Packers vs. 49ers : Two coaching decisions that will decide the NFC Championship game

We watched the film to identify the most important elements of the NFC Championship matchup.

37-8.

If you aren’t familiar with those numbers, you’re probably not a Packers or 49ers fan. Those numbers have been thrown around a lot this week in the run-up to the NFC Championship Game. It was the score of the first matchup between these two teams, which San Francisco dominated from the opening play.

The 49ers defense was particularly dominant, holding Aaron Rodgers to a season-low 104 passing yards. Meanwhile, Jimmy Garropolo had a chill day, throwing only 20 passes but averaging over 12 yards per attempt. The 49ers’ ground game helped grind down the Packers defense and close out the easy victory.

Will it be so easy for the 49ers this time around or will Green Bay make it more competitive? Here are two strategic questions that will dictate how the NFC title game plays out…

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When the 49ers have the ball: How will Green Bay hide Blake Martinez?

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Overall the 49ers had a good day running the football, but the Packers did manage to take away their base run concept: the outside zone. Green Bay did so with their 3-3 front with three down linemen flaked by two stand up edge players and a linebacker in the middle.

The outside linebackers would set a hard edge and force the running back to cut inside where the linemen have all of the cut back lanes clogged. Kyle Shanahan found other answers, though. He exploited the space between the edge player and the linemen with long traps and windback zone plays that created a crease for the running back.

Here’s the long trap play…

And the windback zone, which looks like the outside zone run play but with the fullback cutting back and the runner following his path…

Those plays kept the 49ers’ run game on track, but Shanahan’s play-action pass game is mostly built off of those outside zone looks. In theory, Packers defenders would be less inclined to bite on those fakes if the 49ers weren’t running a lot of outside zone during the game, but this game served as further proof that establishing the run isn’t a prerequisite for play-action success, as the 49ers created several big plays off of fakes meant to look like outside zone run plays.

Almost all of those plays were aimed at the middle of the field, where Packers LB Blake Martinez was victimized throughout the game. Shanahan will sometimes gameplan around one particular defensive player he sees as a weak link, and Martinez was clearly the mark in this game. Jimmy Garappolo attacked the middle of the field on almost every downfield pass.

via Next Gen Stats

Per Pro Football Focus, the 49ers targeted Martinez six times in coverage — that’s nearly a third of all of Garoppolo’s attempts! — and completed all six passes. In the rematch, the Packers MUST find a way to give Martinez some help.

In order to do that, they may have to watch some tape of Iowa State’s defense. It appears defensive coordinator Mike Pettine is already familiar as he used the Cyclone’s three-safety defense on one snap against the 49ers. Coverages typically fall into two categories: Single-high safety coverages and double-high safety coverages. Three-high coverages are all the rage in college now, and you can see the Packers using the strategy here…

The Packers are playing a standard Tampa-2 defense with the middle safety taking on the role traditionally played by the middle linebacker. Against the pass he’s responsible for the middle of the field but he also has to drop into the box if the quarterback hands off the ball. His deeper alignment allows him to confirm run or pass before fully committing to either play, which, in theory, would help him to avoid over-committing to play-action fakes.

Making a safety responsible for the middle would also give the Packers more coverage ability in that spot, where Martinez was helpless to stop the 49ers’ crossing routes. Pettine will obviously need more than one solution to the various problems Shanahan will present but any call leaving Martinez to fend for himself over the middle should be left out of the gameplan.

When the Packers have the ball: How will Matt LaFleur help Aaron Rodgers?

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The 49ers are not known for running a diverse defensive scheme, but you wouldn’t know it based on the film of the Week 12 game against Green Bay. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who comes from the Pete Carroll coaching tree known for its undying love of Cover 3 zones, threw all sorts of coverages at LaFleur and company during that game.

He, of course, played his favored Cover 3 zones, but Aaron Rodgers saw plenty of man coverage on third downs.

He also saw blitzes and quarters looks out of Saleh, which must have caught the Packers off guard because they didn’t really have any answers in the passing game. There were numerous instances of Rodgers thinking he had an open receiver but throwing right into the teeth of San Francisco’s coverage.

It didn’t help that Rodgers was under constant pressure and his receivers weren’t getting open. It was up to Rodgers to play hero ball and he wasn’t up to the task that night.

If the Packers are going to pull off the upset on Sunday, LaFleur needs to have a better plan in place. He needs more concepts aimed to beat the coverages Saleh used in the first matchup. Having answers for man coverage would be a good start. A concept like the one we saw last Sunday against the Seahawks may pop up again if the 49ers decide to play a lot of man coverage.

The Packers receivers start as if they are going to run intersecting routes which confuses the Seahawks corners. They don’t know if they want to switch responsibilities, and that hesitation gives Davante Adams a step, and that’s all he and Rodgers needed to find the end zone.

Green Bay is facing a much tougher defense this week, so a good scheme won’t be enough. LaFleur needs to be on his game, but Rodgers will also need to be special, as he was against the Seahawks. If he’s not hitting the kind of throws that he made look routine during his prime, we could be in for another blowout.

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