One of these 4 NFL teams will win the Super Bowl

You know the Patriots are on the list, but who joins them?

We may be only six weeks into the 2019 NFL season, but a small group of championship contenders has already started to separate itself from the rest of the league.

The Patriots start every season in that upper echelon, but they typically have more than a handful of teams capable of challenging them for the title of Super Bowl favorites. That’s not really the case this season. I put together this “One of these teams will win the Super Bowl” list at this point every year, and it typically features around six or seven teams. This year, I’ve limited it to four teams that I think have a legitimate shot at winning it all.

Let’s take a look at that group before explaining why some other “contenders” were kept off the list.

The real contenders

1. New England Patriots

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I feel like I’d be wasting my time explaining why I’m including the Patriots on this list. As long as this team employs Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, it’s not only a threat to win the Super Bowl, but it should also be considered the favorite to do so.

While I am worried about how the offense has looked so far this season, it feels like we do this every season: We worry about the lack of big plays and how old Brady looks out there, but then Josh McDaniels and Brady always figure it out before the postseason and carry the team to another Super Bowl.

Now they have a little more time to figure things out thanks to a defense that is giving up a ridiculous 8.0 points per game. I don’t care who the Patriots have played, that’s still impressive in this era. I ranked this defense as the best in the NFL headed into the season, and it has still managed to exceed my expectations. Just wait until the playoffs when Belichick is actually compelled to gameplan. This team may not give up a point.

I’m sure I could dig up some stats that better explain why New England is good at football, but we’ve been doing this for 20 years now. You get the idea.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

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The Chiefs haven’t won a game since I suggested they were a better football team than the Patriots. I’m not backing down from that after two consecutive losses. We still have yet to see this offense hit its final form with a healthy Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. The offensive line has been banged up and Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a balky ankle. Not much has gone right for the offense, but it still ranked second in DVOA going into Week 6.

The offense will be better. The defense is already better than it was in 2018. At least against the pass, which is really the only thing that matters. A lot has been made about the Chiefs’ lack of possession these past two weeks, and the blame has been put on the team’s run defense. But time of possession has had little to do with these losses: Kansas City has had 19 offensive drives over the past two weeks. That’s an average of 9.5 per game. The team was averaging around 10 drives per game heading into the Colts loss. The problem has been the offensive production on those drives. Kansas City is averaging 1.95 points per drive over the last two games. From Weeks 1 through 4, it was averaging 3.12 points per drive.

So, yeah, the Chiefs run defense has been bad, but a bad run game is easy to overcome in today’s pass-happy NFL. What’s been lost in all of this is the strides the pass defense has made in 2019. Heading into the Texans loss, the Chiefs defense ranked eighth in passing DVOA. I don’t know how sustainable that is, but if this unit can be just average against the pass, that’s all the support this world-conquering offense (when healthy) needs to go on a run to the Super Bowl.

3. New Orleans Saints

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Cue the Michael Scott “It’s happening” GIF. The New Orleans Saints have a defense. A good defense! A good defense that is capable of carrying whatever is left of Teddy Bridgewater at this point to a 4-0 record as a starter.

Because the Saints defense needed two weeks to remember how to play football — which has become an annual tradition under Dennis Allen — the numbers don’t really explain how well this unit is playing at the moment. It is evident on tape, however. The defensive line, led by Cam Jordan, grows stronger by the week. The secondary is back to playing at a high level with Marcus Lattimore looking more like the lockdown corner we saw during his rookie campaign. We’re just two weeks removed from him holding Bucs WR Mike Evans to zero catches. And holding it down in the middle is Demario Davis, one of the league’s most under-appreciated linebackers.

But this is New Orleans we’re talking about. The offense is the star of this show, and there’s no reason to believe that will change once Drew Brees returns from a thumb injury. We’re only a few weeks away from that happening, by the way. With its captain out, the Saints offense is sitting at a mediocre 14th in offensive DVOA. Alvin Kamara has been good, but his ceiling is so much higher. The same can be said for Michael Thomas. As much as it pains me to say, Bridgewater is to blame for the underachieving offense. Outside of the Buccaneers game, when he was genuinely good, everyone’s favorite quarterback has been genuinely bad. In almost all facets of the game. Bridgewater is not seeing the field well and, even when he has made the right reads, his accuracy has let him down.

