Navalny has boxed Putin into a 'humiliating' Catch-22, national-security officials say

If Putin kills Navalny, it could draw more attention to the problem. If Putin lets Navalny live, then Navalny remains a focus for resistance.

• Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny has outmaneuvered Putin at every turn despite being in prison, national-security sources say.
• If Putin kills Navalny, it could exacerbate unrest among the public.
• If Putin lets Navalny live, then Navalny remains a focus for resistance.

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A weekend of demonstrations against Russian President Vladimir Putin, sparked by the arrest of the opposition leader and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny, has boxed Putin into an odd corner, according to European diplomats and intelligence officials.

Putin suddenly has no obvious good options for dealing with Navalny, a longtime critic of the Russian autocrat.


Earlier this month, Navalny returned to Russia from Germany, where he had recovered from being poisoned last August while in Tomsk, Russia, probably by Putin loyalists. He was imprisoned upon his arrival - which only heightened his profile.

That seems to be derailing Putin's preferred narrative, which is that Navalny is an irrelevant gadfly and not the leader of a movement that might return democracy to Russia.

Putin hasn't faced a challenge like this before

Tens of thousands of people demonstrated across Russia on Saturday - and not just in liberal cities in the west that are often seen as bases for Navalny's support but pose little immediate threat to the government.

Navalny's skill at explaining the depths of Putin's team's corruption - and his survival of a baroque poisoning plot that used a substance available only to Russian intelligence - poses a challenge that Putin has never faced, multiple officials told Insider.

Half a dozen EU diplomats and intelligence officials shared the view that Navalny's repeated provocations against Putin had changed the equation in Russia.

'Navalny has very much outmaneuvered Putin at each turn since the poisoning'

Since agents of Putin tried to kill him on August 20, Navalny has:

• Survived long enough to be transferred to Germany for successful treatment.
• Used his three-month recovery to investigate the attack with journalists.
• Tricked a Russian intelligence agent into admitting to the plot on an open phone line.
• Returned to Moscow despite threats of arrest.
• Released a two-hour documentary last week - while he was in prison - detailing Putin's corruption.
• Organized Russia's largest and most aggressive anti-Putin protests in over a decade.

Observers are at a loss to predict what will happen next, because Putin is in a Catch-22: If Putin kills Navalny, it could draw more attention to the problem and exacerbate unrest. If Putin lets Navalny live, then Navalny remains a focus for resistance, whether he is in prison or not.


"Navalny has very much outmaneuvered Putin at each turn since the poisoning. It's becoming a bit humiliating for him, and I'm not sure how safe Navalny might be right now," said a central European intelligence officer who works in Russia-related counterintelligence.

"Navalny was supposed to die last summer, and there would have been some protests, some arrests, maybe some sanctions," the official said. While Putin survived the 2015 assassination of the dissident politician Boris Nemtsov "fine because Boris was dead and all that remained was outrage that eventually faded," the official continued, "Navalny alive is a major problem."


'I worry that normally calm and cold Putin might be flustered a bit because Navalny makes him look weak'

"I worry that normally calm and cold Putin might be flustered a bit because Navalny makes him look weak to his oligarchs and cronies from the security services," the official added. "It wouldn't be prudent to kill him in custody with the entire world watching, but the pressure is immense."


Putin has also lost his main US ally, Donald Trump, who likely would not have pressured Putin for Navalny's freedom.

European officials were meeting across the continent on Monday to discuss responses to the weekend's events. They are optimistically buoyed by the arrival of US President Joe Biden's diplomatic team, which has already shown more enthusiasm for engagement on Russia issues than the previous administration.


"The Biden team has just gotten into place, and this [situation] will pose a well-timed challenge for the US and Europe to work together," said a Western European diplomat, who asked not to be named because of meetings throughout the day in Brussels on the matter.

"We expect and have already seen much strong commitment to confronting Russia on issues like human rights, transparency, and corruption from the US side, and there will be extensive meetings on Navalny as the situation develops.

"Beyond that, there's not many specifics to report yet; it's an ongoing process."


With Trump gone, Putin can no longer expect the US to look away

The US State Department released a statement on Saturday in support of protesters that has already angered Russian officials.


"The United States will stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our allies and partners in defense of human rights - whether in Russia or wherever they come under threat," said Ned Price, a department spokesman.

This drew a response from the Kremlin press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, who told The Guardian: "We're not ready for diktat, we're not ready for boorishness, and we're not ready for any crossing of red lines."


"Lots of people are going to say that many people came out to this illegal rally," Peskov said. "No. Few people came out, but many people vote for Putin."

Peskov added that "a lot of people voted for constitutional reform" that would let Putin run for president until 2036. "If you compare the numbers, you'll see how few people there were."