Duke Johnson trade analysis: Is Bill O'Brien capable of unlocking his potential?

After giving up a draft pick for Duke Johnson, Texans coach Bill O'Brien better use him correctly.

Let’s get one thing out of the way: The Texans gave up way too much for RB Duke Johnson, who had demanded a trade and probably wouldn’t have seen the field too often when Kareem Hunt returned to the Browns’ active roster. Giving up a Day 2 pick — it’s currently a fourth-rounder but could turn into a third based on how Johnson fares in Houston — for a disgruntled running back isn’t the smartest use of assets.

But Bill O’Brien The Interim GM seems to have a lot of faith in Bill O’Brien The Coach, and maybe he believes the Texans will do what the Browns never could and finally unlock Johnson’s potential as a true dual-threat running back.

Johnson is mostly known as a receiving back, but when he’s gotten his opportunities to run the ball, he’s been productive. Since 2016, he’s averaged 4.7 yards per carry. In 2017, he posted a rushing DVOA of 15.7%. Kareem Hunt, who led the league in rushing yards, finished with a DVOA of 11.9% that season. In 2018, his rushing DVOA dropped to 7.2%, which was still higher than that of Ezekiel Elliott. Johnson can run the football.

Of course, it’s Johnson’s receiving skills that make him such an intriguing player. He’s not your typical receiving back who just catches swing passes out of the backfield, either. Since 2017, Alvin Kamara is the only running back who has caught more pass from the slot or out wide. Johnson averaged 0.15 Expected Points Added on targets aimed more than five yards downfield. Again, only Kamara was better among running backs.

It’s easy to see why O’Brien was willing to give up a valuable draft pick for a receiving threat at the running back position. The Texans finished dead last in targets to running backs in 2018, so Johnson will be adding an element this offense has been missing.

Now, it’s fair to wonder if O’Brien is a coach capable of getting the most out of Johnson. He isn’t known for being the most creative play-designer, but there is one reason for hope: Since 2015, the Texans have thrown the 12th most passes to running backs lined up out wide or in the slot, and they’ve never had a talent like Johnson. Reserve back Tyler Ervin was the main beneficiary of those targets in the past, and he wasn’t just running decoy routes, as most running backs do when lined out wide.

Johnson is a more talented receiver. He’s a smooth route-runner and natural pass catcher. He’s also dangerous in the open field.

Via Pro Football Focus:

Johnson’s career receiving grade (90.9) ranks fifth among the 44 running backs with at least 100 targets dating back to 2015. He also ranks second in forced missed tackles per reception (0.338), seventh in yards per route run (1.73) and fourth in percentage of receptions resulting in a first down or touchdown (44.0%) among players on the list.

If Johnson focused on the position full time, he could probably make it as a starting slot receiver. He’s that talented as a receiver who still only strengthen an already strong group of Texans receivers, which includes All-pro DeAndre Hopkins and speedster Will Fuller.

Houston’s offensive line remains a gigantic question mark but the team has the pass catchers and quarterback to produce one of the league’s best offenses. If O’Brien can figure out how to use Johnson while also protecting Deshaun Watson, the Texans will be a factor in the AFC race. If not, another coach should be brought in to give it a crack. There’s too much talent here for O’Brien to fail.