Why is the Gorton and Denton by-election so important?
You’d be forgiven for thinking that today’s Gorton and Denton by-election in Manchester is a potentially earth-shattering, epochal, life-or-death moment for Sir Keir Starmer.
Especially if you’ve been going a little heavy on the political journalism.
Yes, we reporters do like to overegg these things. In the end, last year’s Reform by-election victory over Labour in Runcorn and Helsby told us one thing: people in Runcorn and Helsby liked Reform a bit more than Labour at that point in time.
So is anything different about this one?
I’m going to be iconoclastic here and say probably not, in the long run. They might increase pressure, but no Prime Minister has ever resigned due to a local by-election result because that would be bananas.
However – and it’s a big ‘however’ – that doesn’t mean the vote in Gorton and Denton will tell us nothing interesting.
Far from it. It’s a valuable glimpse at how Labour is performing in the sorts of places the party won easily a little over 18 months ago… and even before polling stations open, it doesn’t look great.
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Surveys conducted in the constituency since the by-election was announced have indicated it’s going to be extraordinarily tight, with both Reform and the Green Party sitting roughly equal with Labour.
Keep in mind what happened in Runcorn & Helsby last May, when Sarah Pochin won by just six votes.
With two alternatives to Labour from very different parts of the political spectrum available this time, it’ll be fascinating to see what calculations voters make.
Who are the main characters?
In the red corner, we have Labour’s Angeliki Stogia. Of course, that almost wasn’t the case – if Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham had his way last month, he’d have been his party’s candidate.
Instead, he’s channelled his popularity into full-throated support for Stogia, who’s currently a city councillor for a ward slightly closer to the centre than Gorton and Denton.
If she wins, it’ll be a big relief to Keir Starmer, who personally campaigned for her on Monday. Though of course, the margin of victory would give us plenty to talk about.
In the green corner, it’s Hannah Spencer for, uh, the Green Party. If you know one thing about her, it’s that she is a plumber – a job she says she’s done since leaving school at 16.
Party leader Zack Polanski has joked that the Houses of Parliament could benefit from a plumber due to their ‘leaky roofs’, and her Instagram handle is @hannahtheplumbermcr. But we also learned in a video this week that she can speak Urdu (a bit).
If she wins, it might be the worst-case scenario for Labour. It would demonstrate they can be just as vulnerable to populism on the left as populism on the right and blow apart their narrative that Labour is the only party that can beat Reform.
In the teal corner, we have Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin. He’s a bit of a celeb on the right-wing, with his own GB News show and a popular Substack.
He is from the local area and has made much of the fact he used to deliver pizzas in the constituency. But despite that, he’s decided to frame the by-election as a referendum on whether people like Keir Starmer.
If he wins, there might be a silver lining for the government – they could, at least, argue that the Green Party split the vote and handed Reform another MP.
That line could come in handy for the future.
What are the odds for the Gorton and Denton by-election?
The Gorton & Denton by-election has been fiercely contested, with odds from yesterday showing the Green party and Reform leading the way according to the bookies.
Oddschecker said the night before the election, the Greens continue to be the odds-on favourites at 4/6 while Reform is priced at 5/2 to win the Greater Manchester constituency.
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers stated, ‘A back-and-forth betting battle has ensued in the build-up to the Gorton & Denton by-election.
‘With just a day to go until it’s conclusion, there is nothing to split the Green party and Reform in the betting split. Green received 38% of bets placed over the last 12 hours while Reform was a fraction behind with 37%.
‘Hannah Spencer and Green continue to be the shortest priced party at 4/6 while Reform are being backed at 5/2. Labour (4/1) remains in contention for the constituency they have held since 1935.’
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