Why there's no need to worry about the Chiefs offense after loss to the Colts

If NFL defenses think they've found a blueprint for stopping the Chiefs offense, they're in for a letdown.

The Chiefs are going to be fine. I suppose when you’re used to watching this offense put up 30 points a game every week, a game in which Patrick Mahomes and the NFL’s most dangerous offense mustered only 13 can be a bit jarring, but there is no need to worry.

Sunday night’s loss was ugly, for sure, and it marked a second consecutive week where Mahomes looked uncomfortable. But it’s important to remember that the Chiefs offense we’ve seen over the last two weeks won’t resemble the one we’ll see down the stretch when Andy Reid has a full complement of skill players at his disposal. That includes receiver Tyreek Hill, one of the most important players on the roster.

These last two weeks against the Lions and Chiefs proved just how important Hill is to this offense, as those defenses were able to play man-to-man coverage across the board without fear of being burned downfield. Sammy Watkins leaving Sunday night’s game with an injury only emboldened the Colts, who play zone coverage more than any defense in the league.

It’s hard to pin the Chiefs’ first loss of the season on any one player or position group. Maybe Andy Reid deserves the most blame for not having a better plan for defeating man coverage, but it’s hard to blame him for not spending a lot of time on that this week with the Indy defense coming to town. There are only so many things a coaching staff can focus on, and there wasn’t a lot of evidence suggesting that man coverage should have been one of them given the Colts’ defensive tendencies under coordinator Matt Eberflus.

The defense has also caught some heat on Chiefs Twitter after the Colts dominated the time of possession game, but this was one of the best performances we’ve seen from this unit in a while and it’s not like Kansas City’s offense didn’t get enough opportunities.

The problem wasn’t that the Chiefs offense couldn’t get on the field. The problem was the Chiefs offense struggling to stay on the field. This was well below the high standard set by the team…

As good as Mahomes has been early in his career, he’s had it pretty easy early on his career. He’s playing behind a good line (that didn’t play well on Sunday night), with a deep stable of play-makers and the best play-designer in the league. Up until Week 5, that combination of factors provided Mahomes with a cushy life in the pocket. Wide-open throws from clean pockets were not hard to come by.

Well, thanks to the Colts’ sticky man coverage, he did not get a lot of those on Sunday night. According to Next Gen Stats, 17.9% of his attempts against the Colts were thrown into a tight window, which is defined as a throw to a receiver with less than a yard of separation. That’s a season-high number. Coming into the week, Mahomes had thrown fewer than 10% of his attempts into a tight window.

Playing a lot of man-to-man coverage could be considered a blueprint for slowing down this Chiefs offense, but how many teams actually have the guys to do it snap after snap? Especially when the offense is at full strength? The Colts didn’t have to worry about covering Hill or Watkins and still had some trouble containing Travis Kelce. The Lions didn’t have to worry about Hill and still gave up a number of big plays through the air. The Patriots were the one team that had some success against this offense at full strength but they had to double Hill for most of the game. And, oh yeah, they still gave up 31 points.

I wouldn’t draw any conclusions from this two-week stretch. We still haven’t seen a defense match up with a healthy Chiefs offense (at least this version of it) for a full 60 minutes and it’s unlikely we ever will.