Bitcoin could see a wave of forced selling as miners face the reality of lower rewards post-halving, research firm says

"If miners were forced to sell even a fraction of their holdings over the coming month this would have a negative impact on markets," Kaiki Research wrote.

• Bitcoin's halving in April could force crypto miners to sell some tokens, Kaiko Research reported.
• The event has left miners with fewer rewards while operating costs remain high.
• These firms haven't yet had to tap their bitcoin hoards thanks to high transaction fees, but that could change.

Markets have long considered bitcoin's recent halving as a major price bolster, but it could bring a wave of selling from one corner of the sector, according to Kaiko Research.

The April halving is a pre-coded event in which the amount of bitcoin rewarded to crypto miners is slashed in half. Last month's halving was the fourth in 12 years and lowered daily token production from 900 to 450, Bloomberg reported.

While this dramatic decrease in supply can push up the token's price, it also adds sizable costs to miner operations. 

Mining firms are only awarded bitcoin when they successfully complete a blockchain transaction, which is a resource-intensive process — with less bitcoin received to cover costs, halving tends to be a selling event for miners, Kaiko wrote.

So far, this hasn't happened, as firms have instead depended on high transaction fees for funding — this is bitcoin given to miners for their service in confirming transactions. According to Bloomberg, fees jumped amid a burst of meme-coin creation after the halving event. 

In one example, transaction fees comprised 16% of bitcoin received by Marathon Digital in April, compared to 4.5% in March, Kaiko said, adding that "the recent decline in fees could lead to selling pressure from miners."

Miners are often known for hoarding bitcoin troves without selling, which analysts have previously pointed out as another price-boosting supply constraint.

"For instance, Marathon Digital holds 17,631 BTC worth just over $1.1 billion, while Riot Platforms hold another 8,872 BTC worth over $500 million," Kaiko wrote. "If miners were forced to sell even a fraction of their holdings over the coming month this would have a negative impact on markets.

While Kaiko did not outline how this could impact bitcoin's price, analyst Peter Brandt has separately argued that bitcoin could drop to the mid-$30,000 in the post-halving environment.