07/08/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korean government prioritizes N. Korea over U.S.

2. Biegun visits S. Korea without his right arm

3. A midsummer night's dream (Korea and the Moon Administration)

4. Biegun thanks South Korea for supporting trip to Seoul amid COVID-19

5. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary

6. Pyongyang tells Seoul to give up on mediating role

7. Are Bolton's words true? (Korea in Bolton's book)

8. US troops spark anger in South Korea

9. North Korea talks tough as U.S. negotiator lands in Seoul

10. Biegun meets senior Seoul officials over stalled nuke diplomacy

11. Biegun says U.S. 'strongly' supports inter-Korean cooperation

12. U.S. Remains Ready to Resume Nuclear Talks With North Korea, Envoy Says

13. Korean Tensions: An Unexpected Pause in an Uncertain Time

14. Reports: China, North Korea trade declining as food, fuel prices rise

15. Seven US troops test positive for coronavirus after arriving in South Korea

16. North Korea's Contradictions Will Be Its Demise

17. Kim Pyong-il: Former Ambassador or Future Supreme Leader of North Korea?

18. Men Un Black: Kim Jong Un is flanked by flunkeys

19. North Korean Elites' Self-Interest Will Keep Kim Family in Power

 

1.  S. Korean government prioritizes N. Korea over U.S.

donga.com July 8, 2020

The title says it all.  Unfortunately if South Korea goes down this path neither the ROK nor the US will be successful versus north Korea.  And of course a major priority of the regime is to split the ROK/US Alliance.

For the ROK and the US to be successful their actions must be built on a strong alliance.

 

2. Biegun visits S. Korea without his right arm

donga.com · July 8, 2020

I think the press and the pundits may be reading too much into this.  But of course everyone is reading the tea leaves looking for scrap of information that will be. a sign of what the US intends to do.  I would say this is probably much ado about nothing.  There is probably some innocuous explanation and I do not think it means anything negative in terms of the ROK/US alliance or policy and strategy versus north Korea.

 

3. A midsummer night's dream (Korea and the Moon Administration)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Nam Jeong-ho

Mr. Nam says Moon is betting everything on another Trump-Kim summit and he rightly calls it wishful thinking while ignoring reality.  The reality is the nature of the Kim family regime and the Moon administration's assumption about the regime have been wrong.  Never say never, but I think I have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery than another summit.

4. Biegun thanks South Korea for supporting trip to Seoul amid COVID-19

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 8, 2020

Mr. Biegun and his team are grateful they did not have to quarantine for 14 days.  Hopefully traveling by US military air mitigated the risk for our team and for Korea.

 

5. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 8, 2020

Interestingly on the television footage we saw we did not observe any masks among the people  (just like the photo below). Kim Jong-un must not be as worried about the coronavirus or he just did not want to appear weak.  It is amazing to think that 26 years ago we were potentially on the brink of striking the north's nuclear program, Carter had just visited Pyongyang, we were in the midst of negotiating the Agreed Framework (approved in October) and Kim Il-sung passed away on July 8th.

It will be interesting if we read about a South Korean government message to the north on the anniversary of his death.

 

6. Pyongyang tells Seoul to give up on mediating role

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shim Kyu-Seok

I am at a loss as to why the Moon administration is not understanding the regime's message.

And who thinks Mr Biegun is bringing a game-changing proposal to Seoul this week?  The only game-changing proposal can come from the north- if Kim agree to allow substantive working level negotiations to work toward denuclearization of the north.

 

7. Are Bolton's words true? (Korea in Bolton's book)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Michael Green

For all Korea watchers I hope you have read Chapter 11 of Bolton's book.  It is a fascinating read.  Bolton certainly did not have anything good to say about Mr. Biegun.

But Mike Green provides the grain of salt necessary for reading Bolton's book.

8. US Troops Spark Anger in South Korea

Daily Mail · by Ryan Fahey · July 7, 2020

As one of my many great Command Sergeants Major used to say: "One awe sh*t wipes out a thousand attaboys."  We did not need this.  And I think we wiped out a few thousand attaboys.

