Forde-Yard Dash: Potential Playoff Chaos Scenarios

As things stand now, there could be several three-way conference ties (and a possible coin flip) that could make things rather difficult for the CFP committee.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Texas isn’t back until it can score on first-and-goal from the 1-yard line:

First Quarter: Close-Game Blunders

Second Quarter: Playoff chaos scenarios 

The undefeated herd was thinned considerably Saturday (including the Thundering Herd of Marshall, which went down to North Carolina State). There are 11 left in the Power 5 conferences, plus three others—Air Force, Liberty and James Madison, which is ineligible for postseason play as a transitional program from FCS.

These things have a way of working themselves out from a College Football Playoff perspective, but there are some potential scenarios that could leave the selection committee members stewing over their steak and jalapeño creamed corn when the meetings commence later this month in Dallas. Let’s examine a few of them.

Three undefeated teams in the ACC (11). It could happen, because the three current unbeatens in the league don’t play one another in the regular season. And wouldn’t that be glorious? Check out the potential tiebreaker scenarios below in a conference that no longer has divisions and would be trying to decide which two teams reach the ACC championship game.

Florida State has done the most of the three to date to establish its credentials, with wins over LSU and Clemson, both away from home. Games left against currently ranked teams: No. 17 Duke at home Oct. 21 and No. 25 Miami at home Nov. 11. Other tests: at rival Florida on Nov. 25. Chances of finishing 12–0: legitimate.

North Carolina (12) has played a light schedule but rolled through it 5–0, most recently throttling Pittsburgh. Quarterback Drake Maye had his best performance of the season against the Panthers. Games left against currently ranked teams: No. 25 Miami at home Saturday and No. 17 Duke at home Nov. 11. Other tests: at Clemson on Nov. 18 and at rival N.C. State on Nov. 25. Chances of finishing 12–0: unlikely.

Louisville (13) put its first big skin on the wall by beating Notre Dame handily Saturday. While the other victories by the Cardinals were not particularly eye-opening, there is this fact: They play 10 games against power-conference opponents, plus the Fighting Irish. Games left against currently ranked teams: No. 17 Duke at home Oct. 28, at No. 25 Miami on Nov. 18, home against No. 24 Kentucky on Nov. 25. Chances of finishing 12–0: also unlikely.

Clearly, both Duke and Miami are positioned to blow up everything—and put themselves in contention—if they can score multiple victories over the above three opponents. But if we end up with 12–0 Florida State, 12–0 North Carolina and 12–0 Louisville, choosing which two will go to the ACC championship game could be fun.

The most likely tiebreaker scenario at that point would be the combined winning percentage of conference opponents. There are several weeks ahead, obviously, but as of now those percentages are as follows: Florida State .568 (25–19), North Carolina .556 (25–15), Louisville .489 (22–23). If for some reason those winning percentages produce a deadlock, the next tiebreaker is the team rating score from Sports Source Analytics.

And if all else fails, the last stop is this: “a draw as administered by the commissioner or commissioner’s designee.” Try to imagine the paranoia in Tallahassee if it comes down to that, given Florida State’s overt antagonism toward the conference office in recent months.

Three one-loss teams in the Big Ten East Division (14). Not terribly far-fetched. Let’s just say the home teams win the big showdown games in the coming weeks. That would mean Ohio State beating Penn State in Columbus, Penn State beating Michigan in State College and Michigan beating Ohio State in Ann Arbor.

If that happens we will end up with three teams at 11–1 overall, 8–1 in Big Ten play. Then this will become a replay of the Big 12 in 2008, when Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech were all deadlocked atop the South Division and feuding over who should go to the league championship game. (Oklahoma won that battle, won the Big 12 title and then lost to Florida in the BCS championship game.)

Michigan has steamrolled everyone but hasn’t yet played a conference opponent with a winning record. That might not change until Nov. 11. The Wolverines gave themselves a cupcake nonconference schedule, then the league followed up with another order of cupcakes through the first two-thirds of the Big Ten slate.

Penn State (15) dominated 5–1 Iowa, which for the moment is the best league win any of the Big Three has put on the board. In terms of nonconference accomplishment, the Nittany Lions’ season-opening victory over West Virginia is holding up well.

Ohio State (16) has the best nonconference victory of the three, over Notre Dame in South Bend, although that lost some currency when the Fighting Irish were trucked by Louisville on Saturday. The looming potential trap game for the Buckeyes is at Wisconsin on Oct. 28, a week after Ohio State plays Penn State.

For the Big Ten to resolve a potential three-way tie atop a division, this could be the tiebreaker: “The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.”

At the moment, Penn State wins that one. Its three West Division opponents are 10–8, Ohio State’s are 9–8 and Michigan’s are 8–10. (If you want to get into the weeds in terms of rooting interest, Buckeyes fans should be pulling for Wisconsin to beat Iowa on Saturday, and Penn State fans should be rooting for the opposite outcome.)

Also: Maryland (5–1) is the most dangerous potential spoiler, with home games remaining against both Penn State (Nov. 4) and Michigan (Nov. 18).

Three one-loss teams in the Pac-12 (17). This is a longer shot than the Big Ten, given the depth of competition in the conference. But as theorized with that league, let’s presume the current unbeatens in the league all beat one another at home: No. 7 Washington beats No. 8 Oregon on Saturday in Seattle, No. 10 USC beats Washington on Nov. 4 in Los Angeles and Oregon beats USC on Nov. 11 in Eugene. (There are several other looming complications to that scenario in a league that still has seven teams with one or zero losses.)

Washington (18) has won the eyeball test to date, with only one game decided by fewer than 27 points. The Huskies have the No. 1 offense nationally in yards per game, yards per play and passing yards per game. But the competition hasn’t been great, with both Boise State and Michigan State scuffling through the first half of the season. Washington has five high-level games remaining, four of them in a rugged November.

Oregon (19) has had a manageable schedule to this point, but now it gets real. The next three games: at Washington, home against Washington State, at Utah. Three of the Ducks’ four November games are at home. In a league where defenses are improving*, Oregon’s is tied with Utah for the league lead in fewest points allowed. (*Other than USC’s.)

USC (20) is fortunate to still be undefeated after that carnival against Arizona on Saturday night, but escaping close games is part of virtually every successful season. The Trojans still have Caleb Williams, who leads the nation in pass efficiency, which is a fine place to start. But wow, the remaining schedule is daunting, with Notre Dame on the road this week and then Utah immediately after—a pair of rough-and-tumble trenches battles. Then USC will finish with Washington, Oregon and UCLA.

Like the ACC tiebreaker, this could come down to winning percentages of conference opponents—although the Pac-12 stipulates that would be their winning percentage in conference games, not overall. At the moment that favors the Ducks and Huskies (both 12–13) over the Trojans (9–14). If this goes past that tiebreaker, the next step is also a Sports Source Analytics ranking, followed by the ever-popular coin flip.

Utah (4–1) looms as the eliminator in this scenario, with games against all three of the above teams. The two-time league champions will not go quietly; they should get healthier in the coming weeks, and Kyle Whittingham’s teams have been known to get better as the season goes along.