The Donald Trump Veepstakes: A Cheat Sheet
For decades, a few antiquated bon mots about the vice presidency have held sway in discussions about running mates. For example, there’s Teddy Roosevelt’s declaration, “I would a great deal rather be anything, say professor of history, than vice president.” Even better was John Nance Garner’s verdict that the office he held under FDR was “not worth a bucket of warm piss.” Those quips really hardly apply anymore; they’re as archaic as their authors. These days the Naval Observatory is a nice place to land. You could end up amassing unprecedented power and a man-sized safe, like Dick Cheney. You could end up with impressive power and become an aviator-clad folk hero, like Joe Biden.
Or maybe not. Will anyone want to be the running mate to presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump? There are the character risks in cozying up to a man who’s liable to make a racist comment or accuse a rival’s father of being involved in the Kennedy assassination. There are the career risks of becoming associated with a man who much of the Republican Party still doesn’t like. And there are the organizational risks to signing on as No. 2 to a man who’s famously a go-it-alone maverick.
Will serious policymakers really risk all that? Ha! Of course they will. Plenty of major figures have said no, but plenty remain open to it. As another politician of yore, Sam Rayburn, pointed out, “Well, there is always the thought in a fellow's mind that he might get to be president.” At this stage in the campaign, it’s still customary for possible picks to insist they’re not interested. Don’t believe it quite yet.
Just who Trump might choose, though, is a different matter. He has said he’ll pick a politician to balance his own outsider status. Trump has also said that Ben Carson, his former rival, will help lead up the process to pick a running mate. Things didn’t get off to a great start. Carson told The Wall Street Journal that Trump might consider an independent or a Democrat; Trump promptly said he’d only pick a Republican. As the Journal notes, the convention delegates will also have to ratify Trump’s choice, adding intrigue.
Who’s on the list? Here’s a cheat sheet of some of the names being floated—either by Trump and his aides; or by the candidates or their supporters themselves; or perhaps just being murmured by what Russell Baker memorably called “the Great Mentioner.” Forecasting who a presidential nominee will pick as a running mate is a famously foolish errand, but we’ll keep this list updated as the situation develops, right up to Trump’s announcement, which he says will come at the Republican National Convention in July.
Newt Gingrich
Who is he? The speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999, Gingrich ran unsuccessfully for president in 2012.
The scuttlebutt: Gingrich is perhaps the leading contender in Beltway buzz. Though he didn’t endorse Trump during the primary, he repeatedly defended him from his critics. More recently, he wrote a fawning essay titled “What they never understood about Donald Trump” in The Washington Times.
Pros: With his long career on the Hill and in Republican circles, Gingrich would check the politics box for Trump. As an intellectual—self-styled, at least—he might offer some counterweight to impressions of Trump as a lightweight. Gingrich, unlike Roosevelt, would apparently rather be vice president than a professor of history.
Cons: While less prone than Trump to racist outbursts, Gingrich has been known to say wacky things. He has plenty of his own critics in GOP circles, and he’s got his own personal baggage—two divorces and three marriages to match Trump’s. As an aging white man, it’s unclear whether he could expand the Trump coalition. He brings little foreign-policy cred.
Ben Carson
Who is he? The famed retired neurosurgeon was one of the many GOP candidates Trump vanquished this year.
The scuttlebutt: Wait, isn’t he leading the VP search? That’s hardly an impediment—just ask Dick Cheney, who led George W. Bush’s running mate search and selected himself. Carson has generally said he’s not interested, but that hasn’t dampened speculation.
Pros: Carson is personally likable and well-liked, and he could appeal to social conservatives.
Cons: Didn’t you see the GOP primary? Where Trump is untutored and sometimes scary on policy, Carson is even less tutored, and often shaky. Given his lack if politics and policy experience, he’d do little to shore up Trump’s credentials with people who view Trump as dangerously naive about policy.
Chris Christie
Who is he? The governor of New Jersey, Christie was the first major establishment Republican to endorse Trump.
The scuttlebutt: Surely there must be some reason why Christie has been willing to endure endless mockery for standing, staring vacantly, behind Trump at campaign events. Could it be the promise of a VP slot?
