Heat up to +44°C and frost: what May 2026 will be like in Kazakhstan

Tengrinews.kz — Kazhydromet meteorologists have issued a consultative weather forecast for May 2026 in Kazakhstan. According to specialists, the country as a whole is expected to see warmer-than-usual weather with uneven precipitation distribution.
Air temperature across Kazakhstan
In most regions of Kazakhstan, the average monthly temperature in May is forecast to range from +14 to +19°C.
Warmer weather is expected in the southwest, south, and far southeast, with temperatures ranging from +20 to +24°C.
In the mountainous areas of the southeast and east, temperatures will be around +12 to +14°C.
The deviation from the climatic norm will be +1 to +2°C above average.

Precipitation in May
Overall, precipitation across Kazakhstan is expected to be around normal.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast in a number of regions, including Kyzylorda Region, Ulytau Region, parts of Karaganda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl Regions, as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the country.

Forecast for Astana
In Astana, the average temperature in May is expected to be around +16.1°C, which is 1.6°C above normal.
During the first ten-day period, nighttime temperatures are forecast to fluctuate from +2...+7°C to +11...+16°C, and daytime temperatures from +16...+21°C to +25...+30°C. At the very end of the period, a sharp drop in temperature is expected.
During the second ten-day period, nighttime temperatures are expected to fluctuate from +2...+7°C, with ground frosts down to -1°C, to +14...+19°C, while daytime temperatures will range from +16...+21°C to +28...+33°C. At the very end of the period, temperatures are expected to rise to +5...+10°C at night and +20...+25°C during the day.
During the third ten-day period, nighttime temperatures are expected to drop from +9...+14°C to 0...+5°C, with ground frosts down to -3°C, and daytime temperatures from +23...+28°C to +10...+15°C. At the end of the period, temperatures are expected to rise again to +9...+14°C at night and +23...+28°C during the day.
Precipitation in the capital is expected to be around normal.
Forecast for Almaty
In Almaty, the average air temperature in May is expected to be around +19°C, which is 1.9°C above normal.
During the first ten-day period, nighttime temperatures are expected to fluctuate from +9...+14°C to +14...+19°C, and daytime temperatures from +23...+28°C to +28...+33°C.
During the second ten-day period, temperatures are expected to rise from +9...+14°C to +17...+22°C at night, and from +23...+28°C to +33...+38°C during the day. At the end of the period, temperatures are forecast to drop to +9...+14°C at night and +23...+28°C during the day.
During the third ten-day period, nighttime temperatures are expected to rise to +15...+20°C, and daytime temperatures to +29...+34°C. Then, temperatures will fall to +7...+12°C at night and +26...+31°C during the day. At the very end of the period, temperatures are forecast to rise again to +12...+17°C at night and +26...+31°C during the day.
Precipitation is expected to remain within the normal range, although rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and isolated hazardous weather events, including squalls and dust storms, are possible during the month.
Forecast for Shymkent
In Shymkent, the average air temperature in May is expected to be around +21.4°C, which is 2.1°C above normal.
During the first ten-day period, nighttime temperatures are expected to gradually rise from +10...+15°C to +17...+22°C, and daytime temperatures from +23...+28°C to +33...+38°C. At the end of the period, temperatures are expected to drop to +11...+16°C at night and +25...+30°C during the day.
During the second ten-day period, nighttime temperatures are forecast to rise to +20...+25°C, and daytime temperatures to +39...+44°C. Then, temperatures are expected to drop to +10...+15°C at night and +27...+32°C during the day. At the very end of the period, a sharp rise in temperature is expected.
During the third ten-day period, temperatures are expected to continue rising to +15...+20°C at night and +34...+39°C during the day. Then, a sharp drop in temperature is expected, to +10...+15°C at night and +22...+27°C during the day. In the second half of the period, nighttime temperatures will fluctuate from +10...+15°C to +16...+21°C, and daytime temperatures from +22...+27°C to +28...+33°C.
Monthly precipitation is also expected to be around normal.