Shock poll puts deep red Iowa in serious play for Dems in midterms

A recent survey by a Democratic group projects voters in deep red Iowa have cooled on President Donald Trump — and have the state in serious contention for the 2026 midterm elections, according to reporting by Politico.

The Democratic pollster GBAO for the center-left ModSquad, led by Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), found Republicans are barely favored in both the Senate and general ballots for Congress. Currently, Democratic Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand is leading the governor’s race 50 to 42 percent – surpassing GOP Representative Randy Feenstra by eight points.

Despite being a red state, the poll concludes, “Democrats outperform party identification in the generic congressional ballot,” as Trump loses traction, with 50 percent unfavorable and 45 percent favorable ratings.

Polling shows GOP Representative Ashley Hinson is in a vulnerable position in comparison to her lesser-known Democratic opponents state Senator Zach Wahls and state Representative Josh Turek, scoring a 23 percent to 31 percent unfavorable rating

Although the survey has a 2.8 percent margin of error, Politico notes partisan polls should always be taken with a grain of salt.

According to Politico, Republicans continue their campaign and claim Iowa will be a heated race. It’s one of five key GOP states where Senate Republicans have invested $29 million in ad spending for this fall's vote.

Overall, the survey highlights Turek’s performance in the polls and favors the Democratic nominee over both Wahls and Hinson.

“In this environment, Democratic candidates Josh Turek and Zach Wahls both begin within a striking distance of Republican Ashley Hinson,” concludes GBAO. “But Turek emerges as the stronger general election candidate: after balanced messaging, he moves ahead of Hinson, while Wahls continues to trail.”

“Notably, Turek makes substantial gains among independents over the course of the survey,” notes the memo, “shifting the net vote margin 7 points in his favor and opening up a 17-point lead with them.”

According to reporting by Politico, the memo concludes Turek’s popularity can grow after voters hear his profile: 62 percent say his profile is a convincing reason to vote for him. Turek is followed by Wahls with a 51 percent and Hinson comes in at last with 48.

The memo does not disclose the messages it tested, and for this reason Politico notes it is impossible to conclude if its observations are a fair or accurate depiction of Iowa’s November general midterm election.