IMF lowered its global forecast, but reported good news for Kazakhstan

Tengrinews.kz — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan in its latest quarterly outlook. According to the Fund, the country's growth rate over the next two years will remain higher than that of most of the world's largest economies.

Economic growth projections for Kazakhstan

According to the IMF's July outlook, Kazakhstan's economy is projected to grow by 4.6 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027 in real terms (adjusted for inflation).

Notably, Kazakhstan remains the only Central Asian country for which the IMF provides a standalone economic forecast. Among the 30 featured nations, the Kazakh economy ranks third, trailing only India—whose GDP is expected to grow by 6.4 and 6.7 percent over the next two years—and Indonesia, with figures of 5 and 5.1 percent.

The worst outlook is for Iran, whose economy is expected to contract by 5.4 percent by the end of 2026 amid ongoing hostilities. All other 30 countries presented are projected to see positive growth by the IMF. Furthermore, Iran is expected to rebound with a 2.9 percent GDP growth as early as the following year.

Key changes in the IMF forecast

Compared to the April version, the forecast for Kazakhstan remains unchanged. Meanwhile, the outlook for the global economy has been downgraded from 3.1 to 3 percent for this year but upgraded from 3.2 to 3.4 percent for 2027. The expected slowdown in 2026 is linked to the consequences of the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. These effects will be partially offset by accelerating global demand driven by the development of artificial intelligence.

Winners and losers

The IMF notes that the conflict will inevitably have a significant impact on many countries, though the consequences will vary depending on a state's involvement in hostilities and its position in the "global technological chain." Oil exporters (excluding Gulf nations) are expected to be among the primary beneficiaries due to higher oil prices.

Countries prioritizing technological development are showing high economic activity, which will also positively impact GDP growth by year-end. This applies even to those actively purchasing energy resources that saw price spikes in the spring. Conversely, oil and gas importers with limited participation in the global technological value chain are already facing a slowdown in activity and growth—a trend expected to persist for the next 18 months.

The state of the global economy will also be affected by global inflation, which is expected to accelerate to 4.7 percent by late December from last year's 4.1 percent, before slowing to 3.9 percent next year.

Forecasts for the US, China, and Russia

The US economy is projected to grow by 2.3 and 2.2 percent over the next two years, compared to 2.1 percent last year and 2.8 percent in 2024. White House concerns over the sharp rise in gasoline prices in the spring (which impacts shipping costs and final prices for goods and services) are believed to have been a factor in the conclusion of a now-broken truce with Iran.

According to the IMF, Russia's GDP will grow by 1.1 percent both this year and next. Higher oil prices are expected to mitigate domestic issues that led to an economic downturn at the beginning of the year. China's growth is projected at 4.6 and 4.1 percent, following two consecutive years of five percent growth in 2024 and 2025. In the second quarter, the Chinese economy posted its weakest growth performance in 3.5 years.

The IMF report does not specify the specific drivers of Kazakhstan's GDP growth. According to government estimates, the economy grew by 4.1 percent in real terms in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. In 2025, annual GDP growth stood at 6.5 percent.