Weekly polling roundup: Trump, Clinton no shoo-ins in Iowa; Sanders and Trump extending NH leads
Once again, the action this week is on the Democratic side, with the GOP side suddenly static and boring. So let’s get started with our own team:
DEMOCRATS
Compared to last week, Hillary Clinton is up 0.1 points (in other words, nothing), while Bernie Sanders is down 2.2 points. This 2.3-point net shift in Hillary’s direction is exactly the same as the 2.3-point net shift in Sanders’ direction in Iowa, as you’ll see below. Still, while the Iowa movement feels more real (when looking at the individual polling), this feels more like float.
| ipsos/Reuters | 1/16-20 | 54 | 35 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yougov/Economist | 1/15-19 | 50 | 41 |
| Monmouth U | 1/15-18 | 52 | 37 |
| Morning Consult | 1/14-17 | 54 | 30 |
| NBC/SurveyMonkey | 1/11-17 | 52 | 36 |
| Nbc/WSJ | 1/9-13 | 59 | 34 |
Some of these have Clinton up, some have Sanders up, some have it even. So unlike Iowa, where the individual polling is universally trending Sanders’ way, this disagreement among the polls suggest to me that it’s all float in the end.