Diggin’ Deep on UFC on FOX 25: Weidman vs. Gastelum - Main card preview

Check out the inner workings of the opening half of the main card of UFC on FOX 25, featuring a light heavyweight clash between Patrick Cummins and Gian Villante.

The main card of this edition of UFC on FOX is a bit unusual. There is no woman’s contest. Frequent FOX competitors Demetrious Johnson, Donald Cerrone, and Nate Diaz are conspicuously absent. It may have been a while since we’ve seen former FOX mainstay Matt Brown, but he’s absent too. Nonetheless, I have no problems with what the UFC has offered us for this week’s card. The opening half of the main card features a pivotal contest to help clear the clutter at the top of bantamweight and what may be the last opportunity for a pair of light heavyweights to receive a promotional push. While I can see both contests being ho-hum, both have a stronger likelihood of being very entertaining.

The main card for UFC on FOX 25 begins at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT on Saturday.

Patrick Cummins (9-4) vs. Gian Villante (15-8), Light Heavyweight

Both Cummins and Villante have been given plenty of opportunities to climb the ladder at 205 with neither taking advantage of those chances. It seems both are established as mid-tier gatekeepers, a frustrating role for them to settle in as many believe they have the talent to be more.

Cummins’ role is a bit more established for a couple of reasons: he’s already 36-years old and there isn’t much you can do to fix a glass chin. All of his losses have come by KO, though there were some encouraging signs that he has learned how to roll better with punches when he survived Jan Blachowicz’s onslaught this past April. It also helped that Blachowicz gassed and possesses horrible takedown defense, but the main thing is that Cummins survived an early storm to come back and score a definitive victory, something many didn’t believe he was capable of.

Cummins primary strengths are his wrestling and conditioning, pushing a hard pace while looking for ways to get the fight to the ground at all times. Well… most of the time. Cummins has a bad tendency to want to prove he’s developed a competent boxing game which is usually when he takes a hard shot to the chin. When the former wrestling All-American is playing to his strengths, he chains his takedowns together at such a relentless pace that it’s near impossible for opponents to avoid going to the ground.

Villante has a collegiate wrestling background of his own, though he is not nearly as decorated as Cummins. Nonetheless, Villante is probably the better athlete, five years younger, and hits a hell of a lot harder, two-thirds of his wins coming via TKO/KO. When his head is right, Villante puts together good boxing combinations with a nice mix of leg kicks. The problem is Villante’s head rarely seems to be right. He keeps his chin out there to be touched up all the time and tends to gas after the first round is over.

Perhaps the biggest question with Villante will be whether he’ll be able to stuff Cummins’ takedowns late in the contest. Since entering the UFC, only super-strong Ilir Latifi and the savvy Shogun Rua have been able to get Villante to the ground. Barring an early finish, it would be a shock to see Cummins not land a single takedown, but Villante will undoubtedly make him work hard for whatever he gets.

I could easily see Villante landing a hard right hand on Cummins’ chin and putting him out cold. I could also see Cummins surviving Villante’s early onslaught and grinding out a boring decision victory. It’s a tough pick, but thanks to Villante’s recent progress in extending his gas tank, the most likely scenario appears to be him landing a kill shot on Cummins at some point whether it be early or later in the contest. Villante via TKO of RD1

Jimmie Rivera (20-1) vs. Thomas Almeida (22-1), Bantamweight

Entering the UFC with different levels of hype, Rivera was seen as just another guy getting his shot in the UFC following a lengthy career on the regional scene while Almeida was much ballyhooed upon his entry. Though Rivera has supplanted Almeida in the rankings, it’s difficult to say definitively who the victor will be walking out.

Thought to be a meat-and-potatoes wrestle-boxer when he made it to the big show, Rivera has shown to be far more than that. He used all the years on the regional scene to polish up an already competent combination boxing game, becoming a master of distance and angles, allowing him to find his range without walking through a lot of return fire on the way in. Rivera’s lack of height and preference to attack the body helps him to stay low as he enters the pocket. What hurts Rivera is his lack of power. His technique has allowed him to put away the occasional opponent, but he needs to hit them square on the button to finish them up.

Almeida has often been called a brawler, but you don’t open up your career with 21 straight wins without legitimate skill. Almeida has made a few adjustments since entering the UFC, such as showing better distance management as he pressured. He still wings wide haymakers and induces long exchanges, but those aren’t the only staples of his arsenal. Lengthy combinations and heavy leg kicks have also been seen with plenty of regularity. It should be noted that Almeida does take a lot of damage, but that has more to do with his aggressive style of fighting than poor defensive technique.

Though Rivera is a far more proven wrestler, Almeida has shown to possess some of the best takedown defense in the division thanks to his natural athleticism and sprawl. Rivera has struggled to get his opponents down to the ground from time to time, but he has also faced some of the better wrestlers in the division. Both have proven to be difficult to catch in a scramble, so expect some fun exchanges if it comes down to that.

This is probably my overall favorite contest on the entire card. Rivera looks like he is ready for a title shot very soon while Almeida would appear to need more time to marinate. Don’t get me wrong, I do believe Almeida will end up having the greater amount of success in the future… just not right now. I don’t see a finish, so I’ll predict it goes all the way to a decision with Rivera’s wrestling and overall volume moving him one step closer to a title shot. Rivera via decision