Brexit and the Long, Slow EU-UK Divorce

Michael J. Geary, Kevin A. Lees

Politics, Europe

This unhappy couple has been drifting apart for decades.

One could be forgiven for thinking that if Britain decides to leave the European Union on June 23, a whole host of horrible things will happen, including an economic meltdown, the collapse of the British National Health Service and a steep increase in unemployment across Britain (with Prime Minister David Cameron among those looking for a new job). Perhaps the most bizarre claim was made by Donald Tusk, current president of the European Council, who argued how a Brexit would mark nothing less than “the beginning of the destruction of western political civilization in its entirety.” Whatever the domestic impact of an exit for Britain, it is highly improbable that Tusk’s prophecy will come true. Indeed, it should be recalled that, despite some early setbacks (and a considerable degree of economic and political success), the European project had been in existence for twenty years before mildly Eurosceptic Britain finally boarded the European boat in 1973. Ironically, it was the post-membership years when harmony between the original EEC six was shattered, and a sense of hostility between London and its partners across the English Channel took hold of the integration process. But this was no ordinary lovers’ quarrel; the entirety of the past forty years of UK-EU relations is a turbulent narrative. Adopting a longue durée perspective, it is worth asking whether it is finally time to end Europe’s unhappiest political marriage? With British public opinion increasingly inclined to leave the EU, it is even more important to frame the question of Britain's relationship with Europe in realistic terms, however difficult that may be to accept.

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