It's time we acknowledge Deshaun Watson is just as special as Patrick Mahomes

The Texans QB entered a much worse situation and has played extremely well.

With how Patrick Mahomes has dominated defenses early in his career, it’s easy to forget that he’s not the only quarterback under the age of 25 on track to tear up the NFL record book over the next decade and beyond. Deshaun Watson, that other quarterback, used Sunday’s showdown between the Chiefs and Texans to remind the football world that he is just as worthy of your attention as the league’s reigning MVP.

A quick glance at the box score might convince you that Mahomes outplayed Watson in Houston’s upset win in Kansas City. The Chiefs’ young star averaged 7.8 yards-per-attempt while tossing three touchdowns, good for a passer rating of 96.5. Watson, meanwhile, tossed just one touchdown (though he also ran for two more) and two interceptions, which gave him a passer rating of 77.5. But, as has been the case thus far in their young careers, Mahomes and Watson basically played to a draw even though the numbers suggest that the former was far more productive.

Watson was viewed as a promising young quarterback coming into the season, but the hype surrounding the 12th-overall pick in 2017 was not comparable to the hype surrounding Mahomes after he threw 50 touchdowns in his first season as a starter. But Watson’s production through his first two years in the league was right there with his draft mate’s. Since the start of 2017, Mahomes leads the NFL with an adjusted yards-per-attempt (AY/A) of 9.7. Watson ranks second with an AY/A of 8.7, putting him ahead of Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or any other quarterback you can name. He’s been that good.

That full yard is a significant advantage for Mahomes but we have to take into account the situations both quarterbacks entered upon being drafted. In 2016, the year before Watson and Mahomes were drafted, the Texans ranked 30th in passing DVOA; the Chiefs ranked 10th. In 2017,  Houston ranked 24th despite Watson giving the passing game a record-breaking stretch at the start of the season. Kansas City ranked eighth with Alex Smith behind center. Both Mahomes and Watson have transformed their respective offenses, but the latter has had a lot more work to do.

Watson also didn’t have Andy Reid helping him. Bill O’Brien appears to be a decent offensive coach, but Reid is in his own stratosphere, especially when it comes to giving his QB simple throws that turn into big gains. I’m not exaggerating when I say Reid is in his own stratosphere, either.

Consider this: In 2018, only ONE quarterback produced a positive Expected Points Added (EPA) on throws aimed at or behind the line of scrimmage. That was Mahomes with a total EPA of 4.6, per Sports Info Solutions. Every other starting quarterback was DEEP in the red on those attempts. Mitch Trubisky was second at -18.2. He was followed by Tom Brady at -30.7.

Watson’s EPA on those throws? -86.8.

So, to translate: Reid can design screens that work consistently. Basically nobody else in the league can. Mahomes benefits.

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And it’s not like accuracy was to blame for the wide gap between Mahomes and Watson; the Texans quarterback actually had a slightly higher completion percentage on those throws (76% to 75.8%). Reid is just a magician. Having Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, two of the best yards-after-catch players at their respective positions, probably helped as well.

Here’s where things get interesting: On throws past the line of scrimmage, when the quarterback has more work to do, Watson was a bit more efficient than Mahomes. His attempts produced a positive EPA on 61.5% of his dropbacks. Mahomes finished at 57.3% for the season. Mahomes’ statistical advantage over Watson in 2018 can almost entirely be explained by short throws that require very little of the quarterback.

You can’t talk about Watson without addressing the whole sack thing, and that’s where Mahomes has had a clear advantage over him. Going into Sunday, Watson had been sacked 99 times in his career — more than any other QB during that time — while Mahomes had been sacked only 35 times. Quarterbacks are more responsible for sacks than the football-watching public probably realizes, but Watson’s predilection for holding onto the ball cannot entirely explain the 64-sack gap between the two. After all, Mahomes isn’t exactly Tom Brady when it comes to getting rid of the ball. While Watson had the fourth-longest average time-to-throw in 2018 (3.01 seconds), Mahomes ranked eighth (2.91 seconds), per Next Gen Stats. Both quarterbacks like to hold the ball, but the Chiefs offensive line has been good; the Texans offensive line has been a disaster for a while now.

Considering all of the advantages that Mahomes has enjoyed over Watson, it’s not crazy to think the Texans quarterback has been the more impressive quarterback. It’s not even a debate which quarterback has had a higher degree of difficulty to this point. While both have put up jaw-dropping numbers, one has done so with an average supporting cast around him, while the other walked into arguably the best situation a first-round quarterback has ever enjoyed.

Mahomes has been truly special and deserves all of the praise he has received. It’s time to accept that Watson is right there with him.

Now, this isn’t meant to be an argument that either quarterback is better than the other, but rather an argument that Watson has been under-appreciated and deserves his own spotlight. Maybe he’ll finally get that recognition after out-dueling Mahomes on Sunday. Or maybe that process had already been kickstarted now that fans are starting to appreciate Watson’s football intelligence after his breakdowns of the Panthers’ and Falcons’ defensive schemes went viral this month.

Watson wasn’t just stunting on a beat writer who isn’t paid to study defenses, either. When you watch him on tape, you can actually see him processing that information and using it to beat the defense.

Let’s take a look at a few examples from the Falcons game. First, here’s Watson’s breakdown of Atlanta’s defense…

Watson mentions the Falcons played a diamond front (meaning they had five players on the line, one across from each offensive lineman), and, behind that front, they played a lot of Tampa-2, a two-deep zone coverage made famous by Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin in Tampa Bay. That’s exactly what Atlanta is doing on this snap…

It doesn’t take Watson long to realize it. With the middle linebacker occupied by the tight end, he instantly knows to work the route combination to his left, which puts the linebacker in a two-on-one bind.

Watson wants DeAndre Hopkins on the dig but knows he has to hold the linebacker in order to keep the throwing window open. After a quick glance to his left freezes the linebacker, Watson throws Hopkins open with an anticipatory throw.

Later in the presser, he mentions how Atlanta was playing “0 Rat” in the red zone. As Watson explains, in this coverage, the Falcons have no safety deep with man-to-man across the board and extra defender(s) helping out underneath.

Watson understands where the Falcons have the extra help, picks out the best matchup before the snap and fires a perfect pass into a tight window for a touchdown.

Finally, Watson mentions how Atlanta was bringing pressure and forcing him to get the ball out of his hand quickly. That’s what happens on this touchdown throw…

Watson recognizes the blitzes and makes sure his offensive line is in the right protection to pick it up. Now he just needs to pick out his best matchup and make the throw with pressure bearing down on him.

With tablets feeding the sidelines all-22 shots of every snap and coaches in the booth tracking what the defense is doing, any NFL quarterback is capable of breaking down the coverages he saw during a postgame presser. But not many are capable of seeing and diagnosing those coverages in the heat of a game, instantly knowing how to beat them and then going out and executing. Watson is one of them, which, along with his prodigious physical gifts, has allowed him to put up numbers we’ve never seen a quarterback his age produce.

At 23, Watson will only continue to get better in these areas, which should terrify defensive coaches around the league. The Texans star is already one of the best playmakers at his position; as he continues to find the right balance between being a playmaker and being more of a distributor, it’s going be harder to keep him out of the “elite” discussion. And if we’re already including Mahomes in that discussion, then maybe it’s past time we throw Watson in there with him.