2024 NBA Western Conference Finals odds and picks: Mavericks-Timberwolves might not be the long series fans are expecting

The Timberwolves are not a fluke.

The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves are a prime example of why the phrase “that’s why they play the game” exists.

They entered the season with the seventh- and 10th-best odds, respectively, to win the Western Conference, according to SportsOddsHistory. And even entering the playoffs, three West teams were favored over Dallas and five over Minnesota — after Minnesota finished the regular season with the league’s fourth-best record, one game behind the top seed in the conference? Talk about slept on.

Now, one of these teams is a series away from advancing to the NBA Finals, which would be the first appearance in franchise history for the Timberwolves, who are the -185 favorites at BetMGM. The Mavericks have +150 odds to advance to their third ever finals and first since beating the Miami Heat in 2011.

If you’re picking the Mavericks to prevail, you’re doing so for one reason and one reason only. And that’s because of the duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. For my money, they’re the best two-man tandem remaining in the playoffs, and Doncic is arguably the best player remaining after finishing the season third in MVP voting.

However, if there’s one team in the West potentially capable of slowing down Doncic and Irving, it’s the Timberwolves, which is why they’re my pick to move on. Minnesota had the NBA’s best defensive rating in the regular season by more than two points per 100 possessions, and it’s been even better in the playoffs — even after series against the reigning champion Denver Nuggets and offensive-minded Phoenix Suns.

By comparison, Dallas should be an easier team to defend. Especially with Doncic still nursing knee and ankle injuries. The Timberwolves do have Jaden McDaniels after all. Plus, the presence of Rudy Gobert in the paint, along with the defensively-improved Karl-Anthony Towns lurking, should make it tough for Dallas to drive and finish or kick it out for open threes by players like P.J. Washington. The Mavericks don’t have a big like Nikola Jokic to consistently occupy Minnesota’s bigs.

In how many games will the series end?

• 4 games (+550): Timberwolves 4-0 (+900), Mavericks 4-0 (+1400)
• 5 games (+220): Timberwolves 4-1 (+400), Mavericks 4-1 (+850)
• 6 games (+200): Timberwolves 4-2 (+500), Mavericks 4-2 (+450)
• 7 games (+220): Timberwolves 4-3 (+425), Mavericks 4-3 (+750)

Conversely, Anthony Edwards should be able to exploit mismatches to create offense for himself and others on the Timberwolves. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 32 points on 50% shooting and 55% from three against Dallas in the second round.

For all those reasons, I like the Timberwolves to win the series 4-1. I don’t think Dallas will be able to get necessary stops or score consistently enough to win twice, let alone four times this series.

Western Conference MVP

For my MVP, I’m rolling with Edwards at -150, especially after a subpar offensive performance in Minnesota’s Game 7 win over the Nuggets. After scoring just 16 points, I expect him to set the tone in Game 1 against Dallas, as he’s averaging more than 35 points in the three games this postseason immediately following games he scored fewer than 20.

Not to mention, Edwards just seems ready for the moment. He told Charles Barkley to “bring ya ass” to Minnesota for a reason. He fully believes in what this team is capable of, and he’s the driving force behind it, averaging 29 points on 50% shooting this postseason. I fully expect for him to continue that type of output against the Mavericks to help the Wolves advance.