Six Big Questions Leading Into the First CFP Rankings
It’s Georgia, Tennessee … and everyone else? Not quite, but the committee does face a few daunting tasks leading into Tuesday night, and beyond.
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (eight-turnover meltdowns sold separately in the Atlantic Coast Conference—Coral Gables and Winston-Salem, specifically):
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Second Quarter
The Playoff Rankings Are Coming … Prepare Accordingly
On Tuesday night, we begin the latest season of that hit ESPN series, Adventures In Uselessly Antagonizing America, otherwise known as the College Football Playoff rankings show. It serves no purpose other than to provide programming for ESPN and rile up fans everywhere. These are five weeks of ranking reveals that do not matter, leading up to the one that does: Selection Sunday on Dec. 4.
But these rankings will reverberate, even if they don’t resonate. So The Dash will join the viewing audience Tuesday night to see what the CFP selection committee thinks about the 2022 season to this point. In advance of that, these are the six biggest questions in need of answers:
How realistic is an SEC 75% solution (11)? Granted, the league already has done plenty of taking over, winning three straight titles and enjoying two CFP championship games pitting conference members against each other. But can the league up the dose and lock down three out of four bids?
At the moment, it’s possible. Tennessee (8–0) and Georgia (8–0) are virtually certain to be in the top four in the first rankings. The whereabouts of 7–1 Alabama will be interesting—the Crimson Tide lost by three points on the last play of the game against the Volunteers, but there have been a couple of other close scrapes and not a lot in the way of quality wins.
The league can wind up with three one-loss teams if Alabama wins out, including an SEC championship game victory—the Crimson Tide at 12–1, the winner of this week’s Tennessee-Georgia game, also at 12–1, and the loser of that game at 11–1. (There are other losable games along the way to Selection Sunday, so this is all speculative.)
That’s a pretty strong hand. How the presumed third-best of those teams would stack up against the rest of the nation would be the big test. This much seems likely: a nationally diverse selection committee would be under considerable pressure by the public and other conferences to find alternatives to ceding three-fourths of the Playoff to the SEC. For now, consider it possible but unlikely. (If it does happen, you will absolutely see the oncoming 12-team Playoff fast-tracked for 2024, not ’26 or ’25.)
What about a Big Ten double (12)? The league has three teams with one or fewer losses: Ohio State (8–0), Michigan (8–0) and Illinois (7–1). If the CFP rankings mirror the polls and have the Buckeyes and Wolverines within the top four, that’s a promising place to start. Illinois might be ranked higher by the committee than the human polls by simple virtue of not starting the season outside the rankings and thus being held down by slot voting.
The Big Ten cannot get all three to the finish line with one loss—Illinois plays Michigan on Nov. 19, and then Michigan takes on Ohio State on Nov. 26. In theory, the winner of the latter game then would play the Illini in the league title game. But it could finish with either of the following combinations: league champion Illinois at 12–1 and league runner-up Ohio State at 12–1; or a 13–0 Michigan/Ohio State league champ with the loser of that game at 11–1.
In either of those cases, the Big Ten would have its best case for two in the Playoff. But there also could be quibbles with their nonconference schedules and Illinois’s Big Ten West slate. Which leads us to question No. 3.
How much of a problem is Michigan’s pitiful nonconference schedule (13)? The Wolverines started the season with blowouts of Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut, three non-Power 5 teams that are a combined 8–18. And lest anyone forget, they chose to schedule that way, dropping a series with UCLA.
If Michigan finishes 13–0, the noncon cruise is moot—an undefeated Big Ten champ is getting in. But at 12–1 or 11–1, there could be a price to pay for loading up on lightweights. Jim Harbaugh’s team is getting an unexpected strength-of-schedule boost from Nov. 19 opponent Illinois and the newfound competence of Maryland, but a résumé contest could be close in the end.
How much does a 46-point loss (14) hurt? That’s the question dogging Oregon (7–1). The Ducks have been pretty dominant since the season opener, but that debacle did leave a mark—they were wiped out 49–3 in Atlanta by reigning national champion Georgia. Of the 32 teams that have made the Playoff field, none had ever lost by anything near that margin prior to selection. The biggest margins of defeat on record are Georgia by 23 points to Auburn in 2017 (a defeat the Bulldogs avenged in the SEC championship game) and Notre Dame by 24 to Clemson in the 2020 ACC title game (an unusual circumstance in an unusual season).