Pros: Christie would bring comparative gravitas to the ticket. He’s a two-term governor and former U.S. attorney, a dynamic campaigner, and he seems to get along well with Trump.
Cons: Just what the ticket needs: Another angry dude from the Northeast with high unfavorables. Christie infuriated many fellow Republicans by backing Trump, but now that many of them are coming around, perhaps that’s not a big deal.
Sarah Palin
Who is she? The former governor of Alaska endorsed Trump in January. She was John McCain’s running mate in 2008.
The scuttlebutt: Palin is a high-profile endorser and has been an ambitious politician in the past. When Trump was asked about the prospect of running with her in January, he said: "I don't think she'd want to do it … she’s been through that.”
Pros: Trump is weak with women and still stands to convince very conservative voters that he is a true conservative. Palin might help him on both counts.
Cons: Are you younger than eight? (If so, go outside and play!) If not, did you sleep through the 2008 election? We’ve seen how this goes.
John Kasich
Who is he? The governor of Ohio, Kasich was the last remaining Republican to leave the race.
The scuttlebutt: Kasich’s critics in the party accused him of staying in the race to hurt Cruz, and thus improve his chances at the VP slot. Trump has sent mixed messages, saying that he’d be “interested in vetting John” but also suggesting he was an unlikely choice.
Pros: Kasich has deep political experience, as both a congressman and a two-term governor. And he cuts a more sober figure than Trump.
Cons: Kasich’s presidential campaign weighs against him. On the one hand, it showed he has limited appeal. On the other, he spent most of it calling for sanity and reason in the race—basically, everything Trump doesn’t stand for.
Marco Rubio
Who is he? The outgoing senator from Florida also ran against Trump.
The scuttlebutt: Some of Rubio’s delegates to the convention are pushing him as a running mate. Trump says it “could happen,” though other reports claim he’s out of the running. Also Rubio has said, “I’m not going to be anybody’s vice president.”
Pros: All the things that Rubio was supposed to bring to the presidential race, he could still bring: youth. Charisma. Hispanic roots and foreign-policy experience, both of which Trump badly needs.
Cons: Rubio hit Trump hard during the race, and he seems to be pretty burnt out on campaigning and politics in general.
Rick Perry
Who is he? The former governor of Texas ran for president unsuccessfully in 2012 and 2016.
The scuttlebutt: On May 5, Perry told CNN, “I believe in the process, and the process has said Donald Trump will be our nominee and I'm going to support him and help him and do what I can …. He is one of the most talented people who has ever run for the president I have ever seen.” On the veep question, he said, “I am going to be open to any way I can help. I am not going to say no.”
Pros: Perry doesn’t exactly have a reputation as a policy whiz, though he tried to reverse that in his second go at the presidency. He’s a steady, experienced Republican, and his Texas bravado might pair well with Trump’s New York braggadocio.
Cons: “He offers a barking carnival act that can be best described as Trumpism: a toxic mix of demagoguery, mean-spiritedness and nonsense that will lead the Republican Party to perdition if pursued. Let no one be mistaken—Donald Trump’s candidacy is a cancer on conservatism, and it must be clearly diagnosed, excised, and discarded.” —Perry on July 22, 2015
Ted Cruz
Who is he? Trump’s final serious rival for the nomination, he’s a senator from Texas.
The scuttlebutt: Trump said on May 4 that he’d consider Cruz.
Pros: Trump says he wants to unify the party, and since the final split was ultimately between Cruz and Trump, what better way to bring together two factions than in a classic fusion ticket? Cruz would bring his very conservative bonafides to the ticket.
Cons: Many leading Republicans hate Cruz as much or more than they do Trump. Also, while the two men got along well early in the campaign, Cruz unloaded on Trump—understandably—after Trump suggested Cruz’s father was involved in the JFK assassination, calling him a “pathological liar,” “utterly amoral,” a “narcissist,” and “serial philanderer.”
Rick Scott
Who is he? Florida’s governor, Scott is a former health-care executive.
