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Challenging the conventional wisdom on each top-25 team

Now that we have rankings to work with, here are a couple things to keep in mind about each team.

The AP Top 25 is out, offering a nice starting point for endless arguments. So let’s get right to them.

1. Alabama

Conventional wisdom: It’s Alabama.

Counterpoint: This is Bama’s most complete rebuild since Nick Saban’s first season. An overhauled coaching staff will need to get young defenders up to speed. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts’ future hangs over the program.

2. Clemson

Conventional wisdom: The preseason All-ACC first team DL is nothing but Tigers, while Kelly Bryant’s back at QB ... along with five-star freshman QB Trevor Lawrence. This team is loaded with proven playmakers and lacks obvious ACC challengers.

Counterpoint: The breakthrough Tigers with Deshaun Watson had elite passing. Dabo Swinney has yet to field an OL that can lead running backs against Alabama-grade defenses, and there are questions about Bryant’s passing.

3. Georgia

Conventional wisdom: Kirby Smart continues to add highly ranked recruiting classes. A loaded, young OL will make a star of RB D’Andre Swift, while Jake Fromm will be a year older and ready to make the most of some talented receivers.

Counterpoint: Last year depended on a few ingredients that will be missing: LT Isaiah Wynn, who was so dominant that he was selected in the first round despite being measured at only 6’3”; a senior-led defense; and the two-headed monster at RB, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb. A bet on Georgia is a bet on Smart’s culture and improving talent levels finding another formula.

4. Wisconsin

Conventional wisdom: Loads of experience on the OL returns for RB Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 1,977 yards. Between that, senior QB Alex Hornibrook, and a seemingly plug-and play-defense, the Badgers seem poised to take another step.

Counterpoint: The 2017 Badgers had one of the easiest schedules you could dream up for a Big Ten program. Between a nondescript non-conference slate, a down B1G West, and a home date with a beat-up Michigan, this team wasn’t really tested until they played Ohio State. They then lost five players to the NFL draft, including star TE Troy Fumagalli, who helped create the nation’s seventh best “passing-downs” offense.

The 2018 Badgers are starting underclassmen across the defense while taking road trips to Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State. The media might be a year late on UW.

5. Ohio State

Conventional wisdom: The Buckeyes return many of the best components of a 12-2 team. They have RBs JK Dobbins and Mike Weber, while WRs Parris Campbell and Demario McCall catch balls from talented sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins. The defensive line would be the talk of the country, if not for Clemson’s, and Ohio State has blue-chip recruits plugging all the leaks.

Counterpoint: We’ve yet to see the fallout from Ohio State’s investigation into Urban Meyer, and while Haskins could be an improvement over J.T. Barrett, this is still replacing a QB who won a ton of games.

6. Washington

Conventional wisdom: The Huskies had more of a rebuild a year ago then many realized, and much of Chris Petersen’s recruiting was a year or so away. Well, now it’s time to pay off. The offense has tons of returning starters, including fourth-year starting QB Jake Browning, RB Myles Gaskin, the entire OL, and a deep stable of versatile TEs. The defense managed to replace its huge losses and now returns all five starters on the back end.

Counterpoint: We’ve yet to see Petersen’s Huskies beat a Playoff-caliber opponent. The 2016 team was taken down at home by USC before having to face Alabama, while the 2017 team was edged out by Stanford and Penn State. They’ll get another chance in Week 1.

7. Oklahoma

Conventional wisdom: Losing Baker Mayfield is tough, but Lincoln Riley has three experienced members of a dominant OL, a pair of potential 1,000-yard backs in Rodney Anderson and Trey Sermon, and two of his three top targets. They also have a former five-star QB in Kyler Murray, whose physical prowess has already earned him a $4.6 million contract to play baseball.

Counterpoint: That defense ... doesn’t inspire confidence. The Sooners will also struggle to match the production of the Mayfield era.

8. Miami

Conventional wisdom: The Hurricanes looked like a contender until late November. Their spread run punch of QB Malik Rosier and RB Travis Homer returns, along with most of the OL.

