Tom Verducci’s Top MLB Players of the First Half
The first half of the baseball season has flown by. Thanks to the pitch timer, which has cut 26 minutes of dead time from the average game, baseball has not been played this fast in 39 years. Packed inside the quicker pace are more hits, runs and stolen bases. And plenty of drama.
The biggest stories of the first half include Shohei Ohtani and Luis Arráez chasing history, the National League chasing the Braves ever since they started 14–4, the American League chasing the Rays ever since they started 13–0 and seven of the 11 lowest payroll teams holding at least a share of a playoff position (Orioles, Rays, Guardians, Reds, Marlins, D-Backs and Brewers), while half the playoff field from last season is on the wrong side of the cut line (Phillies, Mets, Cardinals, Padres, Blue Jays, Mariners). The game has flipped as the new rules reward younger, faster, more athletic teams.
Watch MLB with fuboTV. Start your free trial today.
Keep this in mind as you study the standings: of the 12 teams in playoff position last year on the Fourth of July, nine held their spots. The only changes: St. Louis made up three games on Milwaukee, Cleveland erased a 3 ½ game deficit to Minnesota and Seattle came back from seven behind Boston. All come-from-behind teams played at least .613 baseball after the holiday.
As the second half of the schedule begins this week, it’s time to pick my All-Star teams, the first half award winners and the most likely playoff teams:
All-Star Teams
American LeagueC Jonah Heim, Rangers
Traded by the Orioles, Rays and A’s by age 26, Heim is having a breakout season with more value than Adley Rutschman.
1B Yandy Díaz, Rays
He stands out in a rather mediocre field. Buoyed by the security of a three-year contract, Diaz, an old-school hitter who craves hitting .300 and loathes strikeouts, took more chances earlier in the season by catching pitches out front and getting the ball in the air. He’s been rewarded with a career-best .511 slugging and 12 homers, just two short of his career high, but over the past five homerless weeks has gone back to the security of scorching line drives the other way.
Bebeto Matthews/AP
2B Marcus Semien, Rangers
At age 32, Semien plays every day, sprays hits all over the field, runs the bases well and plays solid defense. There is nobody close to him in the league at second base.
SS Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
Wander Franco has the higher WAR and Cory Seager the better rate stats, but Bichette gets the nod because of his insatiable quest for hits that recalls Pete Rose: he never gives away an at-bat.
3B José Ramirez, Guardians
Matt Chapman started hot and leads the league in doubles, but Ramirez is having the better season and it’s not close. Ramirez has more walks than strikeouts.
OF Luis Robert Jr., White Sox
He leads AL outfielders in WAR, home runs and total bases. Just imagine how great he would be if he didn’t chase pitches 40% of the time.
OF Adolis García, Rangers
At one time he and Randy Arozarena were roommates in the Cardinals system. St. Louis gave them both away.
OF Randy Arozarena, Rays
An amazing improvement in chase rate (from 36th percentile to 70th) helps earn Arozarena the slight edge on Mike Trout, who is hitting .239 against a barrage of four-seamers and sinkers (a whopping 63%).
DH Shohei Ohtani, Angels
More amazing than ever, Ohtani leads the league in triples, home runs, RBIs, slugging, OPS, WAR and total bases ... while on the mound allowing the lowest hit rate and racking up the highest strikeout rate. He has a legit shot at the triple crown, sitting just five hits away from leading in batting average, homers and RBIs.
SP Shane McClanahan, Rays
You also can’t go wrong with Nathan Eovaldi, who has more innings and strikeouts, and Framber Valdez, who has the league-best ERA.
RP Félix Bautista, Orioles
While posting a 1.19 ERA, he has struck out 76 of the 151 batters he has faced in 37.2 innings.
National League
C Sean Murphy, Braves
He holds slight edges virtually across the board over the Dodgers’ Will Smith. He could be the first qualified catcher with a .900-plus OPS since Buster Posey in 2012.
