Dollar exchange rate, inflation, and oil – National Bank published analysts' forecast

Tengrinews.kz — The National Bank of Kazakhstan has released the results of its October macroeconomic survey. Tengrinews.kz takes a look at analyst expectations for the tenge exchange rate, oil prices, and inflation.
USD Exchange Rate Outlook
Analysts have improved their forecasts for the USD/KZT exchange rate across the entire forecast horizon.
According to their estimates, the average dollar exchange rate in 2026 will be 479 tenge, down from the previously expected 490.
The 2027 forecast was lowered from 516.2 to 499.6 tenge per dollar. The most significant revision occurred for 2028, which was adjusted from 562.2 to 527.1 tenge per dollar.
Oil Price Forecasts
Analysts have raised their Brent crude price forecasts for all three years.

2026: increased from $82.7 to $88.4 per barrel;
2027: from $75 to $80;
2028: increased from $73.7 to $75 per barrel.

Respondents also improved their forecasts for the export of goods and services. For 2026, the expected volume stands at $96 billion, compared to $95 billion in the previous survey.
The 2027 forecast was raised from $93.6 billion to $93.9 billion, and the 2028 forecast from $97 billion to $98.2 billion.
At the same time, analysts revised their import forecasts upward. Expectations for 2026 are set at $84.5 billion, for 2027 at $87.5 billion, and for 2028 at $92 billion.
Inflation Outlook Improves
Respondents expect lower inflation in Kazakhstan throughout the entire forecast period.

The 2026 forecast was lowered from 10 percent to 9.5 percent.
Expectations for 2027 decreased from 8.5 percent to 8.3 percent.
For 2028, the forecast shifted from 7 percent to 6.9 percent.

In the long term, analysts expect inflation to reach 5.1 percent in five years. In the previous survey, the forecast stood at 5.3 percent.
Base Rate Projections
The base rate forecast for the end of 2026 was slightly reduced, from 16 percent to 15.9 percent.
However, expectations for the following years were raised. For the end of 2027, analysts project a rate of 13.3 percent instead of 13 percent. For the end of 2028, the forecast was increased from 10.5 percent to 11.5 percent.
Analysts estimated the neutral base rate—where monetary policy supports inflation at its target level in the long run—at 9.5 percent. In the previous survey, this figure was 9 percent.
Note:The National Bank's survey was conducted from October 1 to October 7, 2026. Fourteen organizations participated, including AERC, Halyk Finance, BCC Invest, Freedom Finance, the Eurasian Development Bank, and other analytical and financial institutions.
The National Bank clarified that these forecasts reflect respondent expectations and do not represent the regulator's own projections.

"Forecast ranges for most macroeconomic indicators remain fairly wide across the entire horizon, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in analytical estimates. Higher oil price expectations are accompanied by a revision of USD/KZT forecasts toward a stronger tenge and slightly higher export estimates. Inflation expectations have improved both over the forecast horizon and in the long term. Meanwhile, analysts are projecting a higher base rate trajectory for 2027–2028, while maintaining stable GDP growth forecasts," the document states.