Predicting which of college football's 18 undefeated teams will lose in Week 6

A complete breakdown of the remaining undefeated teams in 2019 ahead of Week 6.

Nearing the halfway point in the 2019 college football regular season, there are 18 undefeated FBS teams going into Week 6.

Like last week, the SEC and Big Ten are tied with five unbeaten teams each, while the ACC, Big 12 and American Athletic Conference have two, and the Sun Belt and Mountain West both have one. We lost five teams in Week 5 — but correctly predicted the outcome for 20 of the 23 teams (sorry for picking against you, Penn State and Baylor) — and we’ll see that number shrink again after this weekend.

Once again, we have two teams on this list playing each other with Auburn and Florida, so we are, in fact, guaranteed to see at least one team lose its undefeated record. The four teams with a bye this week, Alabama, Clemson, Appalachian State and Wake Forest, will obviously be back next week, but what about the rest?

Here’s what we predict for the undefeated teams this weekend based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, the AP and Coaches polls and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections. (All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

No. 1/1 Alabama Crimson Tide 5-0

Wins: Duke, New Mexico State, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Ole Miss
Chance of winning out: 25.2 percent
Week 6 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes (duh)

Alabama is looking good and like it should have no problem returning to the SEC championship game and eventually the College Football Playoff. It has the No. 2 offense in the nation led by Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa, and it’s beating teams by an average of 37 points. Now, the Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t super special at 60th in yards allowed (1,627) — although, they’re 13th in points against (14.8) — but maybe that’s something to work on during the bye. Also it doesn’t really matter when you’re averaging 51.8 points a game. Alabama’s next game is against No. 25/21 Texas A&M, its first ranked opponent, on October 12.

No. 2/2 Clemson Tigers 5-0

Wins: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, North Carolina
Chance of winning out: 59.5 percent
Week 6 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes (duh)

No one — absolutely no one — needs a bye week right now more than the defending national champs. Clemson barely remained undefeated last weekend but survived with a 21-20 win over North Carolina. The Tigers don’t have the most difficult schedule ahead of them, so they should be fine staying undefeated. But after last week, we’re questioning that a bit. Their next game is against Florida State on October 12.

No. 3/3 Georgia Bulldogs 4-0

Wins: Vanderbilt, Murray State, Arkansas State, Notre Dame
Chance of winning out: 7.3 percent
Week 6 game: Tennessee (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

The Bulldogs don’t have a very high chance of finishing the season undefeated, but if they aren’t still undefeated after Week 6, that will easily be the biggest shocker here. Tennessee is, uhh, not great this year, so it’s not going to be the team to knock them off. Plus, not only are they coming off a bye, but their No. 6 defense is practically impenetrable and surely a gigantic reason why they’re 24.5-point favorites at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.

No. 4/5 Ohio State Buckeyes 5-0

Wins: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Ohio), Nebraska
Chance of winning out: 37.2 percent
Week 6 game: Michigan State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

Ohio State is looking like the most balanced team in college football right now. Heisman trophy candidate Justin Fields is a lethal combination with running back J.K. Dobbins, leading the Buckeyes’ top-5 offense. And on the other side, their defense is pretty powerful too, allowing them to win by an average margin of 43.8 points this season. There’s a chance Michigan State’s offense never sees the end zone in this one, but the Spartans’ defense might be the only thing that keeps this game interesting. Michigan State is 14th nationally in points against (15.0), so this will be, by far, the Buckeyes’ biggest offensive test. However, with the way both teams are playing right now, there’s no upset to see here. Ohio State is a 20-point favorite in Columbus.

No. 5/6 LSU Tigers 4-0

Wins: Georgia Southern, Texas, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt
Chance of winning out: 3.2 percent
Week 6 game: Utah State (Noon ET, SECN)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

LSU is looking like the kind of team that could make a strong playoff push — it probably needs to upset Alabama down the road — so it’s pretty safe to say Utah State isn’t going to stop Heisman contender Joe Burrow and this powerful offense that leads the country with an average of 57.8 points per game. Coming off a bye, the Tigers are rested and 27.5-point favorites at home against the Aggies. Also, it’s maybe worth noting that they dropped a spot in both polls after their bye because Ohio State moved up.

No. 6/4 Oklahoma Sooners 4-0

Wins: Houston, South Dakota, UCLA, Texas Tech
Chance of winning out: 28.6 percent
Week 6 game: Kansas (Noon ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

This is going to be so ugly. The Jayhawks are going to get rocked at home because Jalen Hurts continues to prove he and the Sooners offense can do whatever they want, regardless of opponent. The fewest number of points Oklahoma has scored this season is 48 (against UCLA), and it’s sixth nationally with 2,674 total yards and second in points per game (55.5). There’s just no way Kansas is going to be the team to slow it down. Among undefeated teams, the Sooners have the third-best chance to win out after Week 5 behind Clemson and Ohio State, and they’re 32-point favorites over Kansas — but they could end up scoring 100.

No. 7/7 Auburn Tigers 5-0

Wins: Oregon, Tulane, Kent State, Texas A&M, Mississippi State
Chance of winning out: 1.7 percent
Week 6 game: Florida (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

Like LSU, these other SEC Tigers could make a playoff push, but the road ahead is filled with tough games against LSU, Alabama and Georgia — although Auburn’s chance of winning out is up from .6 percent last week. Between that and Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix getting a solid confidence boost every week — especially while Florida is relying on backup passer Kyle Trask — we’re giving the Tigers the slight edge here. This game should be very close, maybe coming down to the last play, and it’s the only one on this list we’re truly going back and forth about. One of these two undefeated teams has to lose, and we’re thinking Auburn keeps its perfect record alive as 2.5-point favorites in Gainsville.

