Why Haley's nod is a big deal for Trump

Nikki Haley's decision to back former President Trump is a big development in the 2024 race that is likely to help unify Republicans further behind a candidate who has somewhat divided them.  

While Trump steamrolled though the primaries, a substantial protest vote in contest after contest has emerged for Haley — a concern for the ex-president's camp, though he brushed it off. 

Haley's decision could limit that protest. At a minimum, it means the woman making headlines for winning such support is throwing her weight behind her rival. 

“I think it does have an impact, I think a lot of the most genuine Haley supporters do care and it does make it slightly harder,” said Robert Schwartz, the executive director of the Haley Voters Working Group, when asked if the development made it more difficult for the Biden campaign to win over her supporters.

Last week, Haley won 20 percent of the vote in Maryland’s GOP primary and 18 percent in Nebraska’s primary. Those results came after she received nearly 22 percent in Indiana. And in April, Haley won over 100,00 votes in Arizona and Pennsylvania, respectively. 

“At the start of the cycle there was always 20 to 30 percent of modeled Republicans in the primary that were never going to consider voting for Trump in the primary process,” said one Republican strategist. 

Haley’s public comments saying she would vote for Trump could also be interpreted as a signal to her donors that they have the greenlight to put financial resources behind Trump. 

“Divided parties fall, so both campaigns need to unify,” said Bruce Mehlman, a former official under President George W. Bush. “Democrats tried to unify by disallowing alternatives from the outset, Republicans by persuading the many failed competitors to ultimately bend the knee and fall in line.”

Haley’s backing of Trump is undoubtedly a blow to President Biden, who has been working to court her supporters since she exited the race in March.

Biden has argued that moderates, independents and those disillusioned by their choice in November belong in his camp, in an attempt to grow the Democrats’ coalition ahead of November.

The Biden campaign launched an ad just last month, aiming to target Haley voters and underscore Trump’s insults toward her and her supporters.

They also held a Zoom call with the Haley Voters Working Group following her remarks, a source familiar with the meeting confirmed to The Hill. The meeting was on the books before Haley’s comment and not a reaction to it, the source said.

Schwartz, the head of the group, said he was undeterred by Haley’s half-endorsement of the former president.

“…[The] whole point of our organization is we already thought it was going to be hard and we wanted to make sure it’s Haley voters that we’re focused on—Nikki Haley made a tough decision and a lot of these voters are going to have to make tough decisions as well,” he said.

Meanwhile, Democrats say they aren’t shocked by Haley’s move. 

“At the end of the day this is a further indication of the old adage that Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist. 

“Let’s not make assumptions about any of those who spoke out against Trump in the primary,” he added. 

And Haley, along with the other then-2024 Republican presidential hopefuls, signed a Republican National Committee pledge to support the nominee. The pledge was required for candidates to take part in the primary debates. Trump did not sign the pledge. 

When asked in early March by NBC’s “Meet the Press” whether she felt compelled by the pledge, Haley said, “No. I think I’ll make what decision I want to make.”

John LaBombard, former communications director for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), agreed Haley's support isn’t surprising and shouldn’t change much for Biden.

“It was always going to require real, sustained effort for President Biden to earn the support of some chunk of these voters and that remains the case,” said LaBombard, a senior vice president at ROKK Solutions. “But registered Republicans willing to buck Donald Trump are already exercising independent thinking and a willingness to break from their party orthodoxy– so while some will support Trump and some will undervote, some probably also remain open to supporting President Biden. And ‘some’ may be enough in one or more of the battleground states.”

Whatever decision Haley made would also inevitably impact her future plans, including another possible presidential run. 

She is seen as a formidable force in the GOP, highlighted by the primary votes she was able to bring in, and her move raises questions over if she’s making a bid for vice president or a cabinet slot.

“If you want to have a future in GOP politics, you have to back the nominee,” the Republican strategist said. “To have a future in the party, you can’t ever be seen as not being supportive of the nominee and frankly particularly if they were to lose. You never want to be the one partially or in this case maybe unfairly or not, significantly blamed for that.” 

However, some Haley supporters are quick to point out that she made the comments in her capacity “as a voter.” 

“A lot of her voters weren’t look to her for a permission structure,” said Alissa Baker, a Haley supporter who served on her Virginia leadership team. 

“She stated a personal opinion,” Baker continued. “Maybe some people will follow it, but I don’t think it was in any way an endorsement so I don’t know if anyone will really jump on top of it and say this is going to move the needle either way.”

Still, some anti-Trump Republicans are criticizing her move.

“Not a surprise but: Pathetic,” said former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.).

“Oh and remember this [Haley] from just 2 ½ months ago: Trump ‘is unhinged’ and ‘an unhinged president is an unsafe president.’ Were you lying then? Or did you really believe it?” Former RNC chair Michael Steele wrote on X.