Alexander Rahr: "Constructive dialogue with Moscow is an unexpected surprise from Baerbock

МОСКВА, 20 января 2022, Институт РУССТРАТ.   The first visit of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to Russia began with Ukraine. On the way to Moscow, she made a stop in Kiev, where she had a conversation with her colleague Dmitry Kuleba. In Moscow, the German Foreign Minister met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and made an important symbolic visit - laid flowers at the grave of the Unknown Soldier in the Alexander Garden. Even before the trip, Baerbock formulated the task of her visit as follows: Berlin “wants meaningful and stable relations with the Russian Federation”, but “there is a long list of conflict issues to be discussed”. The RUSSTRAT Institute talked with Alexander Rahr, a well-known German expert on European politics, about the "conflict" issues in Russian-German relations, as well as about the prospects for their resolution in the context of this visit. From what position, in your opinion, did Ms. Baerbock prefer to conduct these negotiations? As a supporter of the "liberal rhetoric" of today's European politicians? Or did she still follow the path of finding compromises with Russia, as did the German chancellors, starting from Willy Brandt? Alexander Rahr: Based on the rhetoric that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock used to adhere to, I was sure that she was not in the mood for possible cooperation between Moscow and Berlin. She belongs to the generation of European politicians who believe that relations with Russia need to be built quite rigidly. However, the statements she made in Kiev already gave hope that the rhetoric would be constructive, not aggressive. This was confirmed by the meetings in Moscow, as well as a visit to the grave of the Unknown Soldier full of symbolic significance - Angela Merkel also did this more than once. This is generally a sign of continuity, although it is very important what Annelena Baerbock will say to the German media upon her return. You mentioned Willy Brandt. He was a wise politician who believed that without peaceful dialogue with the USSR, it is impossible to build a future not only for Germany, but for the whole of Europe. First of all, he thought about the prospects of economic development, cared about the prosperity of the national business. Unfortunately, today's European aspirations are focused not on Moscow, but on Warsaw and the Baltic states. That is, the language of ultimatums is closer to them. Berlin and Brussels do not see Russia as an economic and political partner, not realising that talking to Moscow in the language of threats will not lead to anything good and will primarily strike at business structures. Is it possible to say that there is a certain conflict of interests between German business and German politics today? Alexander Rahr: First of all, it is necessary to understand that today's German business does not have "its own face". If at the time of Willy Brandt, the German economy was represented by specific individuals who were respected in society and had their own views on political processes, then today's strategy of most German and European companies is determined by shareholder meetings focused on recommendations from overseas. That is, with rare exceptions, our business simply does not have its own opinion. In general, the business community is afraid of sanctions and is ready to abandon profitable cooperation with Russia in favour of the interests of the United States. To what extent, in your opinion, is the current energy crisis and the conflict over the operation of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines related to the general policy of the European Union towards Russia? Alexander Rahr: Here it is necessary to understand that the current energy crisis is, first of all, an economic conflict, which they want to give political meaning to. The conflict is based on the difference in economic approaches. Russia insists on a contractual system of payment for fuel, where deadlines, volumes and prices are stipulated. Payment is made in advance and allows Russian suppliers to invest in gas production and delivery infrastructure. The European Union insists on creating a kind of common market, I would call it a "bazaar", where gas and petroleum products are supplied, and only then the consumer determines whether to buy fuel or not, and at what prices. Naturally, the Russian side is unlikely to be satisfied with such conditions. A number of experts believe that Europeans have overestimated the possibilities of alternative energy sources - we are talking about wind, solar, hydropower, etc. To date, they are clearly not enough. Therefore, the result of attempts to develop in the direction of the so-called "green energy" was a sharp increase in gas prices, which, contrary to optimistic forecasts, continues. It would seem that there is a purely economic task that can be solved by mutually beneficial negotiations with Moscow. However, the European Union decided to give the problem a purely political character. Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 are a definite symbol of productive cooperation between Europe and Russia. Today, this symbol is being destroyed by all means. In my opinion, the thesis that by buying Russian fuel, we strengthen the Kremlin is completely devoid of any logic. Russian fuel on reasonable, agreed terms is, first of all, a peaceful future for the entire European continent. The European Commission calls for the development of nuclear and carbon-based energy components – what consequences will this have for Germany? Alexander Rahr: The most deplorable ones. Coal and nuclear power plants are primarily beneficial to Poland and France. And Germany, as already mentioned, is focused on the development of "green energy". Today it is a very fashionable trend, they are trying to convince the German people of its prospects. And the political elite is trying to use it in the confrontation with Russia. In my opinion, this is a mistake that in the near future may lead to the saddest consequences for Germany. Returning to the topic of Ms. Baerbock's visit to Moscow... Following her, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due to pay an official visit to Russia. It so happened that usually Mr. Chancellor makes adjustments to the statements of his Foreign Minister. Do you think the distribution of roles will be preserved in this case? Alexander Rahr: It is necessary to understand that Ms. Baerbok is the leader of the Greens. And this is a certain ideology based on a tough defence of liberal values. Echoes of this were heard in Moscow, they will continue to be heard on all hot topics – Ukraine, human rights, revision of the energy strategy. Let me remind you that before her visit to Russia, the head of the German Foreign Ministry visited a number of European countries, where she allowed herself quite emotional statements. Subsequently, the German Chancellor had to correct the words of his subordinate. I cannot rule out that following the results of the Moscow talks, Baerbock will make such comments to the German media that Mr. Scholz will again have to carry out "work on mistakes”. So far, this has not happened. As for the German Chancellor, he adheres to pragmatic positions and prefers the search for compromise solutions to open confrontation, which in principle has traditionally been characteristic of the German policy of relations with Russia. Unfortunately, such a balanced position does not find support in the German media today, most of which are on the side of the "greens". Many politicians also prefer to seek approval in Washington and Brussels. Nevertheless, I very much hope that the upcoming meeting between Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin will be held in a positive way, and the parties will find an opportunity to continue the dialogue and build mutually beneficial relations between the two countries.   The interview was conducted by Madina Shavlokhova, chief editor of the RUSSTRAT website