Titans vs. Chiefs: Two coaching decisions that will decide the AFC Championship game

We watched the film to identify the most important elements of the AFC Championship matchup.

Chiefs-Titans may not have been the AFC matchup NFL fans outside of Tennessee were looking forward to, but it’s not a bad consolation prize. Vegas isn’t giving the Titans much of a chance to win, but we’ve already seen this team take down Kansas City this season.

In Week 10, Tennessee pulled off a 35-32 upset win over the Chiefs thanks to Derrick Henry’s 188-yard rushing performance. Ryan Tannehill, making his fourth start of the season, threw only 18 passes but turned in an efficient performance that included a clutch touchdown drive in the final minute. It was a total team effort for Tennessee’s offense, and they needed it with Patrick Mahomes dealing in his first game back from injury. With no support from his running game, the reigning MVP racked up 446 passing yards and three touchdowns. It wasn’t enough as Tannehill’s late TD throw to Adam Humphries sealed the game late.

We know how that game was won for the Titans, but how will things change in the rematch? Here are the two strategic questions that will decide the AFC title game…

When the Chiefs have the ball: Will the Titans attack Patrick Mahomes with pressure?

Titans defensive coordinator Dean Pees is probably a tired man. He’s spent the last few days trying to come up with a plan to defend quarterback who is impossible to defend. You would think having already coached against Mahomes this season would have given him a head start on prep for the AFC title game, but the first matchup likely gave him more questions than answers.

The Titans tried EVERYTHING to stop Mahomes, and none of it worked. They dropped back into standard zone coverages. He shredded them. They tried to play man coverage. He shredded it. They tried to show one look before the snap and rotate into another after. Yeah, he shredded that, too. In all, Mahomes added 20.8 Expected Points on 50 attempts. That’s a huge number and one the Titans can’t let him replicate if they are going to stand a chance in Sunday’s game. In order to prevent a repeat of the Week 10 game, Pees must find a way to get pressure on Mahomes.

This season, Pees has used simulated pressures — standard four-man rushes with a traditional pass rusher dropping into coverage and a linebacker or defensive back adding to the rush — to get after opposing quarterbacks. Well, those didn’t work against Mahomes the last time these teams played. The Chiefs offensive line did a good job of snuffing them out and providing its quarterback with time to find a void in the zone coverage.

The Titans had their most “success” — relatively speaking, of course — when they sent five or more rushers after Mahomes. Those calls, at the very least, forced the Chiefs QB to make throws from awkward platforms. Now, Mahomes, being the wizard that he is, was able to make it work.

Over and over again.

Mahomes finished the game with an EPA of 8.4 on pressured passing attempts. That was the second-highest total of his 2019 season, but I don’t know if it’s sustainable. Yes, Mahomes is capable of making accurate throws off of one foot, but he’s far more effective when he has his feet under him, obviously.

Pees has to bet that Mahomes will not be able to repeat his performance under pressure in the first game and not shy away from calling blitzes often. He really doesn’t have any other choice.

When the Titans have the ball: Will Kansas City take a page out of its rival’s playbook?

How did the Titans beat the Chiefs the first time around? The same way they’ve been beating teams ever since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback: Force-feeding Derrick Henry and hitting teams over the top with play-action passes.

In that Week 10 matchup, Henry gashed the Chiefs on zone running plays…

And Tannehill was able to produce big plays after carrying out fakes off of that run action…

Going into Sunday’s game, the Chiefs are faced with the same challenge the Patriots were heading into Super Bowl 52 against the Rams: They have to slow down the running game while still being ready to defend play-action shots. So why not use a similar gameplan?

In that game, Bill Belichick employed a 6-1 defensive front and played quarters coverage behind it. The Rams couldn’t run their outside zone plays and Jared Goff struggled to find open receivers in the play-action game.

The Pats used this same strategy a couple weeks ago in their loss to Tennessee but waited far too long to go to the 6-1 front. We didn’t see it until the second half, but Henry had already done most of his damage by then. After the Pats made that switch, Henry was far less effective.

In the second half of that game, Henry had a negative EPA and his success rate dropped to 25%. The 6-1 front has really been the only scheme that has been able to slow down this Titans run game in the last two months.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has proven to be an open-minded coach. He’s not married to one defensive scheme, so this one-week strategic shift would not be out of the ordinary for him. We know the Titans are aiming to control the clock with the run game. Well, the Patriots have already given Spagnuolo a blueprint to stop them from doing so. Will he use it?