07/06/2020 News & Commentary – National Security       

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt

2. Thousands of US troops will shift to Asia-Pacific to guard against China

3. The hidden aftershocks of John Bolton's memoir as foreign government officials remain fixated

4. Fake accounts are constantly manipulating what you see on social media. Here's how

5. Duterte's worrisome anti-terrorism act

6.  US military presence in Poland - Analysis

7. Operation Bashi Channel: the next flashpoint in the China-US military rivalry

8. 239 Experts with one big claim: the Coronavirus is airborne

9. The fullest look yet at the racial inequity of Coronavirus

10. TikTok may be 'data collection service disguised as social media', Liberal senator says

11. Hong Kong, changed overnight, navigates its new reality

12. China's superpower dreams are running out of money

13. Bucking China pressure, Taiwan, Somaliland establish ties

14. A Wicked Cultural Problem: Options for combating new Tribalism in 2035

15. White House to interview defense officials in perceived loyalty test

16. Air Force says 26 states have submitted bids to host U.S. Space Command

17. Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic flaw in contemporary U.S. Army thinking

18. White House tentatively agrees to leave some troops in Afghanistan past U.S. election

19. Troops, long-term residents exempt from EU coronavirus travel ban on American

20. War Books: How to win a land war in Asia

 

1. Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt

The Economist · July 4, 2020

Yes this is the new reality, the new normal. We need to adopt and practice fundamental public health procedures as a matter of routine to protect each other.

I found this comment on my Facebook page from a friend from overseas.

1. My kids are asking how come our neighbors are having the 4th of July party altogether with the other neighbors while we try to keep social distance with them as they just came back from a vacation to Florida.

2.  Foreign diplomatic corps colleagues in major American cities like Washington DC and New York are trying to relocate themselves to different countries amid Covid19. They say other places would be safer for sometime than DC/NY, and it's surprising to see what cities and countries are on the list as alternatives.

Quo Vadis America?

My response to him:

I am saddened to read your comments, but I understand your feelings and fears. It is not what you have written that makes me sad. It is the reason why you had to write it that is so troubling. We cannot get our own house in order.

2. Thousands of US troops will shift to Asia-Pacific to guard against China

asia.nikkei.com

Where will they go? What country is going to pay the costs to host them? (Said with tongue in cheek sarcasm). I think what will really happen is they will return to CONUS and the. Simply be apportioned to support war plans and training in the Pacific. I do not think we have the infrastructure in Asia-Pacific to base more forces. Perhaps temporary rotations such as in Australia (such as the Marines) but I doubt they can be permanently based anywhere. (Maybe Alaska but that would be about it, Where in Guam or Japan? Hawaii perhaps but I will bet there is not a lot of excess space there)

Some might consider "spreading them out" through the theater. Spreading them out? What kind of units are they? What kind of capabilities will they have? What does 9500 troops spread out of Asia do for us? This is simply crazy. Everyone just looks at numbers. What kind of effects will this achieve? Just to say we have more troops in Asia? We know there is insufficient infrastructure for Army units throughout Asia. And then why will we bring home troops from Korea (or maybe Japan as well if they are "delinquent" on their payments? I know they are not and Korea certainly pays for its defense as a percentage of its GDP more than Germany and most all NATO allies, if not all).

The bottom line is what specific units with what specific capabilities will be withdrawn from Germany and shifted to Asia? My guess is the majority of the forces will be CONUS based and perhaps some in Hawaii and Guam and will simply be apportioned to support war plans in the Pacific and theater engagement activities.

But we should always remember that brilliant movie on strategy, the Princess Bride and heed this advice:

Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line.

3. The hidden aftershocks of John Bolton's memoir as foreign government officials remain fixated

Axios · by Jonathan Swan

Yes, Bolton's book has faded in the US press. But it is continuing to have aftershocks among our allies.

4. Fake accounts are constantly manipulating what you see on social media. Here's how

ScienceAlert · by Jeanna Matthews, The Conversation

What is the best way to defend against fake accounts? The author provides four recommendations with the last summarized as do not become addicted to social media.

