4 reasons you shouldn't draft Patrick Mahomes in fantasy football
Don't do it.
You may be reading that headline above and scratching your head.
Why would I be telling you not to draft Patrick Mahomes, the breakout Kansas City Chiefs star who led fantasy football squads everywhere to a championship thanks to a bonkers season in which he threw for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, ran for 272 yards and two more scores on the ground?
That made him the top scorer in all of fantasy — per ESPN, he totaled 417 points for owners, a full 62 more than the No. 2 player Matt Ryan.
But he’s also a quarterback. And I’ve spent the last couple of years trying to tell you not to draft QBs high in fantasy because of their depth. In 2018, I gave you the guide to the round you should start thinking about a QB.
So let’s get into it with Mahomes, who is clearly the first quarterback off the board this year.
1. He’s going way too high
Per Fantasy Pros, he’s going 19th overall on average. That’s right: You’ll have to spend a second-round pick to get Mahomes. The second QB — Andrew Luck — has an ADP of 48.
Fantasy drafting is all about value. And as I’ve written, you’re getting exactly zero value by taking a quarterback that high because the position is so deep. You’re much better served taking a running back there because there’s more uncertainty at that position, and there are arguments to be made that you could take a top tight end like Travis Kelce around there for the same reasons.
Also …
2. There’s a possibility of regression
Mahomes could still have a 40-touchdown season with all that yardage since his receiving core of Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson is still intact, plus there’s buzz about rookie Mecole Hardman.
But read this:
Again: He could still finish the year as the No. 1 QB in fantasy. But what if the difference between him and other quarterbacks isn’t as large as it was last year? Which leads us to …
3. The difference between quarterbacks is tiny
Remember that number I threw out there about Mahomes outscoring Ryan by 62 points? If you subtract that same number from the Falcons QB’s total, you get to just below Russell Wilson’s points from last season. And Wilson was the No. 9 scoring quarterback in 2018.
Translation: You’re not getting much difference between the No. 2 and No. 9 quarterbacks. Like I said, QB is SO DEEP, you don’t need to reach for one, especially for one who is going too high.
4. There are other quarterbacks available late who could finish around the top 10
Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL last season, but he’s in Kyle Shanahan’s offense with a rising receiver corps. And he’s going 139th overall on average! He’s QB20 in drafts!
The perpetually underrated Philip Rivers is QB15, yet he finished 11th in scoring last season.
Jameis Winston now plays for Bruce Arians and is QB13.
Kyler Murray could break out in Year 1 under Kliff Kingsbury and he’s QB12 in drafts.
See? VALUE. Value Value Value Value. Remember that when you see Mahomes’ name on the board early on. Unless he drops somewhere much lower (and believe me, he won’t), skip drafting him entirely and let someone else make the mistake of taking him.