But give Oregon credit for agreeing to schedule that game, and to contest it with a first-year coach and a transfer quarterback playing his first game for the Ducks. Since the opener, Oregon has outscored its opponents by an average of 22.6 points and is the last unbeaten in Pac-12 play. This is part of an ancillary question: with three teams ranked in the AP top 10, is this the year the Pac-12 gets back in the Playoff for the first time since 2016? We’ll see whether the committee views the league similarly.
Will undefeated TCU (15) and Clemson (16) be ahead of one-loss Alabama? In the current media and coaches polls, the Crimson Tide are situated ahead of the Horned Frogs and behind the Tigers. To date, Clemson is 3–0 against the rest of the AP top 25. TCU is 2–0. Alabama is 0–1. Seems pretty cut and dry at the moment, but the Crimson Tide carry a lot of cache and have played a tougher non-conference game—at Texas in September—than either of the other two teams. (TCU gets a chance for a comparative score game against the Longhorns on Nov. 12.)
Alabama’s schedule is about to ramp up, against AP top-15 opponents LSU and Mississippi, over the next two weeks. But for now, it seems to The Dash that the Tide should be no higher than seventh Tuesday night.
Is there a Cinderella (17) in the mix? Almost assuredly not, but if a rash of upset losses breaks out, the telescopic long shots would be Tulane (7–1) and Liberty (7–1).
The Green Wave have one great win—at No. 13 Kansas State—and the possibility of three quality American Athletic Conference wins. If Tulane gets to the clubhouse 12–1 with a victory over a K-State team that might well play for (and win) the Big 12 title, plus a combined three wins over UCF and Cincinnati (one in the AAC title game), that’s not bad. As for Liberty, the Flames are an independent and thus locked into 12 games, and their upcoming games against Power 5 opponents have lost luster (Arkansas and Virginia Tech are a combined 7–9). But there is no shame in their lone loss so far—Liberty was a missed two-point conversion away from beating 6–2 Wake Forest on the road.
Four For The Playoff
Why wait until Tuesday night to see how the CFP should be seeded and bracketed? The Dash offers the weekly insight right here, as always predicated on the theory that today is Selection Sunday.
Peach Bowl
- Top seed Tennessee (18) vs. fourth seed Ohio State (19)
The Volunteers (8–0) were extremely impressive in destroying Kentucky, 44–6, on Saturday. It was Tennessee’s fourth straight game scoring 40 or more points, and it was the best performance to date by the Vols’ defense—season lows allowed in total yards (205) and yards per play (3.25). Next up for Tennessee: at Georgia in the SEC East Armageddon game.
The Buckeyes (8–0) had a big win of their own, going on the road to Penn State and trailing before exploding for 28 points in the final quarter. This was a weird game, far from the fast knockouts of recent weeks, but it was also the best opponent Ohio State has faced to date, and in a difficult venue. Next up for Ohio State: at Northwestern in what should be an avert-your-gaze blowout.
Fiesta Bowl
- Second seed Georgia (20) vs. third seed Michigan
The Bulldogs (8–0) won an eventful Cocktail Party game against rival Florida in Jacksonville—jumping to a 28–3 lead, seeing that shrink to 28–20, then running away again at the end. Georgia topped seven yards per play for the third straight game and Brock Bowers continued to reinforce that he is the best tight end in the country (five catches for 154 yards). Next up for Georgia: Tennessee between the hedges Saturday, amid massive stakes.
The Wolverines (8–0) also rolled in a rivalry game, although the 29–7 victory over Michigan State was completely overshadowed by the postgame tunnel violence. Michigan was good in all three phases of the game but again struggled in red-zone execution, kicking five field goals. Next up for Michigan: at Rutgers on Saturday.
Dropped out from last week: None.
Also considered: TCU, Clemson, Alabama.
MORE DASH: Melee at the Big House