The struggling Cowboys offense is missing one key element ... and it's not play-action

We've found the real problem plaguing the Cowboys offense.

It was good to be a Cowboys fan three weeks ago. The team was winning, sitting at 3-0 after an effortless dispatching of a tanking Dolphins team, and, more importantly, the offense had been given a modern makeover courtesy of rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.

The last three weeks haven’t been so fun. Dallas has lost three in a row, including an embarrassing loss to a Jets team quarterbacked by a dude just coming back from a bout with mono. And that offense? It has devolved back into the anachronistic scheme that had Cowboys fans calling for Jason Garrett and former offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s heads throughout the 2018 season.

Naturally, with Linehan gone and Moore having already been anointed as the next offensive genius, the blame has now been placed squarely on Garrett. The conspiracy theorists out there on Cowboys Twitter had it all figured out: Garrett had taken back control over the offense from Moore. That’s why the team was running the ball more and calling fewer play-action passes during the losing streak.

While I’m always down for a good conspiracy theory and some evidenced-based bashing of a coach who refuses to adapt, I don’t know if that’s an accurate summation of the Cowboys problems over the last few weeks. Well, it’s a little more complicated than that, but I’ll explain in a moment.

But, first, let’s talk about the Cowboys situational play-calling over the last three weeks. It hasn’t actually changed much; if anything, it’s actually gotten better on first down. On those plays, Dallas ran the ball about 65% of the time during the win streak. They were sitting on leads in the fourth quarter in each of those games, but even when you take out the fourth quarter, the run percentage during those games was still at 55%. During this losing streak, the Cowboys’ first-down pass percentage during the first three quarters has been slightly higher than it was during the win streak (44.6% to 43.8%). For what it’s worth, the Cowboys were actually passing more often on first down in 2018, with Linehan calling the shots.

The play-calling has improved under Moore on second-and-long, when the Cowboys are passing more often than any team in the league. And that hasn’t changed over the past three weeks. The Cowboys’ pass rate on second-and-long (7 or more yards to go) has been 90% during the losing streak.

So what about the whole play-action thing? After using play-action on 35.4% of their passing attempts over the first three weeks, that number has dropped to 18.0%, per Sports Info Solutions. The declining use of play-action has been propped up as the main culprit for the Cowboys’ offensive regression, but I don’t know if that’s fair. Yes, the play-action pass game did boost the offense over the first three weeks, but it’s been mediocre (or straight-up bad) ever since, as NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund first pointed out before the Jets loss.

“According to Pro Football Focus’ data, one of the main culprits is Prescott’s recent struggles in play-action passing. The fourth-year quarterback flourished off play-action during the 3-0 start to the season (SEE: 81.1 percent completions, 11.1 yards per attempt, 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio, 137.5 passer rating), but his numbers have plummeted over the past two weeks (66.7, 8.2, 0:2, 52.2).”

The Cowboys haven’t been using play-action a regularly as they did at the beginning of the season — Moore chalks it up to being behind in games — but that hasn’t necessarily been a bad thing, as the dropback passing game has been far more effective during the losing streak. Even Ezekiel Elliott runs have added more points than play-action passes over that time.

As an overall strategy, “More runs and fewer play-action passes” is not generally a good one, but based on the results of these past three games, it has been for the Cowboys.

If it’s not the situational play-calling OR the dwindling use of play-action, then what has led to this dip in production? There are two obvious answers and one that is tangentially related to the play-action thing.

The first obvious answer is the Cowboys are playing better teams. The Giants, Redskins and Dolphins all rank in the bottom-third of the league in defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders. The Saints, Packers and Jets all rank in the top-half. It turns out playing better defenses makes it more difficult to play offense. Crazy, I know.

It doesn’t help when you’re dealing with injuries, either. Tryon Smith has been hurt and the Cowboys’ pass protection has, unsurprisingly, fallen off a cliff.

That has also had an impact on the play-action passing game. During the losing streak, the Cowboys have allowed pressure on about 36% of their play-action passes. That number was at about 21% during the win streak. The Cowboys’ inability to protect on those longer-developing plays may explain why Moore has been reluctant to call them.

Injuries have also hit the receiving corps hard. Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb, Devin Smith and, most recently, Amari Cooper have all missed time during this skid, which has forced the Cowboys to run fewer spread sets. You would think that would have more of an effect on the pass game, but it’s the run game that has really felt that blow. Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing average has dropped from 5.3 over the first three weeks to 3.5 over the last three weeks. Why? Because the Cowboys use of two-tight ends has increased out of necessity, drawing more defenders into the box.

While Dallas’ use of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) dropped down by 10% over the last three games, its use of 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) has jumped by 12%. As a result, 64% of the Cowboys’ runs from Week 4 on have come against defenses with seven or more men in the box, compared to 54% over the first three weeks.

And that brings us back to the play-action problem. Moore blames the Cowboys losing for the declining usage, but there’s a more obvious explanation: Dallas, for whatever reason, hasn’t been using RPOs, which are included in the play-action numbers, during their losing streak. Over those first three games, the Cowboys ran 23 RPOs, according to Pro Football Focus. Since then, they’ve run only 10!

And those plays had a lot to do with the Cowboys’ initial success in the play-action pass game. According to Sports Info Solutions, their RPO passes produced an EPA of 0.50 per attempt; here’s where things get really confusing: Per SIS, the Cowboys haven’t attempted an RPO pass since Week 2. The mind boggles.

Dallas’ play-action woes can almost entirely be explained by the lack of RPOs these past few weeks. And calling more of those RPOs would help manipulate numbers in the box, and help the run game get back on track, as well.

With the Eagles coming to two for a game that will shape the NFC East race, Dallas does not need to make major changes to the offense. Just one little tweak may be enough to get this offense back to where it was last month.