Rouhani’s Real Fights Are Just Beginning
J. Matthew McInnis
Politics, Diplomacy, Middle East
The president is likely facing some very rough waters in the next few weeks and months.
As exultant as U.S. President Barack Obama was on January 16 as the nuclear deal was finally put into effect, no one was as ecstatic that day as Hassan Rouhani. The Iranian president has staked much of his political future on completing what became the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), repeatedly promising to relieve his country of nuclear sanctions and hopefully jump-start a practically moribund economy. But success in Iranian politics breeds inevitable pushback from powerful rivals and even the Supreme Leader himself, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. With huge economic challenges remaining and critical national elections in February, will Rouhani and his agenda survive?
In one sense, the earlier than expected arrival of Implementation Day is a triumph for Rouhani’s administration. The president hailed it as “a golden page” in Iran’s history. Achieving even symbolic levels of sanctions relief prior to the February 26 elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts, the body that will likely choose the next Supreme Leader, cannot but help boost public sentiment in his favor. Rouhani also continues to bask in the regime’s broad consensus around the deal and his diplomatic efforts.
However, the leadership in Tehran has maintained this consensus in part by delaying decision making on several key issues until Implementation Day, including Iran’s 2016-2017 budget and the Sixth Five-Year Development Plan. These items, along with the new Iran Petroleum Contract Model (IPC), embody the deep debates Rouhani and his allies have been having with Khamenei and other conservatives about how Iran should engage world markets and rebuild its economy. How much stake should foreign companies have in Iranian energy concerns and other industries? Which economic sectors will get the most significant reform? How will the monies from oils sales and sanctions relief be spent?
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