5/27/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

1. Trump Wants Troops in Afghanistan Home by Election Day. The Pentagon Is Drawing Up Plans.

2. How the Taliban Outlasted a Superpower: Tenacity and Carnage

3. How the Pandemic Is Helping The Military Prep For World War III

4. Pentagon Reservation Plan for Resilience and 'Aligning With National Guidelines for Opening Up America Again'

5. FDD | The Fallout From China's Hong Kong Power Play

6. Liminal and conceptual envelopment: warfare in the age of dragons (Interview with Dave Kilcullen)

7. YouTube is deleting comments with two phrases that insult China's Communist Party

8.  Trump's national security chief slashes staff to half of Obama levels

9.  The Coronavirus Is Deadliest Where Democrats Live

10. Let's get serious about US-Taiwan cybersecurity cooperation

11. Reflections on Reading Great Books with Colonels

12. China Will Use Its Digital Currency To Compete With The USD

13. Taiwan president pledges humanitarian relief for Hong Kongers

14. Russian fighters flown out of western Libya after Haftar retreat

15. Hackers have started targeting medical research. Here's why.

 

1. Trump Wants Troops in Afghanistan Home by Election Day. The Pentagon Is Drawing Up Plans.

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · May 26, 2020

I feel for the planners in the Pentagon, Tampa, and Kabul.  This plan and the process it goes through will be studied in PME institutions for years to come. I hope all the planners and commanders are keeping good notes.   Books will be written about this.

2. How the Taliban Outlasted a Superpower: Tenacity and Carnage

The New York Times · by Mujib Mashal · May 26, 2020

Given the reports on POTUS direction to have US troop home prior to the November election seems to make this a reality.

All the sayings come to mind here. Americans have the watches and the Taliban has the time.

"You will kill ten of our men, and we will kill one of yours, and in the end it will be you who tires of it" Ho Chi Minh (1969)

The United States has a strategy based on arithmetic. They question the computers, add and subtract, extract square roots, and then go into action. But arithmetical strategy doesn't work here. If it did, they would already have exterminated us with their airplanes.
- Gen Vo Nguyen Giap

"The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerilla wins if he does not lose."  Henry Kissinger, Foreign Affairs, Jan 1969

Compare the article below with this 1990 NY Times article on General Giap. Giap Remembers by Stanley Karnow https://www.nytimes.com/1990/06/24/magazine/giap-remembers.html

3. How the Pandemic Is Helping The Military Prep For World War III

defenseone.com · by BY PATRICK TUCKERTECHNOLOGY EDITOR READ BIO

Fascinating (to me at least) though I suppose the big data experts consider this routine.

What I do not see in the article is whether this data was shared with the CDC and other appropriate agencies to include States and the White House task force.  Are they using this now to help the national and state response?  But I guess ESRI is the key component that supported this effort and already supports the national response.

4. Pentagon Reservation Plan for Resilience and 'Aligning With National Guidelines for Opening Up America Again'

MAY 26, 2020 defense.gov

The 7 page Pentagon plan is here. https://media.defense.gov/2020/May/26/2002305810/-1/-1/1/PENTAGON-RESERVATION-PLAN-FOR-RESILIENCE-AND-ALIGNING-WITH-NATIONAL-GUIDELINES-FOR-OPENING-UP-AMERICA-AGAIN.PDF

As I glanced through this plan what struck me is the Pentagon is probably the only US entity that is actually implementing the White House guidance for opening.  No State, territory, or district seems to be following the White House guidance. Only the Pentagon (I am sure other agencies such as State, etc will follow the White House guidance as well.  And as stated this is just for the Pentagon reservation. The real question is what is the guidance to the rest of the US military around the world?

The Pentagon will be the national control group.  It will be interesting to see if the White House guidance proves to be the best and if so it will be a shame no one else followed it.

