Diggin’ Deep on UFC Hamburg - Main card preview

Get the inside scoop on the main card of UFC Hamburg, featuring a pair of top ten light heavyweights clashing in Glover Teixeira and Corey Anderson.

Given the uncertainty at the light heavyweight division, the UFC Hamburg card could either prove to be pivotal for that division or it could mean very little. There have already been talk that Shogun Rua could end up as Daniel Cormier’s next opponent for the light heavyweight belt, though few have been taking those claims seriously. Nonetheless, if there is a sliver of hope for that happening, that makes the main event something to keep an eye on more than the usual European main event. Plus, the co-main event features two other prominent light heavyweights. Given the injury history of Rua and Alexander Gustafsson, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility the winner of the co-main event between Glover Teixeira and Corey Anderson could sneak into title picture. Then again, both could contests could mean very little in the long run. Gotta love the way the UFC functions today….

The main card of UFC Hamburg begins on FS1 at 2:00 PM ET/11:00 AM PT on Sunday.

Glover Teixeira (27-6) vs. Corey Anderson (10-4), Light Heavyweight

It seems like another lifetime ago that Teixeira was riding a 20-fight win streak, looking like an absolute juggernaut. Since that time, Teixeira has gone 5-4, looking increasingly frail with every appearance. That doesn’t mean Teixeira doesn’t have anything to offer anymore, but the 38-year old no longer seems like he’s capable of challenging for the belt.

Teixeira still has a lot of the tools that made him such a monster to deal with in his prime. He still has the power to put away his opponent with a single punch. He’s still one of the better wrestlers at 205 too. However, Teixeira has lost a step. Given he never had a lot of speed to begin with, Teixeira is about as glacial as they come at this point. Despite that, Teixeira’s boxing in the pocket is still effective thanks to his innate timing on the counter while supplemented by a steady supply of low kicks.

The UFC has tried to push Anderson to the upper echelon only for his chin to betray him, three of his four losses coming via KO. If Anderson could solve his chin – and tweek his head movement – he’d be everything the UFC wants in a rising 205er. He puts together slick boxing combinations while pushing a fast pace that most light heavyweights can’t keep up with. If his opponent is a threat on the feet, Anderson has proven to be a solid wrestler too. Just that damn chin….

This may be the last chance of Anderson for the UFC to remain behind him. They have wanted him to have a breakout performance for the last several years and they almost had that when the judges robbed him against Shogun Rua. Will he do that here? Even though Teixeira’s chin appears to be declining with his speed, his chin used to be made of granite. He can still take a punch. To break it down as easy as I can: Teixeira’s power + Anderson’s weak chin = the status quo for the top of the division. Teixeira via KO of RD2

Vitor Miranda (12-6) vs. Abu Azaitar (13-2-1), Middleweight

This may seem like a bit of an odd matchup to have so near the top of the card, but it makes more sense when you realize the debuting Azaitar is out of Germany. We all know they have to give the hosting country some love, even if Azaitar has a disturbing past.

The other thing they have to do is give their home boy a shot at victory and they’ve done so in lining him up opposite of Miranda. It isn’t that Miranda is a walk in the park, but he’s heavily reliant on securing the KO blow to win. If he can’t do it, he lacks the combination striking or wrestling to comfortably pull out decisions. He’s not a horrible grappler, though most of his skills are focused on the defensive end upon the mat. The former kickboxer is particularly accurate early in the contest and shows a tremendous killer instinct once he has hurt his opponent. However, Miranda is also 39 now and never had a great gas tank to begin with.

Azaitar is quite the contrast of Miranda. Whereas Miranda used to compete at heavier divisions, Azaitar is moving up from welterweight. Where Miranda is methodical, Azaitar can be very wild. Miranda prefers space to operate, Azaitar likes to close the distance and fight in the clinch. Nobody would classify Azaitar as a ground specialist at this point, but he has improved his timing on his takedowns in addition to expanding to mix just trips from the clinch.

Though Miranda put together a nice little three-fight win streak a little while back, he has always been expendable to the UFC. I’m not discounting the possibility of Miranda clocking him upside the head should Azaitar give him enough space to operate, but I like Azaitar’s aggression to create problems for the former kickboxer. Azaitar via decision

Marcin Tybura (16-4) vs. Stefan Struve (28-10), Heavyweight

It isn’t hard to see what the matchmakers were thinking with this contest. Tybura and Struve are both big men from Europe who not that long ago headlined Fight Night cards abroad. They both lost those contests, then followed those up with another loss to put both on two-fight losing streaks. Yeah, it isn’t hard to see what Mick Maynard and Sean Shelby were thinking.

