06/03/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Pentagon accepts S. Korea's proposal to fund labor costs for Korean USFK workers on furlough

2. S. Korea will push ahead with cross-border projects to prepare for post-coronavirus era

3. The conspiracy against ex-president Park Geun-hye

4. Ex-USFK commander worries N. Korea will soon launch ballistic missile submarine

5. Use of medical helicopters to target protesters a 'foolish' violation of norms, experts say

6. FDD | Trump's New China Strategy Must Focus on International Organizations

7. Coronavirus substantially hampers humanitarian efforts in N. Korea: Red Cross official

8. The Pandemic And Korean Foreign Policy In The Event Of The Dissolution Of The U.S.-ROK Alliance

9.  Embattled China Now Picks Up A Fight With South Korea Over Missile Defence System, Here's Why It Is Scared

10. US, South Korea Agree to Fund Furloughed Workers on US Bases

11. Well-connected dollar trader in Chongjin arrested (north Korea)

12. Army chief visits war remains excavation site in DMZ 

13. 5.18 and the Tyranny of Power (South Korea)

14. Memories of American veterans of the Korean War

 

1. Pentagon accepts S. Korea's proposal to fund labor costs for Korean USFK workers on furlough

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 3, 2020

As I said this is just a band aid. A stop gap solution. It will not stop the bleeding in the alliance. We need a 5 year agreement that is truly fair and equitable.

2. S. Korea will push ahead with cross-border projects to prepare for post-coronavirus era

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 2, 2020

Perhaps now is a good time to review President Moon's "peace strategy." The Moon administration remains remarkably consistent with the strategy. The question is whether this is a realistic policy given the nature of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.

Moon Jae-in's Policy on the Korean Peninsula

https://www.unikorea.go.kr/eng_unikorea/policylssues/koreanpeninsula/principles/

3. The conspiracy against ex-president Park Geun-hye

asiatimes.com · by Jason Morgan · June 2, 2020

This is a fascinating account. The authors make the point the this has had a devastating impact on trilateral diplomacy. But they conclude with a bombshell accusation.

4. Ex-USFK commander worries N. Korea will soon launch ballistic missile submarine

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 3, 2020

This article is derived from webinar hosted by the Korea Defense Veterans Association held on June 2, 2020. It featured General Walter "Skip" Sharp and Gen Jung, Seung Jo wo served together as the CINC and DCINC of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. The one hour video can be viewed at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaWsynXSo6Q&feature=youtu.be

The webinar is very useful as the discuss crisis action procedures for the ROK/US CFC and they provide very insightful background on a number of issues from how the command works, the OPCON transition process, the relationship to the UN Command. Any member of the press or public with an interest in the alliance would benefit from watching this.

5. Use of medical helicopters to target protesters a 'foolish' violation of norms, experts say

The Washington Post · by Alex Horton · June 2, 2020

I cannot imagine anyone sanctioning the use of MEDEVAC bird for a demonstration or show of force. (if that is what it is was doing). I wonder if there was a MEDEVAC operation taking place some in the vicinity or if it was simply on station to be ready for one.

There is video at the link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/06/02/helicopter-protest-dc/

6. FDD | Trump's New China Strategy Must Focus on International Organizations

fdd.org · by Richard Goldberg Senior Advisor · June 2, 2020

From my colleague at FDD, Rich Goldberg.  As I have written we must compete on the political warfare battlefield and international institutions are key terrain on that battlefield.

7. Coronavirus substantially hampers humanitarian efforts in N. Korea: Red Cross official

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 3, 2020

Still no confirmation of an outbreak of the coronavirus. Giving north Korea the benefit of the doubt, despite the IRC saying it must remain neutral and therefore cannot comment on the possibility of an outbreak, if they had knowledge of an outbreak, I suspect that information would leak out. So perhaps the regime has done a good job preventing an outbreak through the application of its draconian population and resources control measures.

8. The Pandemic And Korean Foreign Policy In The Event Of The Dissolution Of The U.S.-ROK Alliance

Forbes · by Scott Snyder · June 3, 2020

A warning from Scott Snyder. And a recommendation for South Korea is the alliance dissolves. And, like Scott, I certainly hope it does not. The effects of a dissolved alliance will be catastrophic.

Scott offers an analysis of some of the major friction points of the alliance and then provides some objective recommendations for the ROK should the alliance end.

I would just remind everyone that according to the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty to withdraw from the treaty (and thus the alliance) requires a one year notice. But I wonder if there is mutual agreement would they immediately terminate it. "This Treaty shall remain in force indefinitely. Either Party may terminate it one year after notice has been given to the other Party." https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kor001.asp

But we should think about this: How long would it take to withdraw all US military forces, equipment, dependents? How much would it cost? And where would we station it?

As a former US senior leader once said at a conference there is one thing we do well. If someone asks the US to withdraw its military the US will do it and do it as fast as possible. South Korea should examine the Philippines situation (though in that example we did not end the RP-US alliance)

9.  Embattled China Now Picks Up A Fight With South Korea Over Missile Defence System, Here's Why It Is Scared

swarajyamag.com · by Swarajya Staff · June 3, 2020

Hmmm... China is scared? That is an interesting perspective. I have some different views on China's renewed attack on the ROK over THAAD.

