·August 3, 2020

This is what mobilization is all about in north Korea -the civilian population forced to provide rations for the "militia." I guess these militiamen are not minutemen.

 

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- Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

 

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-  J .F.C. Fuller

 

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