Do you know who’s pretty good at reading the field and throwing accurately?

4. San Francisco 49ers

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You can play the “Ain’t Played Nobody” card all you want, but I’ve seen enough from this 49ers team to be convinced. I had already seen enough BEFORE their demolition of the Rams, but seeing this defense completely handcuff one of the league’s most talented offenses for a full 60-minute game sealed it: This is the best team in the NFC … for now.

It starts with the defense, which has actually outperformed the Patriots defense I heaped praise upon earlier in this article. Per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, San Francisco was home to the NFL’s best pass defense, and that was before it held Jared Goff to a QBR of 1.1 (out of 100). Anyone who tuned into the Browns game on Monday night knows just how good the pass rush is with Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford pummeling quarterbacks, but it’s the secondary that has caught my attention this season. Whether it’s Richard Sherman, Jimmy Ward or even the undrafted Emmanuel Moseley, who is filling in for an injured Ahkello Witherspoon, every member of the secondary is making plays. In the middle, linebackers Fred Warner and Kwon Alexander are all over the field. Both guys have sideline-to-sideline range and can even do some damage as an extra pass rusher. There is a lot of talent on this defense, but coordinator Robert Saleh has done an excellent job of putting his players in a position to succeed.

I’m a little more concerned about the offense after Sunday. And by the offense, I, of course, am referring to Jimmy Garoppolo, who continues to underwhelm. There are just far too many head-scratching decisions (like his red-zone interception against the Rams, which was lofted right into the arms of Marcus Peters) and inexcusable misses (like his overthrown pass to a wide-open Tevin Coleman in the end zone against the Rams). Garoppolo is 27. He’s being paid like a top quarterback. While I do think the 49ers can still make a run around a mediocre quarterback — the Rams just did that last season — they’ll need their “franchise QB” to play a lot better going forward. If he doesn’t, the 49ers front office will have to consider their options in the offseason. They can part ways with Jimmy G in the offseason while only eating around $4.2 million in dead cap. Just throwing that out there.

But even with Garoppolo struggling, the 49ers offense has produced thanks to the best play-caller in the NFL. Kyle Shanahan’s offense ranked seventh in passing DVOA and fifth in run DVOA headed into Week 6. Only one other team ranked in the top-10 in both categories. This team is balanced on both sides of the ball, and, more importantly, can pass the ball as well as it can defend the pass. That will carry them far … if the quarterback doesn’t get in the way, that is.

Teams that probably think they have a chance but actually don’t

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Minnesota Vikings

The pieces are all here, but it’s just impossible to trust Kirk Cousins behind that offensive line against a good defense. Big days against the Giants and Eagles secondaries aren’t enough to sway me.

Green Bay Packers

Raise your hand if you have any confidence in this Aaron Rodgers-Matt LaFleur partnership working out. Put your hand down, Matt LaFleur. The defense, which got off to such a great start, is starting to show cracks.

Seattle Seahawks

I’m obligated to include the Seahawks here because Russell Wilson is playing at such a high level, but Seattle is still asking too much of its quarterback. The offense’s run-first philosophy nearly led to a loss against an inferior Cleveland team. The defense is bad and Pete Carroll doesn’t seem to realize it based on some of the decisions he makes.

Philadelphia Eagles

I’m not sure Philly could cover a toddler right now and the offense has just been “Hey, Carson, please do something.” I’m not ruling out a late-season surge by the Eagles, but I’m skeptical this team ever fully puts it together.

Houston Texans

Look, I love Deshaun Watson, but I don’t know if he’s good enough to overcome what Bill Belichick would have cooked up for that offensive line. Houston isn’t getting past the Patriots. Now if Kansas City does that dirty work for them…

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore’s defense can’t get a pass rush and the secondary has been, well, not good. Lamar Jackson can only carry this team so far.

Buffalo Bills

The defense is so good, but this team is giving me 2017 Jaguars vibes. I just don’t see how this team overcomes Josh Allen for three consecutive playoff games.

DALLAS Cowboys

LOL. Who gave Jerry Jones the keyboard?