Counterpoint: The 2017 team was strongest on defense, and much came from a DL that was gutted by departures and the loss of highly regarded DL coach Craig Kuligowski to Alabama.

9. Auburn

Conventional wisdom: Gus Malzahn’s latest transfer QB, Jarrett Stidham, gives the Tigers a passing dimension they’ve rarely had. There’s a lot of returning talent on both sides, with the defense poised for another top-10 unit.

Counterpoint: Kerryon Johnson running behind All-SEC RG Braden Smith and Swiss Army knife Austin Golson was a major piece, and all are gone. Stidham struggled when pressured, and the Tigers are counting on a retooled OL and run game.

10. Penn State

Conventional wisdom: Trace McSorley + five years of James Franklin recruiting = B1G contention.

Counterpoint: Franklin’s record when his OC isn’t named Joe Moorhead is 14-12 (versus 22-5), and McSorley’s partners, RB Saquon Barkley and TE Mike Gesicki, are gone. McSorley, at 6’ and 203 pounds, has had 290 carries over the last two years without sustaining a major injury. Can he stay healthy? And how much does it matter, with Tommy Stevens waiting in the wings?

11. Michigan State

Conventional wisdom: The Spartans bounced back thanks to high-level QB play from dual-threat Brian Lewerke and hard-nosed LBs, sound-tackling safeties, and walk-on DE Kenny Willekes, who led the team in sacks (7.5). Basically all those elements return, along with an improving OL.

Counterpoint: The other Big Ten blue-bloods continue to recruit and play at a higher level than they were at the beginning of Mark Dantonio’s run.

12. Notre Dame

Conventional wisdom: The Irish lose an all-time left side of their OL in Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson.

Counterpoint: The defense figures to improve, despite losing rising star DC Mike Elko to Texas A&M. OC Chip Long has had another year to install more of his RPOs into their brutal run game. And Brian Kelly’s Irish plug in some new stars across the offense and can put together another 10-win season, strapped to the legs and improving arm of QB Brandon Wimbush.

13. Stanford

Conventional wisdom: The OL and Bryce Love will continue to be a nightmare, while QB K.J. Costello could break out with an experienced cast of targets. The defense has to replace all of its high-impact players, which limits the ground-and-pound strategy.

Counterpoint: The Cardinal always have rising players, thanks to David Shaw’s clever, national recruiting strategy that leverages the value of a Stanford offer. If the defense proves better than expected, this team becomes a load in a hurry.

14. Michigan

Conventional wisdom: The defense was dominant after returning only two starters and seems poised to cement its place as one of the most perennially elite units in the country. However, Harbaugh’s offense faltered, he has a single win against either of his two main rivals, and they figure to switch QBs yet again while rebuilding at offensive tackle.

Counterpoint: The Harbaugh transition class was small and left a hole between the Brady Hoke roster and the future Harbaugh team. This will be the first time that the roster is filled out with Harbaugh recruits who have been around for multiple seasons. If QB Shea Patterson pans out, this could be the best team in the country.

15. USC

Conventional wisdom: No Sam Darnold and a beat-up defense that struggled through 2017 and whose best player (OLB Porter Gustin) has injury issues? The Trojans seem like a rebuilding team with a prodigy freshman at QB in J.T. Daniels.

Counterpoint: The surrounding infrastructure is comparable to the excellent 2016 team. If Daniels has a quick start, then this deep and skilled offense could be scary.

16. TCU

Conventional wisdom: Another Gary Patterson defense joins with young offensive talent in QB Shawn Robinson and WR Jalen Reagor, calling to mind the old Trevone Boykin-Josh Doctson duo.

Counterpoint: The Frogs have talented underclassmen, but they’ll be leaning on them all over the field. Emerging star DT Ross Blacklock is lost for the year.

17. West Virginia

Conventional wisdom: The Will Grier-to-David Sills connection is the surest thing in the Big 12, and Dana Holgorsen has used transfers to patch together an impressive roster.