 

9. North Korea talks tough as U.S. negotiator lands in Seoul

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Yes as Duyeon Kim mentions, the north is desperate to fix its economic problems. She is exactly right here: "The best way for the regime to divert attention from Kim's performance at home is to deflect his constituents' gaze outward." But we must remember those economic problems are caused by Kim Jong-un's policy decisions.  He chooses to put nuclear weapons and ICBMs ahead of the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.  He must be held accountable and one of the ways to do that is to inform the Korean people living in the north.

 

10. Biegun meets senior Seoul officials over stalled nuke diplomacy

koreaherald.com · July 8, 2020

We are prepared to engage.  The north is not.  Or I should say it will only engage if it receives the concessions it demands (sanctions relief).  If we ever give into the north's demands we will confirm to Kim Jong-un that his blackmail diplomacy works and we will simply see more demands.

 

11. Biegun says U.S. 'strongly' supports inter-Korean cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 8, 2020

Yes we do as long as engagement does not violate the sanctions regime and US law.

 

12. U.S. Remains Ready to Resume Nuclear Talks With North Korea, Envoy Says

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin · July 8, 2020

Pyongyang has no interest in talks unless it is guaranteed to have immediate sanctions relief.

Just as an aside can you imagine if there was a meeting and one side infected the other with the coronavirus?  There would surely be some fallout as a result (no pun intended).

 

13. Korean Tensions: An Unexpected Pause in an Uncertain Time

COMMENTARY  · by Duyeon Kim · July 7, 2020

The frog is going to boil from now and until November.  And we need to pay attention to the internal domestic pressures on Kim Jong-un.

And I am always leery when the propaganda against the South ceases.  But we have seen the reports that internal lectures continue the hostile attitude toward the South.

 

14. Reports: China, North Korea trade declining as food, fuel prices rise

upi.com · Elisabeth Shim · July 7, 2020

In north Korea things will always get worse and never seem to get better.

 

15. Seven US troops test positive for coronavirus after arriving in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · by Kim Gamel · July 8, 2020

I do worry about the amount of troops and staff augmentation and contractors who will deploy for the exercises.  Will they be deploying 14 days early for quarantine?  I would hate to think of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command suffering a massive outbreak due to the exercise.  Yet we have to train or readiness will decline.  This is a difficult commander's problem.

 

16. North Korea's Contradictions Will Be Its Demise

The National Interest · by Jeenho Hahm · July 7, 2020

Will the "anachronism" soon expire?  We cannot make such predictions.  But we must observe for indicators and be prepared for all contingencies.

 

17.  Kim Pyong-il: Former Ambassador or Future Supreme Leader of North Korea?

The National Interest · by Harry J. Kazianis, John Grover, and Adriana Nazarko · July 7, 2020

Interesting background on Kim Pyong-il.  He does not get much press (though of course as noted there was speculation about him possibly being a successor but I think that has been debunked or as the article notes he would be an unlikely successor).

 

18. Men Un Black: Kim Jong Un is flanked by flunkeys

Daily Mail · by Alice Cachia For Mailonline · July 8, 2020

Flunkeys is usually a term used by the north to describe the South.  And again, note there were no masks.

 

19. North Korean Elites' Self-Interest Will Keep Kim Family in Power

The National Interest · by Welton Chang · July 7, 2020

This is why we have not yet seen internal resistance among the elite.  Despite the hardships in north Korea the elite are still better off than they would be without Kim Jong-un in power.  The question is if or when their views will shift?  They have contributed to the incredible resilience of the regime.

 

---------

 

"The means of defence against foreign danger have been always the instruments of tyranny at home. Among the Romans it was a standing maxim to excite a war, whenever a revolt was apprehended. Throughout all Europe, the armies kept up under the pretext of defending, have enslaved the people."

- James Madison, Notes of Debates in the Federal Convention of 1787 Reported by James Madison

"You are young, my son, and, as the years go by, time will change and even reverse many of your present opinions.  Refrain therefore awhile from setting yourself up as a judge of the highest matters."  

- Plato

 

"In the future, we should anticipate seeing more hybrid wars where conventional warfare, irregular warfare, asymmetric warfare, and information warfare all blend together, creating a very complex and challenging situation to the combatants; therefore it will require military forces to possess hybrid capabilities, which might help deal with hybrid threats." 

- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono