Is Regime Change Still an Option for North Korea and Iran?
Raymond Tanter, Edward Stafford
Security, Asia
The Trump administration deserves credit for refraining from following a “one shoe fits all” policy toward regime change in Pyongyang.
Does the “What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander?” analogy apply to Pyongyang and Tehran? Relying on a “one size fits all” approach may lead to disaster. A regime-change policy for a rogue Tehran could serve the national interest because Iran has a viable coalition of dissidents; but the same policy could be a disaster if it was applied to Pyongyang, which lacks a self-sustaining opposition. What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander, e.g., if a regime-change policy were applied to one rogue state, then that policy is also applicable to another rogue state. Not so fast, for the bottom line here is the reverse is true. Consider the latest news of the day.
Breaking News
On August 29, Pyongyang launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile in a northeasterly direction, over Japan into the Pacific Ocean. Kim’s regime lobbed it to the east, over Hokkaido and into the Pacific, rather than on a southward path toward Guam; apparently Kim sought to test its flight on a normal trajectory without crossing the “red line” of aiming at the United States.
But contrary to Kim’s expectations, Trump said “all options are on the table,” a euphemism for implicitly threatening to use force. After all, North Korea had just launched a barrage of missiles on August 28, less than one week after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson praised the country for showing “restraint” in its weapons program. Pyongyang fired three short-range ballistic missiles from the Kangwon Province, according to U.S. Pacific Command. The launches occurred in the midst of the United States and South Korea’s annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercises, according to CNN.
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