5. Duterte's worrisome anti-terrorism act

asiasentinel.com · by Asia Sentinel

Yes we should be concerned with democracy in the Philippines.

6.  US military presence in Poland – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Andrew Feickert, Kathleen J. Mclnnis, and Derek E. Mix · July 5, 2020

You can always count on the Congressional Research Service to provide some good analysis.

7. Operation Bashi Channel: the next flashpoint in the China-US military rivalry

https://www.scmp.com/ · by Lawrence Chung · July 5, 2020

8. 239 Experts with one big claim: the Coronavirus is airborne

The New York Times · by Apoorva Mandavilli · July 4, 2020

Troubling if accurate.

Of course the internet memes will seize on this and all the internet experts will debunk the scientists and say this is just a conspiracy to end the world as we know it. Watch how the internet trolls react to this.

9. The fullest look yet at the racial inequity of Coronavirus

10. TikTok may be 'data collection service disguised as social media', Liberal senator says

11. Hong Kong, changed overnight, navigates its new reality

12. China's superpower dreams are running out of money

Foreign Policy · by Salvatore Babones · July 6, 2020

I hope this is the case and not wishful thinking. But I would not hold my breath or include this as a hopeful part of a strategy to deal with China.

13. Bucking China pressure, Taiwan, Somaliland establish ties

The Washington Post · by Associated Press

A rare diplomatic victory? I think this goes in the SERE school definition of "small victories." Buttaiwan needs every one of such small victories.

14. A Wicked Cultural Problem: Options for combating new Tribalism in 2035

divergentoptions.org · by Divergent Options · July 6, 2020

An interesting think piece. I thought this was going to address the problem of tribalism in American politics but it has a different thesis.

15. White House to interview defense officials in perceived loyalty test

Foreign Policy · by Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer · July 3, 2020

Sigh...next we will be implementing Songbun. I hope this is inaccurate reporting.

Can you imagine being a senior official and  having to have an "office call" with these two? John Troup Hemenway, an undergraduate student at the University of Virginia, and Jordan Hayley, who graduated from Liberty University in June. And they are going to assess your loyalty to the President?

16. Air Force says 26 states have submitted bids to host U.S. Space Command

spacenews.com · by Sandra Erwin · July 5, 2020

Almost like bidding to host the Olympics.

But the concluding paragraph sums up the challenge. Congress will be intensely scrutinizing this to prevent a "moondoggle."

17. Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic flaw in contemporary U.S. Army thinking

thestrategybridge.org · July 6, 2020

This sums up the author's thesis: "While acolytes of multi-domain operations point to the Wehrmacht's early wins as evidence that short and lively campaigns work, they often fail to acknowledge that, in both world wars, this thinking ultimately led to strategic defeat." I am sure the strategists and concept developers at the Pentagon and TRADOC will take exception to this accusation.

18. White House tentatively agrees to leave some troops in Afghanistan past U.S. election

Los Angeles Times · by David S. Cloud · July 3, 2020

19. Troops, long-term residents exempt from EU coronavirus travel ban on American

Stars and Stripes · by John Vandiver · July 2, 2020

Some good news I suppose.

20. War Books: How to win a land war in Asia

mwi.usma.edu · by T.S. Allen · July 6, 2020

I still think it is good advice to avoid a land war in Asia. I think that must be why we changed the name from PACOM to INDOPACOM instead of the Asia-Pacific Command. INDO and PACOM refer to the Pacific and Indian Oceans where we desire to operate rather than on the Asia land mass (I am being sarcastic here).

 

-----------

"Human dignity and freedom are our constant necessities.  So, let us keep them with us, or let us die with dignity." 

-  Marcus Tullius Cicero

 

"This is the diviine law of life: that only virtue stands firm.  All the rest is nothing." 

- Pythagoras

 

"Good people will do what they find honorable to do, even if it requires hard work; they'll do it even if causes them injury; they'll do it even if it will bring danger.  Again, they won't do what they find base., even if it brings great wealth, pleasure, or power.  Nothing will deter them from what is honorable, and nothing will lure them into what is base."

- Seneca, Moral Letters