No.8/9 Wisconsin 4-0

Wins: South Florida, Central Michigan, Michigan, Northwestern
Chance of winning out: 1.3 percent
Week 6 game: Kent State (Noon ET, ESPNU)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

The Badgers are a solid team that need to bounce back after a close 24-15 win against Northwestern last week. Unfortunately for Kent State, it’s going to take the brunt of any frustrations they have still lingering from their Week 5 struggles. Led by outside Heisman contender running back Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin’s offense is No. 12 in points against (42.3), while its defense is giving up a nationwide low of just 7.3 points per game. All of which explain why the Badgers are 35.5-point favorites in Madison.

No. 10/8 Florida Gators 5-0

Wins: Miami, Tennessee-Martin, Kentucky, Tennessee, Towson
Chance of winning out: 0.3 percent
Week 6 game: (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Undefeated after Week 6: No

See above.

No. 12/11 Penn State Nittany Lions 4-0

Wins: Idaho, Buffalo, Pitt, Maryland
Chance of winning out: 3.1 percent
Week 6 game: Purdue (Noon ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

After being super wrong in picking against Penn State last week, we’re not about to make that mistake again. OK, so the Nittany Lions had one tough win against Pitt, but last week, they destroyed a Maryland team we overestimated quite a bit. And now, we have a feeling Purdue is about to suffer the same fate. Penn State is a 28.5-point favorite in Happy Valley with a team that’s fifth nationally in points per game (50.0) and second in points against (7.5).

No. 14/14 Iowa Hawkeyes 4-0

Wins: Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, Iowa State, Middle Tennessee
Chance of winning out: 0.2 percent
Week 6 game: Michigan (Noon ET, FOX)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

On paper, Michigan might have the slight advantage here, especially since the teams share a recent opponent in Rutgers, which they both shut out (but Michigan scored 52 and Iowa 30). However, that’s not a great measuring stick, and the Wolverines have struggled any time they’ve been challenged this season, whether they won or not. Iowa has the better defense — it’s No. 3 in points against (8.5) and No. 5 in yards allowed (1,004) — and that’s not great for a Michigan offense that looks confused against teams not named Rutgers. We’re picking an upset here with the slight 3.5-point underdogs.

No. 16/15 Boise State Broncos 4-0

Wins: Florida State, Marshall, Portland State, Air Force
Chance of winning out: 10.0 percent
Week 6 game: UNLV (10:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN)
Undefeated after Week : Yes

Broncos quarterback Hank Bachmeier is young but better than a lot — maybe most? — true freshmen out there. His completion percentage is a little low (63.5), but he’s averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. Plus, Boise State’s No. 19 defense is holding things down on that side anyway, and UNLV is not great. Staying undefeated shouldn’t be much of an issue here, especially as a 22-point favorite.

Appalachian State Mountaineers 4-0

Wins: East Tennessee State, Charlotte, North Carolina, Coastal Carolina
Chance of winning out: 1.5 percent
Week 6 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes (duh)

The Mountaineers are off this week, which works out well because their next game is Wednesday, October 9 against Louisiana. But some evergreen advice for when they do play: Don’t pick against them unless you really, really have to.

Baylor Bears 4-0

Wins: Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, Rice, Iowa State
Chance of winning out: 0.0 percent
Week 6 game: Kansas State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Undefeated after Week 6: No

We were wrong last week when we predicted Baylor’s undefeated season would end, but that’s not stopping us from saying it again. Yes, the Wildcats dropped off this list after their loss to Oklahoma State in Week 5, but we’re picking them to bounce back at home as slight 1.5-point favorites. Offensively, Baylor is the more balanced team, but Kansas State relies more heavily on its run game, which the Bears, despite their previous success against the run, could have a little trouble with. Also, after barely beating Iowa State in last week, Baylor is lucky to still be on this list.

Memphis Tigers 4-0

Wins: Ole Miss, Southern, South Alabama, Navy
Chance of winning out: 0.7 percent
Week 6 game: UL Monroe (3:45 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

Memphis remains a solid team out of the American Athletic Conference, and as it comes off a 35-23 win against Navy last week — which knocked the Midshipmen off the undefeated list — it’s a lot more prepared for the Warhawks than they are for it with UL Monroe’s wins being against only South Alabama and Grambling so far this season. The Tigers are 14.5-point favorites going into Saturday’s road game.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 4-0

Wins: South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Purdue
Chance of winning out: 0.0 percent
Week 6 game: Illinois (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

Minnesota is quietly looking pretty good this season and is 4-0 for the first time since 2013. And with the way their schedule lined up this year, they might be able to stay undefeated for a while — unlike coach P.J. Fleck’s first two seasons when the team won its first three games only to go onto three- and four-game losing streaks immediately after. Following Illinois this week — the Golden Gophers are 14-point favorites — they play Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland before running into a ranked opponent.

SMU Mustangs 5-0

Wins: Arkansas State, North Texas, Texas State, TCU, South Florida
Chance of winning out: 4.1 percent
Week 6 game: Tulsa (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes

SMU’s offense is statistically one of the best in the country right now. It’s ranked ninth in total yards (2,553) and points per game (44.4), 13th in yards per game (511) and 16th in total rushing yards (1,112). The Mustangs are 13-point favorites against Tulsa, and we’re not picking against that. They’ll be back on this list next week.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5-0

Wins: Utah State, Rice, North Carolina, Elon
Chance of winning out: 0.1 percent
Week 6 game: Bye
Undefeated after Week 6: Yes (duh)

The Demon Deacons are playing well so far this season, but they’re off this week. Their next game is against Louisville on October 12.