U.S. Security in a Proliferated World Will Require a New ICBM

Dan Goure

Nuclear Deterrence, United States

The United States will need to develop and deploy a new ICBM called the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD).

It’s really quite simple: deterrence of an attack on the United States by a hostile nation rests, ultimately, on the nuclear triad -- intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and bombers. While each leg of the triad plays a critical role in deterring aggression, there are some circumstances in which the land-based missile force could make the difference between war and peace.  For that reason, the United States  will need to develop and deploy a new ICBM, now called the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD).

It is certain that in the not-too-distant future the United States will face both more and larger nuclear threats. Russia is aggressively modernizing its strategic nuclear forces and has published a defense strategy that proposes the first use of nuclear weapons to “de-escalate” conventional conflicts with other major powers. China has taken a patient, more deliberate approach but is also increasing both the size and sophistication of its theater and strategic nuclear forces. North Korea has defied decades of sanctions and political maneuvers in its march to acquire not merely a theater nuclear capability but a strategic deterrent involving ICBMs and SLBMs. How many of these systems Pyongyang will eventually deploy is unknown. Finally, it is only a matter of time before the regime in Teheran develops and deploys both nuclear weapons and long-range delivery systems.

Deterrence of large-scale attacks on the homeland requires that the United States have a secure retaliatory capability. This is the vital role played by the SLBM force. But more is needed. An adversary might seek to execute only a limited attack, against a set of critical military and leadership targets in an attempt to paralyze this country. The United States has made commitments to protecting a number of allies against attack, including with nuclear weapons. This is extended deterrence, the so-called nuclear umbrella. This country also maintains the right to use nuclear weapons to deter attack on U.S. deployed forces and overseas bases. Virtually all planning scenarios for the use of U.S. strategic nuclear forces, including those for “crazy states” such as North Korea, see their use as the outcome of an intensifying military conflict that begins without the use of nuclear weapons and then grows to involve limited nuclear attacks and, finally, large-scale exchanges.

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