What’s next in Iran? How the conflict could unfold in the coming days
It’s been three days since the United States and Israel launched an aerial campaign against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and crippling the regime.
But the chaos has spilt over into neighbouring countries, has already seen multiple American soldiers die and missiles fired at British bases in the Mediterranean.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said earlier today: ‘We have launched the deadliest air campaign in history and used strategic bombers.’
Now, the biggest question is: what happens next?
Dr Katayoun Shahandeh from the University of London told Metro that the conflict could spread. However, she doesn’t believe Russia or China, Iran’s biggest allies, would have any inclination to get involved.
Ross Harrison, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC and author of the new book ‘Decoding Iran’s Foreign Policy’ told Metro the biggest worry for China is the possible disruption of oil supplies.
Around 20% of the world’s energy supplies currently transit through the Strait of Hormuz, south of Iran.
Harrison added: ‘My hunch is that if the conflict continues for a week or two, they will get involved diplomatically through international organisations like the UN. I don’t see this globalising in a military sense.
‘In terms of economic impact? Perhaps. In terms of the international order going forward? Yes. But in terms of spreading to an actual World War III situation? I doubt it.’
Dr Shahandeh explained that although the Iranians haven’t shut down the key shipping lane yet, they ‘won’t think twice’ if they feel desperate.
‘They would bring the rest of the world into the conflict. Essentially, they want to ensure that if they aren’t going to survive, they will damage the world economy as much as possible,’ she added.
‘It has always been within the ethos of the Islamic Republic to fight to the end. Given this Shiite militant ideology, they will not go down without a fight.’
This is a ‘fight to the death’ for Iran
The Islamic Republic has prepared to fight until the death, with contingency plans in place since the Revolution, as the regime’s legitimacy has ‘always been questioned’, Dr Shahandeh said.
But at the moment, the regime is holding on to the shreds of the Islamic Republic, with ‘no signs’ of internal strife in the apparatus of the regime – but that doesn’t mean it will stay that way, Dr Shahandeh added.
‘Iranian proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraqi militants) will come to Iran’s aid and try to inflict damage where they can, particularly against Israel,’ she explained.
‘To what extent they will be successful is the real question. If neighbouring countries get fully involved, we are looking at the equivalent of World War III.’
US president Donald Trump said he sees another four weeks of conflict in the region, which could end the Islamic Republic for good, but Dr Shahandeh has her doubts.
‘They are more resilient than people think because of their structure and their long history of contingency planning.’
Will this be the start of World War Three?
Despite being hit by missiles, other regional neighbours like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar will likely not get involved directly, Harrison says, unless they are continuously attacked.
‘They don’t have the offensive capability; they only have defensive capability. Perhaps the Saudis do to some degree, but the others do not. I don’t think kinetic action will spread from the Gulf states to Iran. They simply don’t have that capacity at this point,’ he added.
But in the coming days, tensions will not die down, Harrison said, adding: ‘Right now, escalation dominance is in the hands of the United States and Israel. If you’re looking for signals, they have to come from those two actors.’
In the coming weeks, however, Harrison said the world will see Iran ‘putting as brave a face as they can on their succession struggle.’
He added: ‘For the Iranians, winning doesn’t mean winning militarily—that’s a foregone conclusion, they cannot. Winning for them means the regime coming out of this intact and maintaining some ability to retaliate.
‘If the regime doesn’t crack from within and maintains some retaliatory capability over the next week, you might see a potential de-escalation.
‘But at this point, I think there is still an appetite on the part of the Israelis and the Americans to try to bring this regime down.’