Counterpoint: The defense was dreadful in 2017 and doesn’t have many obvious impact players emerging. Depth is also a concern.

18. Mississippi State

Conventional wisdom: One of the more cutting-edge offensive coaches takes over a team with a star RB and two good running QBs along with a stocked offensive line and defense. However, it’s a new offensive system going up against the SEC West.

Counterpoint: The Bulldogs have talent and experience, and the new system should meld with the skills of QB Nick Fitzgerald and the OL. The rest of the SEC West doesn’t have quite the same stability at QB, and Moorhead’s system was a boon at Penn State.

19. Florida State

Conventional wisdom: The Noles are talented, but with only a few returning starters and new systems courtesy of HC Willie Taggart, it should take a year or so to see the results.

Counterpoint: Jimbo Fisher’s teams ran read-and-react schemes on defense and a complex, pro-style offense. Taggart is bringing a simple, run-centric spread that should clear space for potential star RB Cam Akers, while DC Harlon Barnett brings an aggressive, base-oriented, Michigan State scheme.

20. Virginia Tech

Conventional wisdom: The Hokies should chug along with another strong Bud Foster defense, but QB Josh Jackson is a sophomore and has to lead a young cast of skill talent.

Counterpoint: The Hokies are in year three with Justin Fuente, established both in his spread offense and Foster’s defense. Other than Clemson, is any other ACC team clearly better, if Jackson and Fuente’s recruits make a leap?

21. UCF

Conventional wisdom: The “defending champions” lose Scott Frost’s coaching staff, but most of their players return, including star QB McKenzie Milton for new HC Josh Heupel.

Counterpoint: Heupel boosted Missouri by installing the Art Briles veer-and-shoot offense. That system is designed for strong-armed pocket passers moreso than scramblers like Milton, and USF had growing pains while making a similar transition with Quinton Flowers. Meanwhile, the D loses two real stars to the NFL.

22. Boise State

Conventional wisdom: Typical year for the perennial Mountain West contenders and bowl titans.

Counterpoint: The Broncos lose generational LB talent Leighton Vander Esch ... but return almost the entirety of a good defense otherwise, including OLB/edge rushers Curtis Weaver and Jabril Frazier, who combined for 17 sacks a year ago. The offense is led by fourth-year starting QB Brett Rypien and 2017’s breakout RB Alexander Mattison. This might be one of Boise State’s best seasons in a while.

23. Texas

Conventional wisdom: Tom Herman’s Longhorns played great defense and went 9-4 against the spread. However, the offense was as bad as ever. Questions include QB, the defense that lost multiple players to the NFL, and even punter, where a game-changing player is gone.

Counterpoint: The Longhorns are relying on fewer freshmen now. The last time this team played in the same offensive system for two consecutive years, it was also very young (2012) and jumped from 55th to 12th in offensive S&P+. The defense was without stars like DeShon Elliott and Malik Jefferson in the Texas Bowl and still throttled Missouri.

24. Oregon

Conventional wisdom: A second year of turnover at HC could complicate the rebuild, as could stiff competition in the Pac-12 North from Stanford and Washington.

Counterpoint: DC Jim Leavitt’s defenses have made major improvements in year two before, while the offense has returning starters across the OL, along with NFL prospect Justin Herbert healthy at QB.

25. LSU

Conventional wisdom: Sure, the Tigers are talented, but they were an inconsistent mess last year, then parted ways with another OC. Every major skill player on offense, including the QB, is now gone.

Counterpoint: The defense will be older and better, and they weren’t bad a year ago. The offense, now led by a trusted Ed Orgeron assistant in Steve Ensminger, has been infused with transfers such as Ohio State QB Joe Burrow, Texas Tech 1,000-yard WR Jonathan Giles, and former blue-chip and Ole Miss WR transfer Dee Anderson. This is a different team with a lot of talent. If the Tigers find an identity, they’re much better than a fringe top-25 team.

What do you think?

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