5. FDD | The Fallout From China's Hong Kong Power Play

fdd.org · by Craig Singleton Adjunct Fellow · May 26, 2020

From our newest colleague at FDD.  It will be quite interesting to see if we change our relationship with Hong Kong and if businesses pull out because of the new law.

6. Liminal and conceptual envelopment: warfare in the age of dragons (Interview with Dave Kilcullen)

Octavian Manea’s SWJ interview with Dave Kilcullen,

I am enjoying Dave's new book.  I think this is really a key point that we should be thinking deeply about: "Liminal means threshold. Liminal warfare is about threshold manipulation. It is a style of warfare that the Russians in particular have perfected, which is about riding the edge of observability, surfing the threshold of detectability so a lot of their activity is literally sub-liminal ("below the threshold" of perception), and we don't even notice what is happening."

7. YouTube is deleting comments with two phrases that insult China's Communist Party

The Verge · by James Vincent · May 26, 2020

These are the two phrases: "共匪" ("communist bandit") or "五毛" ("50-cent party").  Those must really be insulting to the communists.  Since they call us "barbarians" maybe we should ask YouTube to ban those words coming out of China (note sarcasm). 

8.  Trump's national security chief slashes staff to half of Obama levels

New York Post · by Ebony Bowden · May 26, 2020

I suppose they are going for the Scowcroft model.  Often less is more. I remember we took only about a dozen C-Team guys for the headquarters to the Philippines when we initially deployed (160 person force cap so we maximized our ODA numbers and our B-Teams (which also were small as well).  But we had a very robust reach back capability to Okinawa.  But I was very proud of the amount of work the small staff could do to command and control the operation.  Not that that compares to the NSC but as I said often less is more.

9.  The Coronavirus Is Deadliest Where Democrats Live

The New York Times · by Jennifer Medina · May 25, 2020

Fascinating analysis from the NY Times. 

10. Let's get serious about US-Taiwan cybersecurity cooperation

Washington Examiner · by Mathew Ha · May 19, 2020

From my colleague, Mathew Ha.

11. Reflections on Reading Great Books with Colonels

warontherocks.com · by Jacqueline E. Whitt · May 25, 2020

All important books.  I would also recommend reading Charles Hill's book Grand Strategies: Literature, Statecraft, and World Order.  It is a fascinating survey of literature and its relationship to  grand strategy and statecraft. I would also include General Mattis book Call Sign Chaos which also a survey of literature and history and their practical application to military operations. My only comment is we that we should be conducting this kind of seminar much earlier in the PME process.  We should have to wait to be Colonels to experience this kind of intellectual challenge.  The description of the program seems somewhat similar to my experience in SAMS (though I think the reading load was heavier!)

12. China Will Use Its Digital Currency To Compete With The USD

Forbes · by Roger Huang · May 25, 2020

China would like to break the world's dependence on the dollar.  The dollar as the reserve currency is one of the most important national security concerns for the US.  Without it we would not be able to sustain the massive debt we have taken on and the loss of the dollar as the reserve currency would break the US economy.  Although I do not think digital currency will replace the dollar anytime soon, never say never and we need to remain vigilant in sustaining the dollar as the reserve currency. 

13. Taiwan president pledges humanitarian relief for Hong Kongers

japantimes.co.jp · by Internal Submission · May 27, 2020

I would include copies of Gene Sharp's from Dictatorship to Democracy. https://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FDTD.pdf

14. Russian fighters flown out of western Libya after Haftar retreat

Al Jazeera English

15. Hackers have started targeting medical research. Here's why.

Axios · by Zach Dorfman

 

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"Whatever it is that the government does, sensible Americans would prefer that the government does it to somebody else. This is the idea behind foreign policy." 

- P. J. O'Rourke 

 

"A strong, unwavering relationship between the U.S. and its allies Japan and South Korea is necessary for the national and economic security of all three countries."

- Lois Frankel

 

"The more often a stupidity is repeated, the more it gets the appearance of wisdom." 

- Voltaire