1B Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
It’s hard to leave off the league leader in homers and RBIs, Matt Olson. But Freeman has more hits, the higher OPS+ and the better WAR. And when you need the big hit, Freeman is clearly your guy, outhitting Olson with runners in scoring position .353 to .241.
2B Luis Arráez, Marlins
Ketel Marte of Arizona has more runs, homers, RBIs and total bases, but I’m sorry, I must go with any hitter who chases .400 for even half a season. My favorite measurement of Arráez’s wizardry: he is out-hitting everybody in baseball even if you consider what he does just on pitches outside the strike zone (.337).
SS Dansby Swanson, Cubs
Only three qualified shortstops in the NL have an OPS+ above 100. Swanson, the WAR leader, gets the nod over Francisco Lindor of the Mets and Xander Bogaerts of the Padres.
3B Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
Flip a coin between Arenado and Austin Riley. A weird two-week fielding slump hurt Arenado’s WAR, but he has slight edges in home runs, RBIs and OPS.
OF Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
This is crazy: Acuña leads the league in stolen bases and slugging. Only five players have done that, none in the past 66 years: Ty Cobb (four times), Honus Wagner (four times), Chuck Klein (1932), Snuffy Stirnweiss (’45) and Willie Mays (’57).
OF Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
He is on pace to join Mitchell Page (1977) and Mike Trout (2012) as the only rookies with at least 40 steals and a .900 OPS. Carroll could be the first such rookie to do so for a playoff team.
OF Mookie Betts, Dodgers
He has out-slugged Juan Soto and Fernando Tatís Jr. of the Padres. Betts is on pace to become only the fourth player 5’9” and shorter to hit 40 home runs, which only Mel Ott, Hack Wilson and Roy Campanella have done.
DH J.D. Martinez, Dodgers
Reunited with hitting guru Robert Van Scoyoc, Martinez is having a big bounceback season and remains one of the best high fastball hitters in the game.
SP Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
He hasn’t made 30 starts since 2015, but for half a season Kershaw has been dominant.
RP Josh Hader, Padres
The ultimate closer: batters are 5-for-66 (.076) when Hader gets two strikes on them.
AL MVP
Mark J. Terrill/AP
1. Shohei Ohtani, Angels
2. Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
3. Marcus Semien, Rangers
4. Wander Franco, Rays
5. José Ramirez, Guardians
6. Luis Robert Jr., White Sox
7. Randy Arozarena, Rays
8. Adolis García, Rangers
9. Yordan Álvarez, Astros
10. Matt Chapman, Blue Jays
NL MVP
1. Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
2. Mookie Betts, Dodgers
3. Corbin Carroll, D-Backs
4. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
5. Sean Murphy, Braves
6. Luis Arráez, Marlins
7. Ketel Marte, D-Backs
8. Matt Olson, Braves
9. Juan Soto, Padres
10. Camilo Doval, Giants
AL Cy Young Award
1. Shane McClanahan, Rays
2. Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers
3. Framber Valdez, Astros
4. Gerrit Cole, Yankees
5. Shohei Ohtani, Angels
NL Cy Young Award
David Zalubowski/AP
1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
2. Zac Gallen, D-Backs
3. Marcus Stroman, Cubs
4. Bryce Elder, Braves
5. Justin Steele, Cubs
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Josh Jung, Rangers
2. Hunter Brown, Astros
3. Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Corbin Carroll, D-Backs
2. Eury Pérez, Marlins
3. Matt McLain, Reds
AL Manager of the Year
1. Bruce Bochy, Rangers
2. Kevin Cash, Rays
3. Brandon Hyde, Orioles
NL Manager of the Year
1. Torey Lovullo, D-Backs
2. Skip Schumaker, Marlins
3. David Bell, Reds
Most likely playoff teams
AL Division Winners: Rays, Twins, Rangers
AL Wild Card Teams: Orioles, Yankees, Astros
NL Division Winners: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers
NL Wild Card Teams: D-Backs, Phillies, Giants