I think China is exploiting the current US-PRC friction and is using the THAAD issue as an attempt to create problems for the ROK/US alliance and for the US. This is political warfare being conducted by the PRC. What I think China told Moon in 2017 was no additional THAAD deployment (which I interpret to mean additional launchers and batteries. Note this was not a deployment of any additional systems, only a rotation and replacement of missiles that must be done periodically - the old ones must be serviced so they can be rotated again in the future).  

The system is designed to track missiles that are inbound to the ROK. Yes, its radar range does extend into China; however, THAAD is only effective in defending against missiles that will attack the ROK. If China is concerned about this, does China intend to attack the ROK with missiles? THAAD does not attack surface targets and cannot fire into China. Also, China has no standing to deny the ROK and the US the right of self-defense. These are self-defense weapons.  

It is very likely China will conduct economic warfare against the ROK as part of its overall political warfare strategy. The US failed to support the ROK during the original deployment of THAAD when China began its economic warfare campaign. It will try to coerce the ROK to move away from the US and into China's sphere of influence and THAAD will provide them the opportunity to try to succeed at that. China is exploiting multiple conditions (coronavirus, US-PRC trade war and emerging 21st century cold war order, and continuing ROK/US alliance friction due to SMA, OPCON transition, and differing strategies toward North Korea as well as domestic political upheaval in both the ROK and US). China senses opportunities to practice its "three warfares" - psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media or public opinion warfare. Exerting economic pressure on the ROK is one element that will have significant psychological effects on the government and the population. China seeks to bend Korean will toward China.

If China initiates another economic warfare campaign against the ROK, the US, as an alliance partner, needs to help defend against it and it will need to provide economic support to the ROK.

Korea remains the proverbial shrimp among whales. You cannot change geography and it is geography that causes the biggest problem for Korea - it is too close to its security challenges (enemies) and too far from its allies. Security and the economy are inextricably linked. South Korea is going to have to decide in which sphere of influence it wishes to reside. But if Korea chooses its economy over security, it will soon be dominated indirectly and possibly directly by the Chinese Communist Party's authoritarian system. It will also become extremely vulnerable to North Korean subversion, coercion, extortion and use of force that seeks to dominate the entire Korean peninsula under the rule of the Kim family regime. The ROK government and Korean people have to think hard about with whom they are going to align. A false prosperity under communist indirect or direct influence or remaining a free liberal democracy that is secure and that can adjust its economy to be resilient and to defend itself from Chinese economic and political warfare. The ROK must understand and respond to Chinese and North Korean strategies if it wishes to remain a free and prosperous nation.

Lastly, every commander of the ROK/US CFC has said the ROK has already made the choice between the US and China in 1953 when it signed the Mutual Defense Treaty. But we cannot take that for granted. And I am afraid the US does take the alliance for granted which is why we forced THAAD on the ROK (for very good military and defense reasons) but we did not protect it from China's economic warfare. The US takes it for granted by trying to extort more money from the ROK for burden sharing. And I do not think China respects the ROK. It sees it as a target of opportunity to expand its influence and undermine the US.

10. US, South Korea Agree to Fund Furloughed Workers on US Bases

voanews.com · by William Gallo

My comments below.

11. Well-connected dollar trader in Chongjin arrested (North Korea)

dailynk.com · June 3, 2020

An indicator the regime is trying to crack down on foreign currency to control its economy. But what is interesting is this trader allegedly refused to pay the normal bride to prevent his arrest. Did she think her husband's membership in "Department 11" would provide protection from the MSS? I am sure she knew better than that. In the end this reads like a beef between the MSS and this woman.

12. Army chief visits war remains excavation site in DMZ 

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 3, 2020

Again, an illustration of the shared values of the ROK and US. Arrowhead ridge was the site of a bloody and long fighting between UN and South Korean forces and Chinese and North Korean forces as part of the Iron triangle. In the area was the Battle of Heartbreak Ridge, the Battle of White Horse and Pork Chop Hill, among others. The Arrowhead Ridge area was always hard to get to because it straddled the Military Demarcation Line in the DMZ. The excavation operations are the result of the September 19th Pyongyang Declaration and the Comprehensive Military Agreement. These excavations were supposed to be joint, but the north has refused to participate and instead constructed a new building(s) on the North side to observe the work of the South Korean military conducting the excavations.

13. 5.18 and the Tyranny of Power (South Korea)

onekoreanetwork.com · May 22, 2020

This is quite a critique of the 5.18 movement in Korea with some unique criticism of President Kim Young Sam.

14. Memories of American veterans of the Korean War

donga.com · June 2, 2020

This is really an OpEd about trust and it makes critical comments about Korean society. According to the Donga Ilbo editorial board, Korea is moving backward.

 

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"Before a war military science seems a real science, like astronomy; but after a war it seems more like astrology."

- Rebecca West

 

"I don't know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."

- Albert Einstein (1879-1955) 

 

"War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men."

- Georges Clemenceau