Is it stupid to expect big things from Breece Hall or James Robinson? Vegas says yes. I'm going in the opposite direction.
Last week, the Christian Kirk prosperity Bible added new pages. The Trey Lance deep ball connection, however, fell apart after only three passes.
While Kirk and the Jaguars were dealing, the San Francisco 49ers were forced to turn to old friend Jimmy Garoppolo behind center in relief of Lance, who’ll miss the rest of the 2022 NFL season thanks to an ankle injury. That leaves the Niners with newfound questions left to be answered about their offense now that they’re down a starting running back, starting quarterback and have yet to see George Kittle take a snap.
That leaves our San Francisco props in “wait and see” mode, especially against the dumbfounding Denver Broncos. Fortunately, that leaves us with 14 other games to sort through and find some viable plays. After another five-win week in the official recommendations — and a 3-0 roll through the unofficial plays — let’s see if we can extend this hot streak or whether a regression is coming.
As always, official plays in bold. We’re going big this week with 10 recommendations, perhaps due to hubris, or perhaps to speed up my regression to the mean so I don’t feel as much pressure later on. Who knows?Carson Wentz OVER 239.5 passing yards. Wentz has been forced to play from behind in each of his first two games and has thrown for 310-plus yards in each of them. Expect him to trail early and often against a soaring Philadelphia Eagles team. Baker Mayfield UNDER 209.5 passing yards. The New Orleans Saints just held Tom Brady to 190. Mayfield topped out at 145 last week against the New York Giants. Maybe this prop blows up and Mayfield balls out in garbage time. Or maybe there’s money to be made betting against a Baker Mayfield revival. Breece Hall OVER 27.5 rushing yards. A line that suggests last week’s seven-carry, 50-yard performance wasn’t a sign of things to come. Hall hasn’t been trusted with too many handoffs yet, but could see his role expanded after a positive, fumble-free impact in Week 2. Joe Burrow OVER 10.5 rushing yards. Burrow’s had to scramble for his life behind a disjointed offensive line en route to 73 rushing yards in two games. The Jets have called the sixth-fewest blitzes in the league, but the Cowboys blitz at a similar rate and still flushed Joe Schiesty from the pocket with regularity last Sunday. James Robinson OVER 49.5 rushing yards. Robinson’s snap share rose from 49 percent to 63 percent last week — and he wasn’t even that effective. Still, his 2.8 yards per carry were better than Travis Etienne’s 2.2 and he should retain his spot as Doug Pederson’s top guy when it comes to running plays in 2022. Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 4.5 receptions and 64.5 receiving yards. Pittman had 13 targets, nine catches and 121 yards in a Week 1 tie vs. the Texans. Then he missed Week 2 due to injury and Matt Ryan had, statistically, the third-worst game of his career. Expect him to get the volume needed to hit this prop, even if he’s doubled often. Of course, scrap this bet if new injury news pops up. Drake London OVER 4.5 receptions and 54.5 yards. Have you seen Drake London? Marcus Mariota has, which is why London had 48 percent of the Falcons’ targets last week. Christian Kirk OVER 59.5 receiving yards. I’m not sure Kirk will have another six-catch day, but I’m gonna keep riding his yardage overs until they get similarly questionable.
Last week: 5-2 (.714)
Season to date: 10-3 (.769)