The scuttlebutt: Scott endorsed Trump on March 15. He’s suggested he’s not interested in the gig. “I like my job. I worked hard to get this job. I’m going to stay in this job,” he told CNN.
Pros: He’s a two-term governor, and Florida is an important swing state
Cons: Scott is deeply unpopular in his own state, and he carries lots of baggage—particularly a $1.7 billion fine for Medicare fraud levied on the company he ran.
Rob Portman
Who is he? Portman is a senator from Ohio.
The scuttlebutt: Trump’s campaign has leaked his name as an early favorite. A spokesman said Portman is not interested: “Rob is not interested in anything but continuing to serve Ohio in the U.S. Senate.”
Pros: Portman is well-liked and has a reputation for seriousness. He might help Trump in the crucial swing state of Ohio and across the Midwest. Barry Bennett, a longtime Portman aide, is now a top aide to Trump.
Cons: Portman is in the middle of a heated Senate campaign. He’d probably be unable to run for president and run for Senate effectively without risking handing the seat to Democrat Ted Strickland.
Nikki Haley
Who is she? Haley is the governor of South Carolina.
The scuttlebutt: Trump’s campaign has named her as a top early pick, but Trump himself said, “No, not Nikki Haley, no Nikki Haley no, she wasn’t under consideration.” She herself said, “My plate is full and I am not interested in serving as vice president."
Pros: Not only is Haley a veteran governor, but as a woman, a Southerner, and a daughter of immigrants, Haley would plug lots of holes for Trump. She won positive national press by backing the push to take down the Confederate flag from the capitol grounds in Columbia.
Cons: Haley and Trump tangled ahead of the South Carolina primary, which Haley ultimately deploying the ultimate, vicious Southern insult on Trump: “Bless your heart.”
Susana Martinez
Who is she? The governor of New Mexico, Martinez is a perennial long-list candidate for the vice presidency.
The scuttlebutt: She’s another one of the early favorites leaked by the Trump campaign. “The governor has said repeatedly over the years that she isn’t interested in serving as Vice President,” her spokesman replied. “She appreciates that such attention puts New Mexico in the spotlight, but she is fully committed to serving the people of our state.”
Pros: In addition to her experience as governor, Martinez is a woman and a Hispanic, both constituencies with which Trump is very weak.
Cons: Martinez has been harshly critical of Trump. She also brings some personal baggage.
Brian Sandoval
Who is he? Sandoval is the governor of Nevada, a moderate Republican and another perennial VP possibility.
The scuttlebutt: Remember when this guy was floated as an Obama Supreme Court nominee? Good times. Sandoval’s name seems to mostly be in the mix because it always is. He endorsed Trump on May 5.
Pros: Sandoval is an experienced politician and a popular Hispanic elected official. He could potentially help Trump with Hispanics and in the West.
Cons: Sandoval has sometimes been seen as too moderate for a national GOP ticket.
Joe Scarborough
Who is he? The co-host of MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Scarborough previously served as a congressman from Florida.
The scuttlebutt: Scarborough has been one of Trump’s biggest cheerleaders in the mainstream media. When Hugh Hewitt asked him if in January he’d serve as Trump’s VP, Scarborough couldn’t bring himself to say no. He’s clearly thirsty to get back into politics—he even flirted with running for president in 2016.
Pros: Scarborough has media savvy and has had a great rapport with Trump. He’s not a professional politician these days, but he’s got the resume.
Cons: Precisely which GOP voters would line up to back a Beltway-dwelling, moderate Republican MSNBC host? Meanwhile, Scarborough has complained that Trump was genuine rather than simply pandering in his fearmongering on Muslims, and Trump fired back at him.
Mary Fallin
Who is she? Fallin is the second-term governor of Oklahoma.
The scuttlebutt: Trump backer of Andre Bauer of South Carolina floated her name in April; Trump responded that it was “great” advice. She says she is “100 percent behind him” and said in a statement, “I have not had any direct contact with Mr. Trump, but I would be very honored if I were to receive a call saying I need you to help make America great again.”
Pros: Fallin is an experience governor and a woman.
Cons: She’s not much of a proven quantity or familiar face at a national level.