Struve is the more familiar name to fans. He’s been around for close to a decade and it’s hard to forget a seven-foot athlete outside of the NBA. He appears to have moved on from his heart issues that took out of action for a while, but he is still incredibly hittable. Some would say chinny, but there have been several contests where Struve didn’t go down easy. For a brief time, Struve was trying to emphasize his reach by staying on the outside and throwing a jab with regularity, but he’s returned to his roots in pressing the action with power shots as potshotting goes against his type. Perhaps the most underrated part of his arsenal is his submission game, owning 17 career submission victories, including five in the UFC.

Despite that, it’s hard to see Tybura being submitted given his own prowess on the ground. The Pole made his bones as a submission specialist on the European circuit, though he has struggled to do so in the UFC due to some lackluster wrestling, relying on trips or simply dragging them to the ground. Fortunately, Tybura has supplemented that with a still improving kickboxing game. He’s a better athlete than he looks, capable of blasting the opposition with a brutal head kick or wearing them down with simple boxing combinations.

This is a difficult fight to call. Tybura doesn’t possess the punching prowess or frame to present the type of problems that typically plague Struve. However, Struve’s recent wins have been less than inspiring, disposing of a shot Minotauro Nogueira and Bigfoot Silva in addition to Daniel Omielanczuk. Tybura is better than all those fighters were at the time they faced Struve. Given Tybura is good at finding whatever he can to supplement his volume – whether it be low kicks or fighting in the clinch – I figure he’ll find some way to escape with a victory. Tybura via decision

Danny Roberts (15-3) vs. David Zawada (16-3), Welterweight

A neck injury to Alan Jouban put a halt to one of the front runners for Fight of the Night honors. Roberts was able to stay on the card when Zawada stepped up on short notice to provide a live underdog. It may not be the same without Jouban, but this should still be a fun contest.

Roberts hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations many placed upon the former professional boxer, but that doesn’t mean he’s been a disappointment either. Rather than developing into a top-flight welterweight, he’s become a fun action fighter who is held back by his weak chin. Roberts has been able to find success due to his own striking skills – he’s very efficient with high kicks – and possesses an active guard from his back.

Zawada has some of the same issues that plague Roberts, such as a questionable chin and suspect head movement. However, Zawada isn’t quite as technical with his footwork as Roberts, relying more on catching his opponent by surprise with his aggression. He’s solid in the clinch, using any available limb to do damage and can hit the occasional takedown. However, his own takedown defense has proven to be a major problem.

Roberts shouldn’t be mistaken for a technical savant – too many times he’s walked himself into the fence – but he’s tighter than Zawada thus far and should have a sizeable reach advantage. I could still see Zawada securing the win, but the Brit should find a way to walk out of Germany with a W. Roberts via TKO of RD2

Nasrat Haqparast (8-2) vs. Marc Diakiese (12-2), Lightweight

Diakiese looked like the next big thing at lightweight for a while. He won his first three UFC contests, including an impressive beatdown of Teemu Packalen in a mere 30 seconds. Then upon receiving a step up in competition, the physically gifted athlete learned he can’t just rely on being physically superior to his opposition. Diakiese possesses extreme power in his fists and an explosive double leg, but there isn’t enough diversity in his attack. Opponents figured him out and worked around his strengths by pressing him against the cage and wearing him out.

Haqparast isn’t quite the athlete Diakiese is, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of raw talent to work with. He already displayed better grappling chops than anyone expected upon his UFC debut when he was able to avoid the multiple submission attempts of Marcin Held. However, his bread-and-butter is still his powerful striking which he has been honing with the legendary Rafael Cordeiro. At 22, he’s also one of the youngest members of the roster.

Very few have heard of Haqparast, meaning Diakiese is the betting favorite. However, Diakiese didn’t seem to learn much from his loss to Drakkar Klose, leading to another loss against Daniel Hooker. The other thing worth noting was the athletic advantage Diakiese had over his first three UFC opponents. It’s fair to say Haqparast is the most athletic opponent he has faced thus far. I’m going out on a limb and picking the German southpaw to upset Diakiese. Haqparast via KO of RD2